Lining Up: St. Louis Injury Impacts, And Returns For Pacioretty, Wilson, And Backstrom

Peter Ryell

2023-01-10

This week will look at some players returning from injuries and how they have slotted into the lineup. Conversely, with the return of players, who gets moved down the lineup and how will that impact their fantasy value? Let's find out in this week's edition of Lining Up.

Max Pacioretty

Some big news from last week was the return of Max Pacioretty to the Carolina lineup. He did not waste any time easing his way back in and was immediately slotted onto a line with Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. He was also placed on the top power-play unit and on Saturday night recorded two goals, including one on the power-play to kick off his season.

The offseason acquisition has averaged close to a point-per-game pace over his last three seasons with Vegas on top of nearly four shots per game as well during that same span. He also provides extra value in leagues that count hits as he typically hovers between one and one and a half hits per game. As noted in the Fantasy Take article at the time he was acquired by Carolina, Pacioretty is a top-line left winger who, despite his age, has 75 goals in his last 158 games which is close to a 40-goal pace. Playing with a premier centre in Aho along with prime power-play deployment should allow Pacioretty to continue doing what he does best. Perhaps owners are still sleeping on him as he is currently owned in 65% of Yahoo leagues, meaning he may yet be available to pick up.

As a result of Pacioretty's return, Stefan Noesen became the unlucky player to be bumped off the top power-play unit in Carolina. He had ten power-play points in his 37 games played so far and was fitting in nicely with a PPIPP of 58.8. His 44 point-pace on the season will be heavily impacted since those ten power-play points so far accounted for half of his overall point total this season.

Nicklas BackstromTom Wilson

The other news was the return of both Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson to the Washington lineup, significantly bolstering the roster at a time when the team already find themselves in a playoff position despite the absences. Much like Pacioretty, Backstrom immediately resumed a top spot in the lineup, rejoining Alex Ovechkin on his line and on the top power-play unit. After only pacing for 54 points last season, Backstrom's best days may be behind him, especially considering the hip surgery he underwent and length of time he was off. However, prior to last season's pace, he had four consecutive seasons where he averaged 75 points and 23 on the power-play. That kind of reliability is what made Backstrom a household own for his career and at only 38% owned in Yahoo leagues, many owners may be writing him off too soon.

Tom Wilson is the other well-known fantasy commodity in Washington to rejoin the team. He returned and promptly joined a line with Evgeny Kuznetsov. Wilson is particularly valuable in banger leagues that count hits and penalty minutes as he has averaged almost three hits per game over the past three seasons in addition to reaching close to 100 penalty minutes. Unlike Backstrom, concerns of the recent injury impacting his play should be put to bed quickly. Wilson has been consistently performing within the 50- to 60-point range for the past four seasons along with his usual peripheral contributions. If he is available in leagues that count those stats, be sure to add him.

With the return of both these players, Dylan Strome was moved from Ovechkin's line to Kuznetsov's and Sonny Milano was subsequently moved to a line with Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie. Milano becomes the odd man out here after pacing for a career 52-point season and Strome, while retaining a spot alongside a good player at even strength, will lose his role on the top power-play unit.

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Brayden SchennBrandon Saad

After Ryan O'Reilly and Vladimir Tarasenko were both shelved with injuries, Brayden Schenn was moved to a line with Brandon Saad, and they have since been connecting. Schenn currently has six points in his last four games in addition to solid peripheral production of two shots and two hits per game that he has averaged over his past several seasons. The advanced stats indicate that everything for Schenn is within normal ranges except for a high secondary assist rate, so this deployment alongside Saad should allow for him to continue producing while injuries weaken the lineup.

Furthermore, injuries to O'Reilly and Tarasenko have meant that St. Louis is now squeezing the remaining productive forwards for more and utilizing them on a top power-play unit as opposed to splitting time between two units. The last three games have seen the top unit used for 70.7% of the power-play. Schenn is the fourth forward to join Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich and Jordan Kyrou on this unit and already has two power-play points to show for it on his current four-game hot streak.

For his part, Saad is on a hot streak of his own with seven points in four games, bringing him to 13 goals and five assists on the season so far. As opposed to Schenn, Saad has room to improve for point production as only one of his five assists have been a secondary assist. All other advanced metrics indicate that he is within normal ranges, including his 19.4% shooting percentage which is close to his three-year average of 17.7%. That number should go up, especially with the continued chemistry and deployment he is receiving. Schenn may likely still be available in leagues since he is 62% rostered in Yahoo leagues, but Saad can almost certainly be had at 7% rostered. If you are in need of a left-winger on a hot streak, look no further.

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