Looking Ahead: Ekblad Losing Value
Andrew Santillo
2023-01-06
Happy 2023 everyone! I hope that you all had a very happy and safe New Year's and wishing nothing but the best in 2023. This week has been a difficult one to navigate for most fantasy players out there with the smaller slate for the Winter Classic, along with a high amount of roster moves being made league wide following the break. There's lots to cover so let's dive in!
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Casey DeSmith, G, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 3% of ESPN leagues, 26% Fantrax, 21% Yahoo) – With Pittsburgh starting goaltender expected to miss some time, there's an opportunity to gather some starts from backup DeSmith.
Tristan Jarry started for Pittsburgh in the Winter Classic on Monday but left the game following the first period with a lower-body injury. That's tough news for those rostering Jarry to find a replacement and make up those starts, but at times I think the best thing to do when this happens is look to the backup.
We know that Jarry did not travel with the organization for their two-game road trip this week so it looks as though DeSmith should be full-go for starts. I would imagine we see him start on Sunday versus Arizona, and while he might not see much volume in that matchup, he is well in line for a win versus an Arizona. This season DeSmith has a 4-7-1 record with 2.99 goals against average and a .911 save percentage and I've often thought the Penguins have wanted to use both him and Jarry more as a tandem. Following Pittsburgh's Sunday matchup in Arizona they will be home on Tuesday January 10 to host the Canucks, where we will have to see if Jarry is healthy enough to start. For now, I think DeSmith makes the case for a good fix for the next few days.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Phillip Danault, C, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 60% of ESPN leagues, 54% Fantrax, 32% Yahoo) – The top here says, "Buy now, sit back, and enjoy the production" and that is exactly what Danault can offer any fantasy roster.
I hadn't written about Danault in previous weeks with the rotation of the Los Angeles lines and the higher roster numbers over on ESPN, but now I think is the perfect time to highlight is play and make an addition to your fantasy roster. Danault has nine points in his last eight games and is shooting 15%, which is more than sustainable for him. Let's not forget this is a player who had a career season last year with 51 points in 79 games, a point mark that I think he can match or exceed this season with 29 points in 41 games already.
Danault and his line is often used in more of a shutdown role at times, but I still like the upside here with him skating alongside Viktor Arvidsson and Alex Iafallo both at even strength and on the man advantage. This is also a Kings club that splits their two power-play units at a near 50/50 time on ice so the special teams element for Danault is also in play, which adds to his value for the season. I think Danault makes an excellent addition for the consistency that he'll bring to a roster throughout the remainder of the fantasy season.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Morgan Rielly, D, Toronto Maple Leafs (Rostered in 88% of ESPN leagues, 97% of Fantrax, 95% Yahoo) – We've had Odd Man Outs from injury, a head coach, even line shuffling, but this may be the first on the season coming from the way a club is running out their power-play units.
I'd have to think it's been a roller coaster ride for those rostering Morgan Rielly this season. Sustained an injury that forced him to miss some time, sort of hit a cold patch on offense, and now it looks like his fantasy and DFS value just took a hit by way of the power play. Toronto has sent out a five-forward power-play unit the past two games, taking Rielly off and replacing him with Michael Bunting. For Rielly, a player with no goals on the season, losing that power-play exposure for first or second assists is not ideal. If Toronto continues to leave him off, I don't think it would be hard to imagine Rielly finishing the regular season well under his points total from last year.
There is still a positive(s) though for Rielly. First being is that he still skates on the top defensive pairing for the Leafs. Not going to go into how good of a spot that is, I'm going to guess here that everyone reading this knows how good of a line Toronto's top line is. The other positive though is that if Toronto does decide to go back to quarterbacking the top power-play unit with a defenseman, then Rielly is the obvious choice and would likely step right back into that role. This is a Toronto club that finished tied fourth in power-play goals last season so it will be interesting to see how they utilize that group in the coming games.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 94% of ESPN leagues, 97% Fantrax, 93% Yahoo) – This morning I'm doing what I do every day I start my workday at my 9-5: Checking my main fantasy league and going through all the transactions and matchups. I stopped this morning, though, as one of the people in my league outright dropped Ekblad. Now when that happens for a player of his skill level two things go through your mind 1) It's a mistake and 2) It's a mistake and I need to put in a claim. However, I began to look at Ekblad's numbers and I think they'll be plenty more leagues that will follow what happened in ours.
Starting with his recent play, Ekblad has no points in his last seven games and only two in the last 12. His points per 60 minutes is a full point below where it was last season and his even strength shooting percentage is almost three full points lower. In addition to all this, it had come out that he wasn't skating at 100%, possibly still nursing either the injury he sustained earlier this season, a new injury, or some combination of both. The problem with Ekblad is one of the worst you can have in fantasy: You are rostering a player that has a proven track record of success that is not producing, but you can't leave him out of your lineup. Now though I think there is a case to be made that it is too far gone this season to continuing to roster him, his offensive production is way down and the peripherals he brings can be found by other defensemen.
I'm not sure what is going on down in Florida. The club that won the President's Trophy last season is currently sitting second to last in the Atlantic Division and eight points out of the last playoff spot in the East. I think it's partially the moves made in the offseason are affecting this team's play on the ice, the club's overall health (which was an issue down the stretch last season), and the coaching change to some degree. Regardless Ekblad's play this season has been anchoring rosters at around the halfway mark, it may be time to look elsewhere for a defenseman to roster in his spot.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through January 6th to January 18th
Seattle – Winners of three games in a row and Love 'Em for this week. Seattle has a very favorable schedule upcoming with games versus Ottawa, Montreal, and Chicago all on the schedule in the next week.
