Ramblings: Kochetkov’s Future, Chicago’s Tank Job, Kakko, Karlsson and more … (Jan. 02)

Dobber

2023-01-02

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Pyotr Kochetkov was named the NHL's rookie of the month for December – and then watched from the bench for the fifth consecutive game as Antti Raanta started for the Hurricanes. Raanta was coming off back-to-back shutouts and so he deserved the start.

The fact of the matter is, the Hurricanes are hot right now. All of the new players have bought into the Brind'Amour system and things are working the way they did last year. If Frederik Andersen wasn't injured, it would have been he who banged out an 8-0-1 run instead of Kochetkov. So when people ask what will the Hurricanes do when Andersen returns, the answer appears to be – it goes back the way it was. I know it seems crazy to send a rookie-of-the-month back down, but Kochetkov is only 23. He'll be up next year and the team will sign a mentor to take the pressure off. That mentor will be a "1A" but really, Kochetkov will have every chance to grab the starting role officially (just without the pressure of having that label put on it). Kochetkov will also be around for the playoffs, ready to start Game 2 if and when Andersen blows Game 1. If Andersen doesn't blow Game 1 – then the problem is solved anyway. Win-win.

Andersen and Raanta started off somewhat poorly because the team around them did (by their standards, as they started 9-5-1 but are 16-1-5 since). Now that the team is gelling, both goaltenders are going to be just fine. Andersen, by the way, could very well be that "1A" noted above, provided he takes a bit of a pay cut. I doubt he would do that, so the team may look to someone like a Semyon Varlamov or Cam Talbot. An older goaltender with decent skills who could play 55 games if needed, or be fine with 35 games if Kochetkov shows he can handle it. Hell, Varlamov has been doing that for two years now with the Islanders. James Reimer is another solid option.

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Raanta picked up his fifth win in a row. Three rather weakish starts (one "RBS" or "Really Bad Start") sandwiching the two shutouts. All four lines were dominant last night, take a look:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
11:1521.3STAAL – FAST – MARTINOOK01-17370.013572.2
10:5020.5STASTNY – NECAS – SVECHNIKOV00011761.1201164.5
10:0819.2TERAVAINEN – AHO – JARVIS02-27558.313959.1
7:2614.1STEPAN – NOESEN – KOTKANIEMI1013175.09375.0

A big part of the Carolina surge is the Jordan Staal line clicking. But also, Stefan Noesen is earning his keep as an NHLer and Derek Stepan is finally chipping in on the score sheet. It doesn't hurt to have Sebastian Aho back and healthy too.

Aho tallied two points in his fourth game back from injury. He was held pointless the first two upon his return, but has three points and nine SOG in the ensuing two games.

Noesen added two points of his own, and he now sits second on the team in Pts/60 with a solid 2.6. The 29-year-old took his time earning a regular NHL spot, but he's here now. The ice time is still a low 12:38 per game, which makes him an unreliable add for the longer term. But when he's out there, he's putting up points. In fact, his 82-game pace is for 46 of them. It took him six years to figure out the AHL and begin dominating that level, culminating in a 48-goal, 85-point effort in just 70 games last season for the Chicago Wolves. Some players just take much, much longer to figure it out. Usually, NHL teams stop caring or giving players chances by the time they're in their late 20s. Thankfully for Noesen, that wasn't the case with Carolina this year. Can he get more ice time? Not without a key injury hitting the roster, no. But if a winger in the top six goes down I could see him getting a look.

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Jesper Bratt had gone pointless in six of eight games prior to Friday. The last time that happened to him was in October of 2021. Seeing him post three points last night should mean that he has put that little slump behind him. Hopefully some of you were able to buy low on him last week in a trade.

Damon Severson continues to struggle. He's seeing tons of ice time on the power play. In fact, he saw 2:53 on Sunday while Dougie Hamilton saw 3:16. However, that number is quite misleading. Keep this in mind: It's one thing to get three minutes of PP time with Tatar, Hischier, Bratt and Hughes. It's another thing altogether when your three minutes are with Wood, Haula, Sharangovich and Zetterlund. Huge dropoff there, and Severson is stuck quarterbacking that.

