The St. Louis Blues, as of Monday afternoon, are five points out of a playoff spot. Their goaltending has a bottom-5 save percentage in the league and all those goals against is making it hard for the team to make up ground. Things have gotten worse as the team announced Vladimir Tarasenko was going to the injured reserve for a hand injury suffered on the weekend:  

Tarasenko to IR, Neighbours has been called up . #stlblues

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) January 2, 2023

To continue with the bad news, Ryan O'Reilly will be out at least six weeks with a broken foot:

More bad news from #stlblues: O'Reilly has a broken foot and is also on IR. O'Reilly will be re-evaluated in 6 weeks; Tarasenko (hand injury) will be re-evaluated in 4 weeks.

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) January 2, 2023

This is not a team that can afford to lose two top-6 forwards for a month at this time of year. Both players are unrestricted free agents after this season, too, so just getting them back healthy in time for the trade deadline is important to monitor. Expect a lot of ice time for guys like Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich, and Brayden Schenn.

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Nicklas Backstrom was practicing for Washington:

Nicklas Backstrom is out of Covid protocols and is on the ice for Capitals practice. He's in a normal full contact jersey.

— Samantha Pell (@SamanthaJPell) January 2, 2023

Both Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie were full participants in practice as well. We are just waiting for the team to activate these guys and it will be a big boost for the Capitals. They are effectively adding an entire scoring line and are already in a playoff position.

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Patrik Laine was back at practice for Columbus:

Looks like Patrik Laine would return to play Johnny Gaudreau and Kent Johnson based on line rushes today. Kirill Marchenko with Eric Robinson and Cole Sillinger, while Carson Meyer appears to be the odd man out. #CBJ

— Jeff Svoboda (@JacketsInsider) January 2, 2023

Injuries and illness have held Laine to just 20 games this season, though he does have nine goals in those contests. The team had him skating on a line with Johnny Gaudreau and Kent Johnson, for what it's worth.

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Both Nikolaj Ehlers and Cole Perfetti look close to returning:

To summarize:

Nate Schmidt on the ice – regular white jersey.

Perfetti, Ehlers – light blue jerseys, guessing that means they can take contact but not likely in line-up.

Wheeler, Maenalanen- non-contact red jerseys.

Josh Morrissey not on the ice.

— Mitchell Clinton (@MitchellClinton) January 2, 2023

The piling of injuries has kept Winnipeg to a 5-5 record over their last 10 games but if they can start getting their stars back, things look more promising. Let's hope Ehlers, in particular, returns as the winger we know he can be in the fantasy game.

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Tristan Jarry left the Winter Classic yesterday late in the first period with an apparent lower-body injury and did not return. We will update when we get more information but it is Casey DeSmith's net for now. Pittsburgh only has two games over the next seven days so depending on the issue, it may not be a huge deal in the fantasy game.

Jake DeBrusk scored twice in the third period to lift Boston to a 2-1 win over Pittsburgh. His 82-game pace for goals this season is now 36. This is a very good fantasy season for the Boston winger.

Linus Ullmark saved 26 of 27 in the win, his 21^st in 24 starts on the campaign.

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There were only three games on Monday so that means we have a chance to do a little bit of a look ahead. One of my Ramblings last week was looking for breakouts in 2023 as we saw in 2022 with players like Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield. For these Ramblings, I'm just going to list some players for whom I'm paying extra close attention in 2023. They are not necessarily potential high-end breakouts, but guys who seem to be turning a corner in a small sample and keeping them in the back of our minds. We are going to look at three forward and two defencemen. Data will be from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise indicated.

Michael Amadio

As of Monday afternoon, Michael Amadio was on a six-game point streak as he had been moved to the top line for Vegas amidst all their injuries. He has four goals and four assists in that span, averaging over 16 minutes a night and 3.3 shots per outing. He had just two points in his first 19 games of the campaign so he's clearly making the most of this opportunity.

