I have a daily routine where I run the Report Generator 3.0 on Dobber's Frozen Tools and download it into an Excel spreadsheet for both the nightly games and the season to date (It is only available via Patreon but well worth the $5/month). Once I download the files, I sort the spreadsheet, run my formula for my player game ratings and then look at each team for about 45-60 minutes to see if anything jumps out. 

Two of the stats included are CF% and xGF% for each player for the seasonal statistics. I've been really questioning their relevance on an individual skater as collectively it is more a team stat than a player stat and both are fairly useless as a game stat in my opinion.

This article is more an exercise in seeing if there is anything with taking the difference between xGF% and CF% and determining if a player's production is under or over where they should be. After perusing a few seasons worth of stats, I thought there might be a pattern.

I'm going to go through each Western Team and highlight some of the most under-performing (UP) or over-performing (OP) skaters as per the difference. I will try to draw a conclusion at the end of the article.

(Minimum 20 GP)

UP indicates that a player or team is playing better than they are on paper.

OP indicates that a player or team is not playing up to what their numbers portray.

Here we go:

Anaheim

As a team Anaheim are over performing to date with a CF% of 43.13 and a xGF% of 39.42, which would have them with an OP of negative 3.71. This can also be the barometer for each player on the team as well.

Frank Vatrano has an OP of negative 7.6 after putting up six goals and nine assists in 37 games as he has a CF% of 42.8 but only a 35.2 xGF%. I assumed Vatrano would be in the opposite camp as his 5on5 shooting percentage is low at 6.6 along with a PDO of 981.

The Ducks don't have a player under-performing and the best on the roster is Cam Fowler with an OP of negative 1.9, followed by Mason McTavish and Adam Henrique at negative 2.1.

My hope is that this gives us a little indication that the players who are a little better than what they are showing on the Ducks are Fowler, McTavish and Henrique while Vatrano is not playing even close to where his stats indicate he should be.

Arizona

The Coyotes are not surprisingly over performing with an OP of negative 1.54 based off of a 42.9 CF% and a xGF% of 41.36.

The top players on Arizona are Nick Schmaltz with an UP of 3.2, followed by Nick Bjugstad at 2.7.

The players with the biggest OP are Zack Kassian at negative 7.5 and Dylan Guenther at negative 6.7.

Calgary

Calgary has an OP of negative 1.75 based on a CF% of 55.61 and an xGF% of 53.86.

Noah Hanifin is tops on the Flames with an UP of 3.6 followed by Rasmus Andersson at 2.7. I was expecting Jonathan Huberdeau to be a little higher but he's only at 0.3.

Nikita Zadorov at negative 5.6, Michael Stone at negative 5.3 and Milan Lucic at negative 5.0 are the bottom three OP for Calgary.

Chicago

Chicago is right where they need to be with an OP of negative 0.23 based off of a CF% of 42.28 and a xGF% of 42.05.

Jujhar Khaira has the highest UP on the team at 4.5 and he's well ahead of Seth Jones at 1.1 and Jake McCabe and Jason Dickinson at 0.9.

Jonathan Toews is at the bottom with an OP of negative 3.9, narrowly worse than Jack Johnson at negative 3.7.

Colorado

There might be a little worry in Colorado this season as they are actually above where they should be to this point with an OP of negative 1.25.

Devon Toews has the highest UP on the team at 3.2, followed by J.T. Compher at 1.7 and Cale Makar at 0.9.

Evan Rodrigues has the worst OP with a negative 7.3, followed by Josh Manson at negative 4.7 and Samuel Girard at negative 3.5.

The club has had a load of injuries this season and don't have nearly the depth that they had in prior years.

Dallas

The Stars are pretty much dead on where they should be with a small OP of negative 0.17.

Joe Pavelski has an UP of 4.4 followed by Roope Hintz at 3.2 and Jason Robertson at 3.1. This must be a scary proposition for the opposition that this line can be even better.

Denis Gurianov is at the bottom with an OP of negative 8.7, followed by Joel Kirivanta at negative 4.9 and Luke Glendening at negative 3.7.

Edmonton

The Oilers are almost even with a small OP of negative 0.15.

Good news for the Oilers is that Connor McDavid is tops with an UP of 3.1, followed by Leon Draisaitl at 2.4 and Zach Hyman at 2.1. There is more to give from the Oiler's top guns.

At the bottom are Devin Shore with a negative 2.7, Klim Kostin a negative 2.4 and Dylan Holloway with a negative 2.0.

Los Angeles

The Kings have been slightly under-performing as they have an UP of 1.01.

With one of the biggest UPs so far, Rasmus Kupari has a 9.6 based off of a CF% of 48.3 and a xGF% of 57.9. Gabriel Vilardi is next at 4.7, followed by Jaret Anderson-Dolan at 2.4.

Blake Lizotte is at the bottom for the Kings with an OP of negative 2.9, followed by Adrian Kempe at negative 1.8.

Minnesota

The Wild should be marginally better as they have an UP of 1.20 on a CF% of 50.7 and an xGF% of 51.9.

