Perhaps the most important part of the Philadelphia season to date has been the excellent play of Carter Hart. After a couple down seasons, he looked to be regaining the form he showed in his first couple of years in the league. Then we got this news:

Well, scratch that. The Flyers announced that they've placed Hart (upper body) on injured reserve.

Additionally, they've recalled Olle Lycksell from the Phantoms and placed Max Willman on waivers. https://t.co/EFf8pbXiTj

— Olivia Reiner (@ReinerOlivia) December 28, 2022

Coach John Tortorella would go on to explain that Hart is in concussion protocols, but could return soon. Hart practiced Wednesday and that was his next step in the protocols to return. As long as all goes well, he could be back in games in the very near-term.

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Florida gave an update on Aleksander Barkov:

Sasha Barkov has shed the yellow, non-contact jersey. He's going to be a full participant at #FlaPanthers practice.

— Colby Guy (@ColbyDGuy) December 28, 2022

The team said after practice that he, Radko Gudas, and Aaron Ekblad may all play Thursday night when the team hosts Montreal. Florida is 3-7 in their last 10 games as the team sits nine points out of a playoff spot (as of Wednesday afternoon). They can ill-afford to keep losing key players to injuries and will need everyone healthy to have a hope of reaching the postseason.

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Colorado, and winger Valeri Nichushkin, got more bad news:

#Avs Val Nichushkin has re-injured his surgically repaired ankle, Jared Bednar confirmed. He does not have a timeline for his return.

— Kyle Fredrickson (@kylefredrickson) December 28, 2022

Nathan MacKinnon was back at practice, which is a good start, but players just keep falling off the roster. It is such a shame for Nichushkin, who had really turned into a premier two-way superstar in the league.

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With Torey Krug's recent injury news, this is an important update for St. Louis and fantasy owners alike:

Perunovich (shoulder) not taking any contact but he's certainly participating in all the drills today, and it's a full scale practice. #stlblues

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) December 28, 2022

If Scott Perunovich can get into the lineup in the next couple of weeks, he could head right to one of the power plays. This is a player to watch if you're in deeper fantasy formats and are desperate on the blue line.

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Pittsburgh blew a 4-0 lead as Detroit tied the game 4-4 as Detroit scored two in the second and two in the third to push it to overtime. Jake Walman scored his second of the season to give the Red Wings the two points in one of the wildest games of the season.

Dylan Larkin, Jonatan Berggren, David Perron, and Joe Veleno also scored for the Wings.

Walman finished the game with that goal on three shots, four blocks, a hit, and 20:44 in ice time. He now has 19 shots and 14 blocks in his last six games, and he's averaged over 20 minutes a night in those contests. This is a defenceman I was hoping to see some progression from this year, and it genuinely appears he's taking the next step. More of this the rest of the season and Detroit may have found another top-4 defenceman.

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Andrei Vasilievskiy got his shutout spoiled late but he saved 25 of 26 he faced from Montreal in Tampa Bay's 4-1 win. Brayden Point scored twice, giving him 19 goals on the year. It keeps him above a point-per-game pace as well.

Victor Hedman had two assists, a shot, a block, and a pair of hits in a well-rounded fantasy performance.

Justin Barron had 15:37 in ice time, managing a shot and a hit, in his first game of the season with Montreal.

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Patrice Bergeron tipped a Hampus Lindholm shot with just over four minutes left in Boston's game in New Jersey to help the Bruins to a 3-1 victory. Pavel Zacha tallied the empty-netter to seal the game.

Nico Hischier scored New Jersey's long goal, his 14^th of the season. He took a hard hit from Charlie McAvoy in the first period and seemed a bit shaken. That he returned to score was a good sign.

Linus Ullmark had another strong game, saving 30 of 31 shots for his 20^th win of the season (in 23 starts, mind you).

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Connor Bedard had seven points in Canada's trouncing of Germany at the World Juniors on Wednesday night. Thought that was worth at least a mention.

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There are a number of players for whom 2022 was a breakout year in one way or another: Tage Thompson had a good first half of the 2021-22 season, but from January 1^st, 2022, to the end of the campaign, he had 26 goals and 48 points in 46 games. That was a precursor to what he would accomplish thus far in 2022-23; Cole Caufield came alive once Martin St. Louis was hired and he's been top-10 in the league in goals per minute since that point, ranking just behind Kirill Kaprizov and just ahead of Connor McDavid; Bo Horvat had multiple 20-goal seasons but reached 30 goals for the first time last year and he's sixth in goals per minute in calendar 2022; Rasmus Dahlin stands just outside the top-5 defence scorers on a per-minute basis in calendar 2022 as well. There are numerous players who've taken a big leap forward and fantasy owners who held faith in those players are reaping the rewards.

Seeing as this is my last Ramblings of 2022 – Happy early New Year's Eve, everyone – I thought I'd make some predictions as to whom the breakout stars of 2023 will be. We are going to choose three forwards, two defencemen, and one goalie. Data will be taken from our Frozen Tools, Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey, or Corey Sznajder's Patreon for more tracking data.

There are some names that are obvious that will be eschewed. Someone like Dylan Cozens is already seeing their breakout, while the Toronto defence pairing of Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin will be stuck behind Morgan Rielly for top PP time.

Gabriel Vilardi

We could say the breakout has already started but Vilardi's production has slowed considerably since the start of the season. He had 13 points in 11 games through October but has just 10 points in 26 games since. He has already set a career-high in goals and tied a career-high in points and still has over half the season to go.