Amadio is a player who has intrigued me for a few seasons now. There have been indicators in the past that there is a good offensive player stuffed in that 6'1" frame of his. For instance, from CJ Turtoro's tableau, he had strong shot assist (passes leading to teammate shots) and controlled zone entry numbers with Los Angeles back in 2019-20:

The bubble 2021 season was not kind to him as he split time between Los Angeles and Ottawa, playing fewer than half the games. He rebounded well, however, in his first full season with Vegas in 2021-22 (following a brief stint in Toronto), finishing third on the team in goals per minute at 5-on-5, trailing only Max Pacioretty and Jack Eichel. Also in 2021-22, he finished second among Vegas forwards in expected goals impact at even strength, per Evolving Hockey. Across 380 forwards with at least 500 minutes at even strength last season, Amadio was 35^th by xG impacts, or roughly a 91^st percentile season. He had very good forechecking numbers, per Corey Sznajder's tracking data, and it led to Amadio leading the team's forwards in takeaways per 60 minutes, finishing inside the top-50 across the league.

This year, the strong play has continued. He has the fourth-highest expected goals-for impacts between Golden Knights forwards, in the same neighbourhood as names like David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly, and Filip Forsberg across the NHL. And, finally, he is back to being a good distributor for his line mates. Again from the tracking data referenced above, he is third on the team in primary shot assists per minute, trailing only his line mates:

There have been flashes of skill in many areas over the years and the hope is that he's finally putting together his transition, forechecking, and playmaking abilities into consistent performance. Time will tell if this is all actually assembling to be a true middle-6 winger, but the pieces have been there for a few years now. Maybe all he needed was an extended run with good line mates to finally maintain the confidence he needs? We'll find out in the back half of the season but there are reasons to be optimistic.  

Anton Lundell

My big concern for Anton Lundell in 2022-23 was losing Mason Marchment as his winger. Without Marchment on his flank, Lundell's on-ice goal rate last season at 5-on-5 dropped by a whopping 72% and his expected goal share fell from over 61% to under 52%. That probably shouldn't be a big shock for a rookie center in his age-20 season, but it gave me pause for his sophomore season.

When looking at his performance this year, some of the concern may have been warranted. It has been an injury-plagued season for Lundell and that's not something to be dismissed out of hand. However, his 5-on-5 production per minute has fallen by nearly 66% and the lack of any real power-play role has kept his raw point totals very meagre. There are positive signs, though.

First, his own expected goals impacts have improved from last year, going from a negative impact to a positive one, largely attributable to his defensive play. His primary shot assist rate (13.4 per 60 minutes) is nestled between Matthew Tkachuk (14.3) and Carter Verhaeghe (11.6), comparable to names like Mark Scheifele (13.2) and Johnny Gaudreau (13.6). His carry-in zone entry percentage is similar to players like Troy Terry and Jesper Bratt. In other words, he's doing a lot of little things to create offence, but the points just aren't there.

This is where we need to note that his individual points percentage (IPP) at 5-on-5 is 38.9%, a big decline from 52.6% a year ago. (IPP is simply the rate at which a player garners a point when his team scores. In 2021-22, no forward with over 800 minutes played finished under 40%, for reference on the regression that Lundell should see if he can stay healthy.) Lundell has been a bit inconsistent, but a young, injured player will see those issues. There is still a lot to like here, and fantasy owners should not give up on him just yet.

Ty Dellandrea

The emergence of Ty Dellandrea and Wyatt Johnston has helped the Stars in a big way as forward depth was a problem for them a year ago. They can now roll two good-to-elite scoring lines and a passable third one. Dellandrea, in particular, has been excellent.