Jordan Greenway has the highest UP of 5.2, followed by Joel Eriksson Ek at 3.8 and Frederick Gaudreau at 2.5.

Sam Steel is by himself at the bottom with an OP of negative 2.8, followed by Kirill Kaprizov at negative 1.3 then Jonas Brodin and Connor Dewar at negative 1.2.

Nashville

The Predators are right about even with an UP of 0.2 from a CF% of 49.58 and a xGF% of 49.78.

Mark Jankowski comes out on top for Nashville with an UP of 3.8, followed by Mattias Ekholm at 3.4 and Yakov Trenin at 2.7

Roman Josi comes out with the worst OP on Nashville at negative 3.6, followed by Colton Sissons at negative 2.8 and Mikael Granlund at negative 2.1.

Once again, I will mention that the purpose of this article is only to hopefully come up with a simple calculation of two existing stats, which might point out some inflated production to date. This isn't to say that Roman Josi is having is struggling. I don't watch him enough to give that opinion and would rely on some Nashville fans who watch him every game.

San Jose

The Sharks are one of the most underperforming teams in the West with an UP of 2.6.

Matt Benning leads the team with an UP of 7.7, followed by Noah Gregor at 7.2 and Logan Couture at 6.8.

At the other end of the spectrum are Oskar Lindblom at negative 3.1, Jaycob Megna at negative 2.3 and Karlsson at negative 1.4.

With Karlsson almost at even, it's a good sign that he can maintain his output if healthy. 

Seattle

The Kraken are over performing but not by as much as I would have thought. They have an OP of negative 0.56, which is almost even. I'm going to guess that number has regressed closer to even after losing eight of their last 11 games.

Branden Tanev is tops on the Kraken with an UP of 4.0, followed by Matty Beniers at 2.9 and Jordan Eberle at 2.0.

The bottom dweller in Seattle is Andre Burakovsky at negative 6.0, followed by Alex Wennberg at negative 4.1 and Oliver Bjorkstrand at negative 3.9.

St. Louis

The Blues are under performing with an UP of 0.96 from a CF% of 45.26 and an xGF% of 46.22.

Calle Rosen is at the top of the UP pile at 7.4, followed by Niko Mikkola at 4.7 and Robert Bortuzzo at 3.6.

Nathan Walker is at the bottom with an OP of negative 3.3, followed by Torey Krug at negative 1.7 and both Colton Parayko and Jordan Kyrou at negative 1.2.

Vancouver

It's a bad sign for the Canucks that they are one game under .500 and overachieving with an OP of negative 1.9.

Dakota Joshua leads the UP crowd in Vancouver at 2.7 followed by Elias Pettersson at 2.5 and then Curtis Lazar at 1.8.

On the flip side there isn't a shortage of OP candidates on the Canucks as J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser share the bottom at negative 5.9, followed by Quinn Hughes at negative 5.2.

Once again, it's surprising to see Hughes so much in the negative but to be honest, he hasn't played to the level that one would expect from a defender with 30 points in 32 games. He's been good but not as good as he looks on paper.

Vegas

According to this, the Golden Knights are one of the most underperforming teams on this list with an UP of 3.82 from a CF% of 48.66 and an xGF% of 52.48.

Alex Pietrangelo is tops with an UP of 8.6, followed by Alec Martinez at 7.3 and then Mark Stone at 6.3.

Phil Kessel is the only regular in the lineup with a negative 1.3.

Winnipeg

The Jets are under performing slightly with an UP of 1.07 from a CF% of 50.14 and xGF% of 51.21.

Jansen Harkins is tops with an UP of 7.6, followed by Morgan Barron at 6.3 and Adam Lowry at 5.1.

Blake Wheeler is at the bottom with a negative 3.6, followed by Brendan Dillon at negative 1.9, Saku Maenalanen at negative 1.8 and Kyle Connor at negative 1.7.

In conclusion, I think there is some value here as some of the players who come out on top on teams are not necessarily fantasy worthy, but still have value to the team itself. Conversely, some of the players with OP (negative) who we don't necessarily see play on a regular basis are not quite the player on the defensive side of things that we would hope.

I do think it's necessary to break it down by team as the number only is comparable to other members on that same team. The value is only in the outliers.

CF% (a shot directed towards the net) doesn't care about the quality of the chance, whereas xGF% takes into account where the puck was at the time it was directed towards the net and places a value on that shot. The difference in the two is significant because if the quality is higher than just a simple shot it will be reflected and if it is lower it will be reflected, from both ends of the ice.

The reality for third and fourth line players with a positive UP isn't that they might produce more, it's that the quality of chances they are giving up in their own end are inflated by CF% on its own and probably represents their defensive abilities. The opposite holds true for players with a negative OP, in that the chances they are giving up while on the ice are of higher quality than CF% holds to account. This is why we see J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes, Blake Wheeler, Roman Josi etc. listed in the negative as outliers.

Thanks for reading and if you have any questions or players you’d like me to look at please message or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.