Looking Ahead: Help From Returning Wilson And Backstrom; Kreider’s Injury; Winnipeg’s Schedule
Andrew Santillo
2023-01-13
Fantasy matchups are in full swing this week and whether you're up by a lot or down by a little, it's time to go into the weekend with a solid plan moving forward. With that I have noticed something that has helped me in my leagues. Given the way the schedule has gone this season I've loaded up at forward giving me potentially more roster spots to fill on "lighter" slates. It does leave defense and goaltending a little bare, but I've started to slide in the standings from the top to the middle and mainly it's just been off of games played alone. I'm sure that I can't be the only one here and think about it, it does make sense. If we're playing darts and you have seven darts and I have two, who has the better chance? I got tired of Friday slates only being able to play one defenseman and god-willing a goaltender, something to had to give and maybe this is the answer? With that, let's dive in!
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Tom Wilson, RW, Washington Capitals (Rostered in 28% of ESPN leagues, 63% Fantrax, 50% Yahoo) – Tom Wilson was close to returning to action last week and was eventually taken off injured reserve to join the team. Can I offer anyone a sneaky good immediate fix?
Okay so maybe "sneaky" isn't the right word when we talk about Tom Wilson. I feel like if there's a bad penalty or a dirty hit in say a Bruins – Maple Leafs game, even though he's not on either side, he is still somehow involved. Wilson returned from IR late last week after missing the first half of the season recovering from ACL surgery that he had last May and the physicality he brings was not missing from his game upon his return. So far through two games played he has one shot on goal to go along with ten hits.
The reason for the Immediate Fix here is that we know the peripherals to his game will be there no matter what, the scoring might take a little bit of time. It's difficult to get back up to game speed and for now Wilson has been skating along the Capitals third line and second power play unit. Goals and assists are almost a random if you will occurrence in the NHL, hits and blocked shots are consistent depending on the player. If Wilson can get back up to speed and get back to being the two-way player that he's been in the past than you may have more than immediate fix on your roster, but for now he's a solid addition for the weekend and into next week.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Nicklas Backstrom, C, Washington Capitals (Rostered in 17% of ESPN leagues, 46% Fantrax, 37% Yahoo) – Our second Capital that we'll highlight this week is also returning from injury, as Nicklas Backstrom has returned to the Washington lineup following hip surgery this past offseason.
Sure hip surgery for a 35-year-old player, or be it a player of any age, and we do have Backstrom listed ad Band-Aid Boy Certified but I'm playing the long game here with him. I'd say the," average" Backstrom season falls somewhere in between 75-70 points, would it be so farfetched to think that if he plays in the majority of games the rest of the regular season, he lands at around 25 points? With a finally healthy Capitals power play I don't think it's out of the conversation.
Since his return he has skated on the Capitals second line along with Lars Eller and TJ Oshie. When those lines were given to us at the Capitals morning skate on Wednesday, I thought that was a strange line combination for that trio as any line with Eller on it is used as more of a shutdown line. Even going back a calendar year there's no sample size with that trio outside of Wednesday's game. If you're seeing the same thing, my thought here is that the Capitals may just be trying things out with their roster finally becoming healthier among their forwards? I thought that a Wednesday night game in Philadelphia was as good a time as ever to try things up until three minutes left in the third with the Capitals down a goal, it happens. Still, I like Backstrom moving forward on any fantasy roster that is in need of a forward.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Teuvo Teravainen, LW/RW, Carolina Hurricanes (Rostered in 58% of ESPN leagues, 73% of Fantrax, 53% Yahoo) – I've watched as Teuvo Teravanien's roster numbers have fallen this season and now I suspect they could begin to slide a bit more here in the coming days with a return to the Hurricanes roster.
Last week we had another prominent player return from injury as Mx Pacioretty made his season debut with the Carolina Hurricanes. That is excellent news for anyone rostering him, his linemates, or just has Carolina in a points pool. The bad news comes in way of those rostering Teravainen as it essentially puts him down to the fourth line for Carolina. Since Pacioretty's return to the lineup, Teravainen's ice time has gone down from around 16 minutes a night to 13. That's a pretty big hit and of course means that anything production wise that Teravainen could provide will now have to be done in even less time on the ice.
