Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

The calendar may have flipped, and teams might be approaching the midpoint of the season; still though, there are players whose production – for better or worse – doesn't align with how they will fare in the weeks and months ahead, yet also some who might seem like they'd fit into one of those categories but who are actually performing at or near where they should be. Let's dig deep on three players (Cole Caufield, Sam Bennett, and Timo Meier) to figure out whether they should be labeled too hot, too cold, or just right. Your challenge remains the same as always: before reading any further, see if you can land on the right answers for all three. Stats for all players reflect games played through January 6th.

Cole Caufield (39 games, 22G, 9A, 130 SOG, 7 PPPts, 17:57 TOI, 3:16 PP, 60.7% PP%)

What a roller coaster 2021-22 was for the former 15th overall pick, as he was a preseason Calder favorite who then ended up sent to the AHL, only to return and tally 35 points (22 goals) in his 38 NHL games. This season his goal scoring has remained elite; but his overall production isn't where many pegged it to be. Is there another scorching second half on the horizon? Probably not, as if anything I think– at least for the time being – Caufield is actually producing better than his numbers suggest he should be.

Impressively, Caufield is averaging over a goal per every other game. Unfortunately, his assist count is less than half his goal total. Plus, of his nine assists all but two are secondary! A secondary assists rate as high as that is a source of concern in general; but even more so because Caufield is a sniper, which means if he's not scoring goals his SOG should be leading to goals, meaning he should get plenty of primary assists. To help put that in perspective, just one forward who has more goals doesn't have more primary assists than secondary. Somewhat ironically, although his assist total is dwarfed by his goal total Caufield likely has received too many assists.

Another source of concern is Caufield's lack of production on the power play. After finishing last season with ten PPPts in those final 38 games, he's come out of the gate in 2022-23 with just seven in 39 contests. Caufield has received the 64th most PP minutes among forwards, but is tied for 117th in PP scoring. Yes, Montreal's PP is not very good; however, clearly Caufield isn't helping matters. Moreover, his IPP on the PP is only 58.3%. It'd be one thing for him to be brought down by the team's PP struggles; however, with an IPP that low he's more so part of the problem than someone being hurt by it, as take Nick Suzuki, who only has two more PPPts but an IPP on the PP of 75.0%.

Also, Caufield's SH% is up despite his SOG rate also having risen and him taking a similar ratio of shots from 0-15, 16-30 and 31+ feet. Yes, snipers have a high SH%, but they tend to have a lot of PPGs, of which Caufield only has five, such that his even strength SH% is 17.9%, versus 16.9% overall. And looking at the top 20 forwards in goals scored, his even strength SH% is above that of more than half, so this is not a positive sign.

Despite Caufield's numbers trending down as this season has unfolded, his team's SH% at 5×5 when he's on the ice is 12.8%, which, if it doesn't sound that high, rest assured it is, as fewer than ten forwards who've played 20+ games have a higher rate. Looking at the top-25 among those who've played 20+ games, only Joe Pavelski scored at a 70+ point rate last season.

I touched upon Caufield's PP IPP, but what of his IPP overall? It's 63.3%, down from 66.2% last season. Keeping in mind that 60% is statistically average for a forward in view of three points usually coming on most goals and three of five forwards being on the ice for most of the time, this is not a good sign. What it drives home, especially when considered with the other data we've already seen, is Caufield is a "goal or nothing" type of player, who doesn't seem to find a way to factor into offense other than when he lights the lamp.

My guess many of you are wondering where my patented player comparables are. Well, the issue is Caufield doesn't really lend himself to comparison based on his age and numbers, as no forward in the last 40+ seasons had a campaign of 0.5+ goals per game and 3.0+ SOG per game but also 0.3 or fewer assists per game from in his first three seasons age 20-22. If we take away the age restriction though, we get Max Pacioretty and Victor Arvidsson, who both did so at 25. Patches already had a 65-point season to his credit, while this was Arvidsson's supposed breakout, which, ultimately, didn't morph him into a great player.

I'm not here to say Caufield isn't talented. After all, between the second half of last season and first quarter of 2022-23 he compiled 56 points (34 goals) in 59 games. But he's turning into a goal or nothing type "Cy Young" scorer, which is not a great sign at his age, especially considering his lousy PP performance and so-so IPPs. For this season Caufield actually is TOO HOT and gets a rating of 8.25, as I see him as more of a 55-60 point player. Could he still turn into a solid player like Pacioretty or someone like Rick Nash, who had similar Cy Young numbers but as a younger player? Maybe; but if I'm in a keeper I'd be entertaining the idea of selling Caufield, not buying, especially given all the hype he gets in Montreal.