There are reasons to assume a breakout is coming besides just the production. Evolving Hockey has him leading all Kings forwards in expected goals impact at even strength this season, ranking around the 90^th percentile in the league. By the tracking data, he's also 90^th percentile this season in scoring chance contributions per 60 minutes (SCC/60) at 5-on-5, or individual scoring chances plus assists on teammate scoring chances. He is playing very well at both ends and his offensive game has taken another step. Of course, we need to see it for another 80 games, but this is a great start.

The issue here could be the Los Angeles depth. They have a top-6 that is fairly set while Quinton Byfield is looking to take another step. It is hard to see him earning 18-19 minutes a night considering Kevin Fiala is under 18 minutes a game this season. However, that doesn't preclude him from a 30-goal, 60-point calendar year and he looks primed to breakout at the ages of 23 and 24.

Cole Perfetti

Like Vilardi, we could say the Perfetti breakout has started but that is also the reason for the prediction of a full-fledged breakout in calendar 2023. Though he's injured right now, his 82-game paces are for 15 goals and 50 points. Ice time is the issue as he's yet to see a single game in 2022-23 with at least 18 minutes in TOI, having been over 17 just twice. If he can cement himself as a staple of this Winnipeg top-6, including prime power-play time, the breakout potential is obvious.

One reason for the prediction is his top-end transition skills. He is over a 61% zone entry carry-in rate and over 23% zone entry passing rate. For this season, those numbers aren't far off from names like Mika Zibanejad and Nikita Kucherov. He still has a way to go to round out his game, namely putting himself in good shooting situations, which he hasn't this year, via HockeyViz:

Learning how to navigate prime scoring areas will come with experience. There is a lot to like here, though, and his recent usage speaks to a lot of upside in the next 12 months if he can earn some more ice time and hone his shooting talents.

Ross Colton

This was one of my breakouts for the 2022-23 season and things haven't really gone to plan. He is on pace to crack 20 goals again, but he's skated under 12 minutes a game on the campaign as he's been largely stuck in the bottom-6 for Tampa Bay. However, as I write this, the Lightning are planning to line him up next to Steven Stamkos for Wednesday night's game and that was what I had envisioned from the outset of the season (if not on the top line). Whether it sticks or not, we'll see, but it's a start.

The impetus for declaring breakout potential was the aforementioned SCC/60 statistic. Last year, he rated closely with names like Viktor Arvidsson, Andrew Mangiapane, and David Pastrnak. Hopes are still high for him as he's continued this SCC/60 trend thus far in 2022-23, posting the same rate of 9.4 per 60 minutes, in line with names like Valeri Nichushkin, Tyler Toffoli, and Vladimir Tarasenko. He has been a bit of a better playmaker, too, so it's not all shots and goals that we should expect.

My hope is that he eventually solidifies a top-6 role with the Lightning and can overtake Brandon Hagel on the top PP unit. That is a lot to ask, but Tampa Bay's power play has struggled a lot at times this year and Hagel would be one of the first contenders to be removed (maybe Brayden Point?). All the tools are here for Colton's production to take off, he just needs a bigger role on the team.

Cam York

Tony DeAngelo presents the wrinkle here. He was signed for two years, which means he should still be around for the 2023-24 season, and that presents a direct roadblock to top power-play minutes for Cam York. However, York has been the number-2 power-play defenceman even when DeAngelo has been in the lineup, and that means the young blue liner is just one step from good production. Not that the Flyers power play is upper-tier or anything, but PP1 minutes will always be important, no matter the roster.

By my eye, I've always wondered why York had a tough time sticking at the NHL level. Yes, he has growth to go through, but it's not as if he's playing hot potato with the puck. His giveaways per 60 minutes are the second fewest of all Flyers defencemen over the last two years and he's tied for the lead among Flyers rearguards in points per minute at 5-on-5. By both expected goals impacts and just by watching him, he seems to create offensively without being poor defensively, which is a rare combination in a young defenceman.

If he can continue the development track he's on, it's hard to imagine how York doesn't become a top pair option for the Flyers by October. My bet is he can do it even earlier. If he can somehow wrangle those PP1 minutes, the breakout potential is there.

Calen Addison

There is likely not much need to expand too much here. Addison, despite some stumbles, has been able to hold on to the top power-play role for Minnesota through their first 30-some games. Matt Dumba is a free agent in the offseason and Alex Goligoski has already seen his role reduced, while he turns 38 years old in the summer. It seems likely that Addison steps into top-4 minutes by October, and my hope is he can do it sooner.

It appears that Addison's problem at 5-on-5 is jumping into the play. He has as many scoring chances (1) in the tracked data this season as Goligoski in 60 more tracked minutes, and as many as Jordan Oesterle in 80 more tracked minutes. In his 33 games, his individual expected goals rate is in the league's 18^th percentile, and that's very bad. Of course, he is another defender that has more growth and if he can figure out how to get involved more offensively rather than just constantly dishing the puck, with his PP1 role, the upside is apparent.

Filip Gustavsson

With Logan Thompson's breakout underway, Spencer Knight not really an option here, and a third option in Pyotr Kochetkov already breaking out, the options are limited. However, Gustavsson has been great for the Wild in the early portions of the season, posting a .920 save percentage and is saving 0.3 goals above expected per 60 minutes, ranking between Igor Shesterkin and Ville Husso.  

This is probably an obvious choice but there are only so many goalies that A) have a reasonable chance of becoming a full-time starter and B) play for a good team. Gustavsson had a couple of solid seasons in the AHL and has had ups-and-downs in the NHL, but is hopefully turning a corner. With Marc-André Fleury signed for another year, there is competition, but Fleury hasn't been elite over the last couple years, either. Gustavsson could wrangle a 65/35 split and the Wild are a playoff team. That is enough for breakout potential.

Who are some of your potential breakouts for calendar 2023? Let us know in the comments.