If you're rostering him though there are positives in this which help make him still somewhat valuable. First being that Carolina is so deep at the wings that he'll still get favorable matchups at points down the stretch. Second is that he does still have power play exposure; even with Carolina running an even split between the two groupings the ice time still favors the top group slightly. If you're in a larger league where the pickings may be slim on the waiver then I think Teuvo still finds a home on your roster, those in smaller leagues or that have smaller rosters I'd consider making a move elsewhere.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Chris Kreider, D, New York Rangers (Rostered in 97% of ESPN leagues, 97% Fantrax, 98% Yahoo) – The description here for an Anchor uses the word "disappoint" which maybe a little harsh for Chris Kreider. It could be though that there's some sticker shock once the season comes to a close.
This past offseason it felt like I read more articles that Kreider was potentially over the hill, and it got to the point where it was like he was the first player we've seen celebrate a 31st birthday. While none of that is well-founded, it's true that the season he had last year is going to be hard and potentially by now impossible for him to replicate. I rostered Kreider last season and was fortunate to be able to benefit off his seemingly nightly routine of having a puck bounce off him and into the net on the power play. Not saying that the Rangers power play is less effective, this is still a club that plays great on the man advantage, but Kreider's 77 points season last year is going to be very hard for him to replicate now 42 games in and sitting at 30 points.
Kreider does still hit a fair bit and block a decent number of shots as well and that comes from his good play on the Rangers penalty kill. While sure, that has value, it doesn't help when you're in need of offensive production and he's lights out for a week on end. I began to really worry about this lack of production back in December when in a game versus the Blackhawks the Rangers banked seven goals with Kreider not finding his way onto the score sheet. While his entire line ended up with multi-point games, Kreider finished the game without even a shot on goal.
Right now, Kreider is going to miss a game or two with an arm injury, but it shouldn't be more than a game or two. Let's hope that coming back the offensive production increases slightly. This is a player that is too good to drop and also too good to leave off of the lineup on most nights.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through January 13th to January 25th
NY Islanders – While I wouldn't be interested in rostering much here for either fantasy or DFS outside of Ilya Sorokin, I do think that the Isles are in a great spot upcoming with the number of games they'll be playing next week.
Winnipeg – The Jets will host the Coyotes this weekend and next they'll gave games versus Montreal, Ottawa, and Philadelphia. They'll be in plenty of good power play spots upcoming making them a Love Em for this week.
Philadelphia – The Flyers have gone 7-3-0 in their past ten games and will see Anaheim and Chicago next week. Whatever your thoughts are on if this Flyers club talent wise, I assure you the Ducks and Hawks are much worse.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Los Angeles – The Leave 'Em's this week will be focused on clubs that have generally higher roster numbers but not seeing much action in the short term, first being the Kings. Los Angeles has only one game on the schedule this weekend and then a break until Thursday next week.
Carolina – Maybe the deepest club in the NHL, the Hurricanes are only in action twice next week. As someone who rosters a fair bit of Hurricanes across three leagues, I can't be the only one who is going to have to look for ways to fill roster spots.
NY Rangers – Like the Hurricanes, the Rangers will only play twice next week. They have one of the higher rostered goaltenders and several higher rostered skaters so missing out on them will be a challenge upcoming.