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Kaapo Kakko is back on the Mika Zibanejad line and this time instead of a bunch of close calls and near misses, he's putting points on the board. Two assists Sunday gives him eight points in his last nine games. He's more involved in the games at this level this season, with career-high rates for shot volume, Hits and BLKS. Kakko is only scratching the surface, and each time he does this he makes us think that this could be the start of it all.

It’s also worth noting that the other member of that line, Chris Kreider, posted a season-high eight shots on goal (two points). He has 14 SOG in the last two games. He's obviously hungry to get back on track.

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After going pointless in his first 16 games after taking a season off, Eric Staal has 10 points in his last 15 games as a fourth liner for the Panthers. He leads Florida in even-strength defensive zone starts by percentage and is seeing no PP time, making this accomplishment pretty impressive.

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The Chicago Blackhawks remain the only team without 10 wins and without 80 goals scored. They started off 6-5-3, but are 2-19-1 since then, which is an embarrassment. But not unexpected. We all saw this coming when Kyle Davidson did his nine-month fire sale in about nine days back in the summer. It's an obvious tank and has been from the start. Odds of winning the draft lottery is 18.5% if you finish last, which Chicago will unless they win all of their games moving forward, it seems. But the No.2 overall pick (projected to be Adam Fantilli) is an amazing potential star himself. If we consider Conor Bedard as the next Connor McDavid (as I do), I think Fantilli playing the role of this year's Jack Eichel is about right. Think Eichel's upside without the proneness to injury.

But what if Chicago falls two spots and down to third? Well, then they have Matvei Michkov. Assuming he can be brought out of Russia in a timely manner (no guarantee, these days), he could be another Kirill Kaprizov in terms of offensive upside. So Davidson did his homework. He knew that if he could get his team to last place in the standings he would secure himself a superstar.

EDIT: Changes to draft lottery rules make it so that Chicago would fall no further than the third overall pick (corrected an earlier note that indicated they ‘could’ fall to fourth)

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Two more points for Erik Karlsson Sunday gives him 53 on the season and a tie for fourth in the entire league as we approach the midway point. Truly remarkable.

League leaders in Even-Strength Points:

Erik Karlsson – 39

Connor McDavid – 34

Sidney Crosby – 34

Jason Robertson – 32

Elias Pettersson – 32

Wow.

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Interesting NHL notes about the 2022 calendar year:

There were 8,984 regular-season goals scored across 1,403 games in 2022 (including 97 shootout-deciding goals), the most in a calendar year in League history. The 6.4 goals-per-game rate in 2022 was the highest in a calendar year in nearly 30 years (6.4 G/GP in 1994).

Fans threw their hats 117 times in 2022 (109 regular-season season hat tricks, eight in the playoffs) – the eighth year in League history with as many and first outside the 1980s. The others: 156 in 1981, 138 in 1988, 126 in 1984, 123 in 1983, 121 in 1985, 121 in 1982 and 118 in 1986.

Eight players scored 50+ regular-season goals in 2022 (Auston Matthews, Connor McDavid, David Pastrnak, Jason Robertson, Kirill Kaprizov, Tage Thompson, Leon Draisaitl & Alex Ovechkin) – the sixth time that has ever happened. The other instances came in 1993 (9), 1992 (9), 1983 (9), 1989 (8) and 1985 (8).

The NHL had 29 players with 40+ goals in the regular-season in 2022, the most ever (ahead of 27 in 1982).

A total of 648 games were won in come-from-behind fashion in 2022 with 611 of those coming in the regular season – both totals the most in NHL history.

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NHL Edge Tracking Technology: As of Dec. 19, the hardest shot in a regular-season game in 2022 was by Tage Thompson (101.69 mph) on Nov. 8. The longest distance travelled in a regular-season game that ended in regulation was by Thomas Chabot (24,747.67 ft) on March 14 and when including contests that required overtime, Connor McDavid skated the longest distance at 28,312.67 feet Dec. 15. McDavid also had the most total distance skated by a player in regular-season games at 1,609,733.65 feet.

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See you next Monday.

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