Sam Bennett (40 games, 8G, 17A, 121 SOG, 6 PPPts, 18:04 TOI, 2:18 PP, 38.2% PP%)

The former second overall pick had a tough go of it early on, from having to live down the fact he couldn't do a single chin up at the NHL combine to the reality that his tenure with the Flames a huge disappointment which saw him fail to post even point per every other game numbers in any of his seasons there. Upon arriving in Florida, expectations were low; but the team put him on a scoring line and to say he responded would be a vast understatement, as he tallied 15 points in ten games. He failed to carry that momentum into 2021-22, as even though the Panthers were a historically potent offensive team, Bennett scored at a 57-point rate, which is above where he is for 2022-23 thus far. Is that his ceiling, or can he, still at only age 26, rise to a higher level for an entire season? I'd say it's the latter, as his metrics suggest he could bring more to the table than he is now.

Make no mistake – Bennett will never be a #1 center in Florida when they have Aleksander Barkov on their team. But Bennett also likely has a firmer grip on the second line pivot gig than many might think, as Anton Lundell looks like the second coming of Jordan Staal in that he is being used as a third line center who can provide offense but has great defensive skill, while Bennett brings physical play to his line, as he's on track for a career best in hits per game. Lundell's loss is Bennett's gain, especially given how stacked Florida's top six is.

One drawback to Florida's forward depth, however, is Bennett doesn't sniff PP1. Still, that might not be permanent, as although his six PPPts don't seem like a lot, he's had a PPPt on every PPG scored this season while he was on the ice. Yes, his PP IPP is 100%. Even if that slips, it'd mean either Bennett is seeing time on PP1 or his PP2 unit was faring better, which may mean a lower IPP but more PPGs occurring, for a net gain. Moreover, Bennett is still firing a good number of pucks on net while out there on the man advantage, such that if Florida does decide to end its throwback deployment of two defenseman on PP1, Bennett could be in line for a spot on the top unit.

Bennett's SOG rate is a bit lower than last season; however, his SH% is down a lot, which is not something one would expect, especially from someone who, like last season, takes more SOG from 0-15 feet than he does from 16-30 feet, and more from 16-30 feet than he does from 31+ feet. In fact, his SH% was well higher than it is now even when he was with the Flames, suggesting it should rise between now and the end of the season, which would mean more goals just in the normal course. If Bennett's SH% now was merely his career average of 10.5%, he'd have scored four or five more goals, raising his scoring rate from 51 to 59 in the process.

What about his other metrics? They're outstanding. His overall IPP is 75.8%, meaning he's significantly factoring into the scoring that's occurs while he's on the ice. It likely solidifies his top six status and could earn him more minutes and better linemates, which, much like was the case with respect to PP IPP, might see his IPP dip but would be more than offset but more goals being scored overall. Beyond that, Bennett's secondary assist rate is just 29.4%. Yes, it was a tad lower last season so it's not as remarkable. When coupled with his lower SH%, it should either be even lower as his missed shots should more often directly result in goals, or he should have more secondary assists. In other words, if looked at in a vacuum next to last season, it might not seem like a positive; yet when assessed with his 2022-23 metrics as a whole it suggests higher scoring should be on the horizon.

Another positive for Bennett is he has more multi-point games than one would expect for a player with his scoring rate. In fact, if we look at the 59 forwards who have more multipoint games this season thus far than his eight, all have at least five more points than him. His issue is in the first half of the season he had two separate stretches of five or more games with no points, so if he can address that while still maintaining his ability to have explosive scoring in the form of multipoint games, that too should boost his scoring rate.

Bennett also isn't just affected by his low SH% – it's his entire line, as his team 5×5 SH% when he's on the ice is just 6.7%. Yes, Bennett has never been one for whom this number is very sky high; however, as a second line center for a team that's still among the top ten in goals scored, as opposed to when he was mired on the third and fourth line in Calgary, it should be at least at or near double digits and inasmuch as it's not I'd expect it to improve and, with that, Bennett's numbers as well.

While he likely will never fulfill the promise that came with being a second overall pick, Bennett has turned a disastrous early run with Calgary into a seemingly entrenched spot in the Florida top six, what with his offensive talent and sandpaper style. Bennett also is very strong in IPP and his SH%, both individually and for his line, is unsustainably low. As such, Bennett's 2022-23 thus far has been TOO COLD, and he earns a rating of 2.5, as I see him being able to score at a 60-65 point pace over the rest of the season.

Timo Meier (40 games, 23G, 17A, 188 SOG, 13 PPPts, 20:09 TOI, 3:08 PP, 67.9% PP%)

Selected ninth overall in 2015, Meier was a regular in San Jose by 2017-18. After a first full season that was forgettable, he broke out to the tune of 66 points in 78 games at age 21. Yet rather than building upon that success, Meier had two seasons where his scoring rate went down by ten points, only to rebound in a major way in 2021-22 with an 81 point pace, even if he did slow considerably in the second half, with 29 points in 39 games. This season he's right at point per game output again. Should we expect him to keep up this pace for all of 2022-23 and in future campaigns? More likely than not.