Friday, January 13th to Thursday, January 19th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 4.30 – Away BUF – Home MTL WSH BOS |
Winnipeg 4.25 – Away PIT MTL TOR – Home ARI |
Philadelphia 4.22 – Away WSH BOS – Home ANA CHI |
Seattle 4.19 – Away CHI EDM – Home TBL NJD |
Washington 4.15 – Away NYI ARI – Home PHI MIN |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 2.15 – Home NJD DAL |
Vancouver 2.61 – Away FLA CAR – Home TBL |
Calgary 2.75 – Away DAL NSH – Home COL |
Ottawa 2.76 – Away COL STL – Home PIT |
Toronto 2.90 – Away BOS – Home FLA WPG |
Saturday, January 14th to Friday, January 20th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 4.30 – Away BUF – Home MTL WSH BOS |
Philadelphia 4.22 – Away WSH BOS – Home ANA CHI |
Seattle 4.19 – Away CHI EDM – TBL NJD |
Washinton 4.15 – Away NYI ARI – Home PHI MIN |
Florida 4.08 – Away BUF TOR MTL – Home VAN |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 2.15 – Home NJD DAL |
San Jose 2.15 – Home NJD DAL |
Calgary 2.75 – DAL NSH – Home COL |
Toronto 2.90 – Away BOS – Home FLA WPG |
Carolina 2.94 – Home PIT VAN MIN |
Sunday, January 15th to Saturday, January 21st, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.35 – Away MTL TOR OTT – Home ARI |
Philadelphia 4.27 – Away BOS DET – Home ANA CHI |
Buffalo 4.19 – Away CHI – Home FLA NYI ANA |
Detroit 4.15 – Away COL ARI VGK – Home PHI |
Florida 4.13 – Away BUF TOR MTL – Home MIN |
Steer Clear |
Los Angeles 1.90 – Away NSH – Home DAL |
New Jersey 2.09 – Away SJS SEA |
Minnesota 2.61 – Away WSH CAR FLA |
Nashville 2.74 – Away STL – Home CGY LAK |
Carolina 2.75 – Away NYI – Home VAN MIN |
Monday, January 16th to Sunday, January 22nd, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 5.32 – Away BOS DET – Home ANA CHI WPG |
Pittsburgh 4.30 – Away OTT NJD – Home ANA OTT |
Vegas 4.29 – Away ARI – Home DAL DET WSH |
Buffalo 4.19 – Away CHI – Home FLA NYI ANA |
Winnipeg 4.18 – Away MTL TOR OTT PHI |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.81 – Away NYI – Home MIN |
NY Rangers 1.90 – Away CBJ – Home BOS |
Minnesota 2.61 – Away WSH CAR FLA |
Nashville 2.74 – Away STL – Home CGY LAK |
Calgary 2.79 – Away NSH – Home COL TBL |
Tuesday, January 17th to Monday, January 23rd, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 4.46 – Away DET – Home ANA CHI WPG |
Dallas 4.32 – Away SJS LAK – Home ARI BUF |
Winnipeg 4.18 – Away MTL TOR OTT PHI |
Arizona 4.11 – Away DAL – Home DET WSH VGK |
Chicago 4.10 – Away PHI STL – Home BUF LAK |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.81 – Away NYI – Home MIN |
Nashville 1.85 – Away STL – Home LAK |
NY Rangers 1.95 – Home BOS FLA |
New Jersey 2.04 – Away SEA – Home PIT |
St. Louis 2.26 – Home NSH CHI |
Friday, January 18th to Tuesday, January 24th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Vegas 4.34 – Away ARI NJD – Home DET WSH |
Dallas 4.32 – Away SJS LAK – Home ARI BUF |
Philadelphia 4.25 – Away DET – Home CHI WPG LAK |
Vancouver 4.20 – Home TBL COL EDM CHI |
Arizona 4.16 – Away DAL – Home WSH VGK ANA |
Steer Clear |
Edmonton 1.80 – Away VAN – Home TBL |
Carolina 1.81 – Away NYI – Home MIN |
NY Rangers 1.94 – Home BOS FLA |
Seattle 2.10 – Home NJD COL |
Minnesota 2.52 – Away CAR FLA TBL |
Saturday, January 19th to Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Vegas 4.34 – Away ARI NJD – Home DET WSH |
Vancouver 4.30 – Away SEA – Home COL EDM CHI |
Philadelphia 4.25 – Away DET – Home CHI WPG LAK |
Arizona 4.16 – Away DAL – Home WSH VGK ANA |
Los Angeles 4.13 – Away NSH CHI PHI – Home DAL |
Steer Clear |
Calgary 2 – Home TBL CBJ |
Minnesota 2.52 – Away CAR FLA TBL |
Carolina 2.71 – Away NYI DAL – Home MIN |
Tampa Bay 2.76 – Away EDM CGY – Home MIN |
San Jose 2.80 – Away CBJ BOS DET |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.