Ramblings: Matthews Out; Updates on Kane, Gallagher, Jenner, and Kreider; Lafrenière’s Performance – January 12
Michael Clifford
2023-01-12
Despite injuries on the blue line, the Toronto Maple Leafs forward crop has largely remained healthy this season, especially the top-6: all of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, Mitch Marner, Michael Bunting, and Alex Kerfoot have played every game this season. That streak came to an end on Wednesday night as Matthews sat out:
The team said he's day-to-day and he skated at their optional practice so it's clearly nothing serious. Toronto is in Detroit on Thursday night for a back-to-back, then they're off to Boston. Maybe Matthews misses the Red Wings game but it seems a safe bet he'll be back by the weekend.
It does bring up an interesting thought train, though. Heading into Wednesday night's game against Nashville, Toronto was 11 points back of Boston for first place in the Atlantic Division. Tampa Bay, third in the division, was nine points clear of both Buffalo and Florida (with three fewer games played than the Panthers). With the NHL's current playoff format, it seems exceedingly likely that Boston wins the division while Toronto/Tampa Bay face off in the first round yet again, even if there's a half-season left. Those three teams, barring some sort of collapse or supernova performance, are locked into their playoff matchups. Do we see any, or all, of them rest players in the back half? It doesn't seem particularly useful to have top stars playing especially meaningless games against basement teams, or just playing night in and night out. There is the risk of rust, but that can be easily managed. It will be interesting to see if, from time to time, we see one of these three teams be extra cautious with any minor nick or scrape to help get to the postseason as healthy as possible.
The NHL isn't really known for load management outside of their goalies, and maybe resting players the last game of the season in anticipation of the playoffs. It does make a lot of sense for these teams in particular to go this route over their remaining schedule given the lack of importance if things keep going the way they are. Not resting players for a week or two, but a game every few weeks on a back-to-back, or an extended road trip, or after a tough overtime contest. Just something fantasy owners should keep in the back of their minds.
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Patrick Kane was still not practicing with Chicago on Wednesday, so he looks doubtful for Thursday night's home game against Colorado. There was not much of an update, so we'll provide them as we get more news.
This is probably one of those instances where he could play if it were the playoffs but there's no sense in having him play through injury, however small, anymore. The most important thing for Chicago is that he's as close to healthy as possible by the end of February so they can trade him at the deadline.
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Montreal provided an injury update on Brendan Gallagher, who has been in and out of the lineup for at least a month now:
Going back to 2021-22, Gallagher has 11 goals and 33 points in 81 regular season games. Over the last four seasons, he has played in just 70% of the team's regular season games, or 57 appearances every 82 contests. Injuries can be fickle but he is a guy who plays a very hard game and has for over a decade now, including a couple deep playoff runs. A person's body can only take so much punishment. As a Habs fan, my hope is he just heals up everything he needs to and can get in a good 15-20 games to finish the year, coming back as close to 100% as he can in September.
For fantasy owners, this probably ends Gallagher's fantasy campaign, for whatever meagre value he had. He will return close to the trade deadline, some players will be dealt, and he's not going to earn top-line minutes (or he's unlikely to, anyway). For now, it is his long-term value with which we should be concerned, and he turns 31 years old in May.
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Kyle Palmieri is still not ready to return to the lineup:
Palmieri has played one game over the last seven-plus weeks thanks to an upper-body injury. It sure seems like he's been skating and practicing for a couple weeks, though, so this is starting to confound a little bit. Players shouldn't rush back from injury and Palmieri should take the time he feels he needs, but this feels more like it was a serious injury that they're disguising as upper-body. That is just me guessing, but it'll be nice to see him back on the ice when he returns. He has six goals, 39 shots, and 34 hits in 21 games this year.
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Chris Kreider was not at Rangers practice on Wednesday, and Alexis Lafrenière took his spot not only on the top line but the top power-play unit:
It has not been a good year, points-wise, for the 1st overall pick from 2020, but there could just be some bad luck going on. There is data – like Corey Sznajder's tracking data – showing Lafrenière with excellent scoring chance contribution numbers (SCC) at 5-on-5 (SCC are simply individual scoring chances and assists on teammate scoring chances). This was his 60-minute SCC rate last year, with the players across the league in the same neighbourhood:
Despite good per-minute scoring rates at 5-on-5 in 2021-22, the winger wasn't really the engine of the offence when he was on the ice.
This year has been a whole different scene for him, as his SCC/60 has skyrocketed among some of the top-end forwards in the league:
It is not a huge sample in 2022-23 – just 180 minutes tracked, or about 14 games' worth – but something has changed in his offensive profile. The advanced metrics don't look strong so there's something else at play here, but it would seem there's still development going on and shooting 7% after clearing 17% in his first two seasons doesn't make it look too rosy. It'll be interesting to watch him skate in his new role with Kreider out of the lineup, which shouldn't be too long.
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It’s not much of an update but Boone Jenner was skating on Wednesday for Columbus:
Before the injury – a fractured thumb – put him on the shelf in December, Jenner was on pace for a 30-goal, 60-point, 250-shot, 148-hit season. He had been performing extremely well in multi-cat formats and I'm sure his fantasy owners are itching for him to get back in the lineup.
While Jenner's fantasy owners are eagerly anticipating his return, Johnny Gaudreau's fantasy owners are likely in the same boat. Whenever the offseason signee has skated with Jenner this season, Gaudreau produced 3.6 points and 8.9 shots per 60 minutes. Without Jenner on the ice with him, Gaudreau's production has cratered to 1.8 points and 6.6 shots per 60 minutes. Now, that includes the full season and Jenner, even when healthy, wasn't always Gaudreau's centre, but Johnny Hockey has five points and 18 shots in 10 games since the Jackets' top center left the lineup. There is clearly good offensive chemistry between them (or there's a lack of viable options other than Jenner) so there is a lot of impact on Jenner's potential return that is hopefully coming sooner rather than later. A fractured thumb is not a concussion or a back injury, so he should be good to go as soon as he can stickhandle and shoot to his usual levels.
This could be a good buying opportunity for fantasy players looking for a boost down the stretch. The lustre from Gaudreau joining in the offseason, and his 33 points-in-30-games start, is gone, and his fantasy owners might be getting frustrated. It could be a good buy-low opportunity to get a winger that won't repeat last year's numbers but can still be a point-per-game fantasy option.
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Philadelphia allowed a couple of late goals to Marcus Johansson and TJ Oshie but held on for a 5-3 win at home against Washington. The Flyers have now won six of their seven games since the holiday break.
Travis Konecny registered a hat trick, his first since the second game of the Bubble Season. Adding the empty netter brought him to 24 goals in 36 games on the season. The breakout campaign rolls on, showing no signs of slowing down.
Owen Tippett scored as well with a beautiful snipe after crossing the blue line and coming down to the top of the circle. He is up to 13 goals of his own as he starts to find that scoring touch that made him such a highly touted prospect.
Nicklas Backstrom recorded his first point of the season, assisting on Oshie's goal. He played a little over 16 minutes, more than his first game, though none of the Caps looked particularly engaged in this one.