Welcome back to your Saturday picks breakdown, everyone! First off, I have to show some serious love to Brad and the Dobber Hockey team for holding me down over the past few weeks covering the picks. I've missed bringing you the Saturday betting analysis you've come to expect over the past four seasons – so let's get back to business starting with a very juicy 14-game board this evening.

We are now officially past the halfway point of the NHL season, which means it's time to get serious with these wagers and zero in on some advantageous situations to stack a little bit of money for what is sure to be a tantalizing stretch of hockey and betting action.

Speaking of which, a quick glance at today's betting board reveals a number of intriguing matchups that I am excited to break down for you below. Big night on tap, my friends. Dig in, do your research, and let's get this money.

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2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 1-3

Silver: 2-2
Bronze: 3-1

Side bets: 10-1-1

Total Saturday Record: 16-7-1

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Gold Selection

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Carolina Hurricanes – Pick: Hurricanes ML (-190)

I had some serious money invested in Sidney Crosby and an anytime assist for Friday night's matchup between the Penguins and Winnipeg Jets and let's just say his early absence from the contest didn't exactly help my chances of bagging that bet. Crosby did end up returning to the game but his impact was mitigated by how poorly Pittsburgh performed overall.

Anyway, the main takeaway here is that the Pens looked downright dreadful for 60 minutes. Injuries and lineup absences for key players such as starting netminder Tristan Jarry and No. 1 blue-liner in Kris Letang have this group looking thin, tired, and somewhat out of their league as of late. The club's 2-7 record over their last nine games would back me up on this take, and on the second night of a back-to-back they have to deal with the top team in the Metro Division in the Carolina Hurricanes on the road. That's a tough spot for any team let alone one so banged up and performing so poorly.

Aside from what I've been seeing on the ice from Sid and the boys to have me backing the Hurricanes here (for not the greatest odd) is the recent matchup history between these two Metropolitan foes. The Pens have only one win in their last seven games against Carolina and have only two wins on the road over their past six contests overall. Crosby has been leading this team all season once again in addition to the play of Jarry before he got hurt, and with Sid getting a bit banged up Friday this PIttsburgh team as a lot working against it.

That means it's time to pounce on this situation in a very big way – either straight up or included in a juicy parlay. These are two teams trending in opposite directions both in terms of getting healthy (Max Pacioretty and Frederik Andersen returned to the Hurricanes' lineup over the past few weeks) and in the standings. Carolina on the moneyline for my Gold Pick of the night.

Silver Selection

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Boston Bruins – Pick: UNDER 6 (+104)

You know I can't return with the Saturday picks analysis without dropping a little wager on the Maple Leafs in some shape or form. This week the angle I am taking with these Buds is with a bet on the total. This game has all the makings of a playoff-type-atmosphere showdown and that has me really liking the UNDER. Yes, I have to admit, the fact the total has already dropped from 6.5 down to six is obviously a bit rattling, but that's just how confident I am in this one staying low scoring throughout.

Say what you will about the Maple Leafs and their lack of postseason success – both against the Bruins and otherwise – over the past decade, this iteration of Toronto hockey looks and feels different. The Leafs are now committed to playing a very stingy, defensive-minded brand of hockey, allowing the team to concede the fourth-fewest total goals this season (112). Only the Dallas Stars, New Jersey Devils, and of course, Boston Bruins (88 total goals allowed, best in the NHL) allow fewer.

Each week a total always jumps off the page for me, and this week it was the UNDER between two bitter rivals, two of the best defensive clubs in the NHL. Earlier this season when the Bruins and Leafs met? Tight-checking, playoff-atmosphere-type game that resulted in three total goals and a very close Leafs win. The Bruins will be eager to avenge that loss and I think we should see yet another very tight, low-scoring game between these two Atlantic Division juggernauts.

Bruins-Leafs stays UNDER the total, even at the current number of six. If you can shop around a bit and tease that number up for lower odds, go right ahead. Either way, hammer this UNDER and thank me later.

Bronze Selection

Matthew Tkachuk Anytime Goal +110

Before I quickly dive into the numbers for Matthew Tkachuk to have yet another big-time game against the Vancouver Canucks, let's just address the main angle here right away: The Canucks are seriously bad right now. Like, historically bad. This group has blown more multi-goal games in one season than any team EVER in the history of the NHL. That stat alone is staggering, but honestly, this group looks ready to pack it in.

The once praised Bruce Boudreau is on the hot seat, the team is ready to sell off top pieces in Bo Horvat and others, they've scratched Oliver Ekman-Larsson and his beast-mode contract, and there's even rumours of locker room divide. What else do you need to hear to know that this season has been a complete mess for both the Canucks and their fan base? Likely not much. So why not use this dumpster-fire-like situation to our advantage in terms of pouncing on a good betting spot.

Look, there is still a lot to like about this Canucks group on paper and the future still holds promise with the likes of Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson, and even Thatcher Demko – but for now it's time to fade this team heavy. Starting tonight with a visit to South Florida and the Panthers. Instead of taking the obvious angle and wagering on the Panthers straight up, I'm taking the player prop angle with Tkachuk who has impressive numbers in his career against this Canucks side. Not only is Tkachuk already on a nice little heater of nine points in his last five, he's flexed on Vancouver over the course of his career, racking up 14 goals and 18 assists in only 32 regular-season games.

That's the most goals and points against any team in the NHL for Tkachuk to this point in his career. The man likes to play against Vancouver and has proved it with these impressive numbers. This trend continues in a big way for Tkachuk and the Panthers tonight. Matthew Tkachuk Anytime Goalscorer is my Bronze Pick of the night.

Side Bets

Buffalo Sabres @ Nashville Predators – Pick: OVER 6.5 (-110)

Alexander Ovechkin Anytime Goal (-110)

Tampa Bay Lightning @ St. Louis Blues – Pick: Lightning ML (-196)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.