I hope everyone is doing well in the New Year thus far. It already feels like there has been a ton of news and things to talk about, so let's dive right in.

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In the surprise move of the day the Red Wings waived Jakub Vrana. Vrana is a 25-year-old winger who is coming out of the NHL Player-Assistance program, and has dealt with two major shoulder injuries in the last two years. Over the last few seasons though. Vrana has been the second most efficient goal scorer in the NHL, behind only Auston Matthews.

The decision to put Vrana on waivers may have been pre-determined a few days ago, as one of my league-mates pointed out that a reporter had sleuthed up that Vrana removed all social media ties to the Red Wings in the last week. Now that doesn't tell us whose idea this was in the first place, and why? If the Red Wings look around the league they see that 80% of the league won't be able to fit Vrana into their plans, while the rest are trying to sell off everything that scores in order to make a run at some guy named Connor Bedard (more on him later). They may think they can sneak him through waivers in order to get him back up to speed at the AHL before bringing him up in two years.

The other option is that Vrana was the initiator, wanting to get a fresh start away from Detroit. Either way, despite it not looking like there is an easy option for a team to pick him up on waivers, I think that at least one of the other 31 teams finds a will and a way.

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Speaking of efficient goal scorers, Tage Thompson scored another hat-trick, and is now shooting 19%. Everyone said that last year's 15% was too high, and he would never keep it up, well here we are, and he has not only upped his shot percentage, but his shot rate as well. He has to be capped out at his current 125-point-pace though, right?

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Then there's Auston Matthews, who scored career point number 500 (and 501) last night, becoming the youngest Leaf player to do so. He has clicked very well of late alongside Michael Bunting and William Nylander. Bunting's underlying numbers show he is a good player in his own right, but he is certainly benefiting from playing alongside those two. My salary projections are still in the preliminary stage for the upcoming 2023 free agent class, but if he was to sign an extension right now, the numbers show it approximated at a $7.8 million cap hit. It won't be that high with the Leafs, but he may be taking the Zach Hyman road out of town.

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Looking into Sam Girard, who has been a bit forgotten this year, I think his regression is in a large part based on the fact that he is missing the depth that Colorado had in previous years. This year's team has been devastated by injuries, and is really a top-heavy team at this point. One of the repercussions is that Girard is not doing as well with having to take on more heavy lifting in the defensive zone, and playing with lower quality forwards alongside a lesser defence partner. Exemplifying that, his 5on5 shooting percentage of under 4% is ridiculously low, especially for a good player on a good team. When they inevitably trade for Gudas then Girard gets freed up, then I think we see a rebound in the second half, as that should also line up with the forwards getting healthy. Plus, he’s close to his 400-game breakout threshold. This might just be the bottom of the luck curve at the moment for him.

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Justin Schultz has put up over a 40-point-pace every second season over the last eight seasons. This year his numbers a little inflated because of some extra secondary power play assists. His pace will likely tail off in the second half, but his ice time, and power play time on the top unit should keep him buoyed.

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Pytor Kochetov gets his first start in two weeks, and gives up four goals to the Rangers on 30 shots. Annti Raanta has been (red)lights-out lately, and this likely means Raanta gets the next two, which are easier games against Nashville and Columbus.

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Speaking of hot goalies, Anton Forsberg has played both games in the new year, allowing only one total goal. It may be time for him to steal a few starts from Cam Talbot. The Senators don't have the depth to be a playoff team, so they may be a team to look at more so based on matchup.

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The Montreal Canadiens got David Savard back in the lineup, and scratched their most effective defenceman to make room. That's right, Jonathan Kovacevic is their best defenceman at the moment. Either Martin St. Louis isn't aware of that, or they're buying themselves a bit of contract negotiating power while also subtly taking. It was the Habs' third straight game allowing six goals or more. You may look at their goalies if you really need saves, but that's the only thing I would possibly chase with them.

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Matthew Tkachuk scored a hat-trick last night, but in spite of that he is slowing down in Q2. He's down two-minutes per game, his shot rate has dropped over one per game, and his scoring is following in turn. In spite of the drop, he's still above last-season's scoring pace. It seems that he's settling in overall with Florida as a spectacular fantasy player, similar what he managed to do last season.

The difference this year, is that when Tkachuk is playing with Aleksander Barkov, his numbers are even better than last year. He's also seeing two minutes more of ice time per game, most of that coming with the power play, where he is on pace to top 30 points for the first time. If Barkov is healthy for the second-half of the season, then watch for Tkachuk to put up an even better half from the first one.

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Updating my thoughts on a few standouts from the World Juniors up to the Semi-final matches which are scheduled to be played later today:

Connor Bedard is even better than I realized. I knew he was excellent, I knew he could score and put up gaudy numbers, but I hadn't actually watched him play much in the WHL. Getting to see him in-game and he has that je-ne-sais-quoi that the upper-echelon of the elite players has to change a game.

He's someone that will be drafted in every league next year, and it just depends how early. In on-going dynasty leagues he will be the top entry pick. In new dynasty leagues he is probably a top-five pick, in the conversation with Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Cale Makar, and Igor Shesterkin. In one-year leagues, I will likely let someone else over-draft him, but I would at least start considering him outside of the top-30, once the players like Jake Guentzel, Mat Barzal, and Elias Pettersson are gone.

I was actually expecting some bigger production from Shane Wright, having had some NHL experience, and with a bit of a chip on his shoulders too. He has looked good, and does a ton of little things that impact the game without necessarily always leading to points. He'll be an excellent NHL player, but may not quite be what Fantasy GMs wish for in the long run.

I have a soft spot for Noah Ostlund, but thus far Sweden's other two top centres have impressed me more. Leo Carlsson and Filip Bystedt looked NHL ready with their skill and poise. Bystedt won't have too much competition in San Jose, while Carlsson likely won't have much competition wherever he ends up. They will have shorter wait times than Sweden's other top players in Ostlund, Isak Rosen, and Liam Ohgren.

David Jiricek has been massively impressive, as has the rest of the Czech team. Jiri Kulich is one of those players possibly making the wait time longer for Rosen and Ostlund. Kulich and Jiricek have had some of the best underlying numbers in the tournament. My money is actually on the Czechs today over Sweden. We'll see how that all plays out.

Slovakian goalie Adam Gajan put himself on the map with his incredible tournament. He was draft eligible last year but wasn't selected. He may be in contention to be the top goalie off the board this year, with his size, athleticism, and compete level.

A few of the USA players who have impressed me the most are actually from the 2023 crop. Gavin Brindley and Charlie Stramel are both first round talents. They may be moving up a lot more draft boards as well, and could even end up over-drafted as a result.

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Jagr now has 6PTS in 7GP for Kladno in Tipsport Extraliga. He played 19:21 today. He'd said earlier this year that he was finally considering retiring due to lack of time to train because of off-ice commitments. He played to fill in for injuries and illnesses, and here he is.

— Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) January 3, 2023

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See you next Wednesday!

In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.