Nashville – Lots of games means lots of love for the Preds! Not to mention they too have Ottawa and Montreal on the schedule which helps their case. I'm not sure how much of a fantasy or DFS impact this will make for a club like Nashville but maybe for those out there in points pools?
Winnipeg – Six games in ten days is a tall order for any club but for fantasy it does mean that Winnipeg skaters will be available on rosters. The Jets are a Love Em for the time being.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Philadelphia – A home-and-home versus the Capitals late next week doesn't grade out great for the Flyers along with a game to start the week versus a Buffalo club with a solid power play. They're a stay away for the time being.
Boston – The B's only have two games on the schedule next week and that hurt's for a club that has higher roster numbers in fantasy and DFS.
Chicago – Like Boston, Chicago will only play two games next week. Unlike Boston it's kind of Patrick Kane or bust, and he may miss time with a lower-body injury.
Friday, January 6th to Thursday, January 12th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Arizona 4.40 – Away CHI – Home PIT SJS OTT |
Toronto 4.19 – Away PHI DET – Home DET NSH |
Detroit 4.05 – Away TOR – Home FLA WPG TOR |
Seattle 4.04 – Away OOTT MTL BUF BOS |
Nashville 4.04 – Away WSH OTT TOR MTL |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 1.65 – Away CAR – Home NYR |
Vegas 1.94 – Home LAK FLA |
Pittsburgh 2.09 – Away ARI – Home VAN |
Philadelphia 2.10 – Home TOR WSH |
Dallas 2.61 – Away NYI NYR – Home FLA |
Saturday, January 7th to Friday, January 13th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Toronto 4.19 – Away PHI DET – Home DET NSH |
Seattle 4.04 – Away OTT MTL BUF BOS |
San Jose 3.99 – Away ARI LAK – Home BOS EDM |
Winnipeg 3.89 – Away DET BUF PIT – Home VAN |
Edmonton 3.89 – Away LAK ANA SJS – Home COL |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.84 – Home CGY COL |
Vegas 1.94 – Home LAK FLA |
NY Islanders 2 – Home DAL MIN |
Tampa Bay 2 – Home CBJ VAN |
Philadelphia 2.10 – Home TOR WSH |
Sunday, January 8th to Saturday, January 14th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Nashville 4.24 – Away OTT TOR MTL – Home BUF |
Seattle 4.18 – Away MTL BUF BOS CHI |
Arizona 4.16 – Away MIN – Home PIT SJS OTT |
Toronto 3.94 – Away PHI DET BOS – Home NSH |
Pittsburgh 3.90 – Away ARI CAR – Home VAN WPG |
Steer Clear |
NY Rangers 2 – Home MIN DAL |
Vegas 2.05 – Home FLA EDM |
New Jersey 2.66 – Away CAR ANA LAK |
Tampa Bay 2.90 – Away STL – Home CBJ VAN |
Montreal 2.96 – Away NYI – Home SEA NSH |
Monday, January 9th to Sunday, January 15th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Nashville 4.24 – Away OTT TOR MTL – Home BUF |
Winnipeg 4.21 – Away DET BUF PIT – Home ARI |
Seattle 4.18 – Away MTL BUF BOS CHI |
Arizona 4.11 – Away MIN WPG – Home SJS OTT |
Carolina 4.05 – Away CBJ – Home NJD PIT VAN |
Steer Clear |
Philadelphia 2 – Away WSH – Home WSH |
Vegas 2.05 – Home FLA EDM |
Chicago 2.10 – Home COL SEA |
Anaheim 2.21 – Home EDM NJD |
Boston 2.21 – SEA TOR |
Tuesday, January 10th to Monday, January 16th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.34 – Away CHI – Home FLA OTT DET |
NY Islanders 4.31 – Home DAL MIN MTL WSH |
Winnipeg 4.21 – Away DET BUF PIT – Home ARI |
NY Rangers 4.21 – Away CBJ – Home MIN DAL MTL |
San Jose 4.20 – Away ARI LAK – Home EDM NJD |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 2.10 – Home COL SEA |
Los Angeles 2.31 – Home SJS NJD |
Montreal 2.61 – Away NYI NYR – Home NSH |
Toronto 2.85 – Away DET BOS – Home NSH |
Philadelphia 2.86 – Away WSH BOS – Home WSH |
Friday, January 11th to Tuesday, January 17th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.35 – Away BUF PIT MTL – Home ARI |
Anaheim 4.20 – Away PIT PHI – Home EDM NJD |
Edmonton 4.20 – Away ANA SJS VGK – Home SEA |
Nashville 4.14 – Away TOR MTL – Home BUF CGY |
Washington 4.11 – Away PHI NYI – Home PHI MIN |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 2.31 – Home SJS NJD |
Vancouver 2.52 – Away TBL FLA CAR |
Dallas 2.65 – Away NYR VGK – Home CGY |
Calgary 2.71 – Away STL DAL NSH |
Columbus 2.73 – Away DET – Home CAR NYR |
Saturday, January 12th to Wednesday, January 18th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.35 – BUF PIT MTL – Home ARI |
NY Islanders 4.25 – Home MIN MTL WSH BOS |
Boston 4.22 – Away NYI – Home SEA TOR PHI |
Colorado 4.15 – Away CHI CGY – Home OTT DET |
Detroit 4.10 – Away COL ARI – Home TOR CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 1.16 – Home NJD |
Columbus 2.73 – Away DET – Home CAR NYR |
Toronto 2.85 – Away DET BOS – Home FLA |
Carolina 2.89 – Away CBJ – Home PIT VAN |
St. Louis 2.94 – Home CGY TBL OTT |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.