From the tracking data, among all players with at least 125 minutes tracked this season, Dellandrea has a scoring chance contribution rate (SCC, or individual scoring chances plus assists on teammate scoring chances) of 11.2 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Across the league, he is tied with Artemi Panarin and Travis Konecny, ahead of names like William Nylander and Leon Draisaitl. We can see this visually as he rates favourably to a couple notable names from Detroit and St. Louis in zone entries leading to scoring chances:

Dellandrea is playing a lot off the rush, and it's creating chances, but sustaining quality offence is another issue. Despite rating so well in scoring chances off entries, his on-ice expected goals for rate is eighth among Dallas forwards. We cannot expect a player with fewer than 70 games of experience to excel in all offensive facets but there are bits and pieces here to get excited about. He seems to be a good playmaker and can create very well off the rush. He needs to learn how to finish a bit better, being a career 7.6% shooter at 5-on-5, but that should come with time.

Dellandrea has several veterans he can learn from in Dallas and he's already showing flashes of being a very good playmaker/creator. There should be lots of optimism for Dellandrea in the fantasy game moving forward, especially in banger leagues as he's on pace for over 130 hits this campaign.

Jake Walman

We are starting to see the signs of Jake Walman becoming a full-fledged top-4 defenceman in the NHL. This is a blue liner who had very good micro-stats in a small sample a year ago as his shots, scoring chance contributions, and controlled zone exit/entry numbers all rated very strongly:

St. Louis decided to move on from him and traded him to Detroit. He started the 2022-23 season injured but has slowly worked his way up the depth chart. He skated just 15:22 in his first seven games when returning from injury back in November but has averaged 18:55 per night over his last 12 contests. In that span, he has 26 shots, 29 blocks, nine hits, and three points. The point production isn't great, but the peripherals are strong for someone still averaging under 19 minutes in TOI. Beyond that, he leads all Detroit defencemen in expected goals-for impact, ranking second in overall expected goals impact. Visually, this is what his impacts have looked like in 2022-23:

Like Lundell, Walman is having an IPP issue that is leading to low production rates at 5-on-5; his IPP is 18.8%, lowest among all Red Wings rearguards. Last season, only 10 of 170 defencemen with at least 800 minutes at 5-on-5 finished under 19% and the league median was 34%. With positive regression should come a lot more point production in the second half, perhaps playing to a 40-point/82-game pace.

The issue for really reaching the next level of fantasy production is top power-play time. He has been earning secondary PP deployment of late, but the team has been rotating defencemen on both units all season long. That could be frustrating for Walman fantasy owners, but he is showing a lot of promise and could still be a useful multi-cat fantasy asset without a prime PP role.

Jake Sanderson

When a team is struggling like Ottawa – seven points out of a playoff spot at time of writing – it's easy to overlook players having great seasons. Tim Stützle, for example, is producing points at a first-line rate while his expected goals impact at even strength have him in the 95^th percentile of NHL forwards. He is turning into a full-fledged superstar.

The same could be said of Jake Sanderson. He leads Ottawa blue liners in points per minute at 5-on-5, tied with names like MacKenzie Weegar and Kris Letang. When we consider that Ottawa has the fourth-lowest goal rate at 5-on-5, that isn't bad. The team has been very unlucky by shooting percentage and if that corrects itself in the second half, Sanderson's production stands a reasonable chance of improvement. He is on pace for 29 points as it is; that number could be closer to 40 with some good fortune.  

One thing Sanderson is doing well, and thus helping the team create offence through the neutral zone, is exiting the defensive zone with control. The league average is 6.45 controlled exits per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Erik Brännström is at 6.5 per 60 and every other Sens blue liner is below average except Sanderson, who sits at 8.3 per 60 minutes, and rates very favourably to Boston's top defenceman:

It should be noted that he also has one of the league's highest rates of puck retrievals leading to zone exits, meaning he's good at digging the puck out in the defensive zone and getting it moving to the opposition's end. He does turn the puck over a lot, and that's something that needs to be cleaned up, but he doesn't even have a half-season's worth of NHL experience. In spite of those turnovers, his expected goals impact at even strength grades out as a top-pair guy this season, ranking inside the 80^th percentile.

With Chabot around, it's unlikely Sanderson earns consistent top PP minutes anytime soon and the Ottawa power play is a prime role. However, the peripherals are reasonable for a rookie, he's showing strong play at both ends, and it may not be long until we're talking about him as an all star.