When one thinks of Meier, the first thing that comes to mind – and rightfully so – is his SOG rate, which has gone from an already amazing 4.3 last season to a truly jaw dropping 4.7 for 2022-23 thus far, pacing him to fire 350+ pucks on net for the campaign. Yet in both seasons he still managed to have a double digit SH%, with it actually climbing a bit from 2021-22 to 2022-23. That is somewhat of a red flag, but not much, as Meier is a man advantage scoring machine, tallying nearly half of his goals when his team is on the PP. While he peppers the net with shots that aren't always the highest quality in general, his PPG prowess lifts his SH%, and, in turn, his scoring.

What if Meier was to keep up his current season-long pace of 350+ SOG plus 15 PPGs? The list of wingers who hit both those thresholds in the same season is impressive to say the least, as it includes Alex Ovechkin multiple times, plus Pavel Bure, Paul Kariya, Jaromir Jagr and Brett Hull. All of them had seasons well above mere point per game output; so why can't Meier? The issue is he either doesn't have as many goals or not enough assists, as all these wings had 60+ goal seasons, which, with all due respect to Meier, would be a very tall order; but some had 50+ assist seasons when they didn't end up not having as many goals, and Meier doesn't look cut from that cloth either. For the time being, he's not in that echelon despite these comparables.

What also stands in the way of Meier raising his production is he's not adding PP assists on top of his PPGs. Of the other eight players who have double digit PPGs thus far, the average number of PP assists is 11, or nearly quadruple Meier's measly three PP helpers. Unlike the case with Montreal as discussed above, Meier's team's PP can't be blamed, as San Jose is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to PP conversion percentage. While Meier is finding success in the form of PPGs, him not adding accompanying PP assists, like most PP snipers do, keeps his scoring total where it is now, as opposed to being higher. This pattern actually started last season, when he had 12 PPGs but a mere six PP assists, as of the 11 wingers who had more PPGs than Meier's 12, just one – Chris Kreider – likewise had at least double the numbers of PPGs as PP assists, with Kreider having never produced a point per game season in his career.

One thing to also consider is Meier, as a larger framed player, is right above his 400 game breakout threshold, making it less likely that he'll have another gear beyond what we're seeing from him now. Certainly it's possible for him to still progress, especially if the Sharks get better as a team on the whole. But with Meier having already started to improve last season and now playing at much the same level as his 2021-22 as a whole, it suggests that his breakout threshold might indeed equate to the best he ultimately has to offer in terms of scoring rate.

As for Meier's IPPs, they're 66.7% overall and 65% on the PP. For him to be producing at such a high rate on the PP despite an IPP not above 70% could be looked upon favorably, although it also could be a source of concern, as he's not going to get more PPGs and he's shown he's not one to tally PP assists. His PP IPP just might be stuck at this level or could go even lower.

Meier's secondary assist percentage, which was a career low last season, is even lower for 2022-23 at 35.3%. Unlike with Caufield, this is to be expected as Meier's goal scoring rate increases, as if he's not lighting the lamp then his shots are leading directly to goals. In other words, he's following the correct script for a sniper, as the majority of those with more goals than him have a secondary assist rate as low or lower than his. We can't count on Meier gaining points based on this metric.

One surprising statistic given Meier's offensive talent and his tendency to fire pucks on net left and right, is that dating back to his breakout 2018-19, his offensive zone starting percentage had been in the range of 50.5% to 51.8%, except last season, when it was 45.9%, likely due to his team not being great at puck possession versus a deliberate decision to have him start fewer shifts in the offensive zone. This season though, it's 57.9%. Should we be concerned it could go down and, with that, Meier's scoring? I'd say no, as it signifies the team around him is improving and recognizes him as a key driver of offense. It could even climb further if his team improves, especially since Meier spends no time on the PK. Still though, his ice time is above 20:00 this season, and often players whose OZ% is as high as his are ones who, understandably, don't take the ice as much, since the more one is out there, unless on a truly top team, the more one will need to start shifts in the defensive zone. I would say this stat is not a concern but also not something that points to higher scoring on the horizon.

Although Meier's player comparables include some of the highest scoring wingers of the past three decades, he doesn't seem like quite the same sniper as them and also isn't one to contribute lots of assists. He's producing at the same rate as last season despite a much higher OZ%, so there likely isn't room for gains there, nor does he seem to be cut from a cloth that produces many PP helpers. Thus, I think what we're seeing is pretty much what we're going to get when it comes to Meier, and, as such, his 2022-23 scoring rate is JUST RIGHT and he gets a rating of 5.5, with a chance perhaps down the road to produce better if the Sharks become an improved team.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.