Ramblings: Midseason Guide Available! Strome Scratch, Laine Hat Trick, Francouz Shutout (Jan 15)
Ian Gooding
2023-01-15
The Midseason Guide is ready! Purchase and download yours at the Dobber Sports shop if you haven't already.
This year, I was more heavily involved in the Midseason Guide than I have been in past years. The most time-consuming job for me was the Projections, which come with an added time constraint because the hockey world doesn't stop and numbers change on a daily basis. The time needed for this was the reason that the guide was delayed a few hours (send any beefs my way, because the issues were on my end). At the same time, this is a thorough and detailed project that I think will be worth your investment of time and money for you to achieve success in your fantasy hockey this season and beyond.
Also, if you downloaded the guide on Friday, you may have noticed that the predicted final standings and scheduled stretch run articles weren't available yet. The schedule article is now in the guide, so you can start planning for your fantasy playoffs right away (just don't forget to make the playoffs first). The projected final standings article should be there soon if not already by the time you read this as well. Just go back to your Downloads folder where you first downloaded the guide, and download an updated copy. We will also try to fix any errors that we find or are brought to our attention.
I just want to take the time to thank all the writers here at Dobber Hockey and over at Dobber Prospects for all their help with this. This is a fantastic crew to work with – always cooperative and helpful. As well, thanks to Mario Prata and Dobber himself for their never-ending patience as I learned the ropes of collaborating this publication. I was the managing editor of another fantasy hockey website years ago (a few of you may remember it), where I was the lead on their preseason fantasy guide. I will say now that the amount of detail that goes into the Dobber guide – particularly with the projections – far surpasses what we created over there.
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Dylan Strome was made a healthy scratch for the Capitals on Saturday, which is certainly an interesting choice from Peter Laviolette since Strome is the team's third-leading scorer (31 points). Strome is without a point in his last three games and without a goal in his last five games, but it appears that he was simply chosen to be the odd man out. With Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson both returning from long-term injury absences recently, the Capitals are suddenly well-stocked at the forward position. Anthony Mantha had already been a healthy scratch in a recent game, while I wonder if the same fate awaits Sonny Milano. In the Midseason Guide projections, I had already noted Strome, Milano, and Conor Sheary as players that could cool off in the second half.
Don't expect Strome to remain in the press box for long. The Capitals could have used his scoring on Saturday, falling 3-1 to the Flyers. Alex Ovechkin's 30th goal of the season was the long goal for Washington.
Travis Konecny's point streak ended at 10 games. He has scored an astounding 12 goals and 20 points over that span. Because he's currently on a near-100-point pace (I was surprised too when I saw that), I managed to convince Dobber to increasing his upside up from 85 points to 90 points. Dobber was pretty good about allowing for my input on a few player upsides. For the record, I think that Konecny will cool off to some degree in the second half and won't reach 100 points.
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In what seemed like a bit of a surprise decision, Pavel Francouz made his second consecutive start. I say surprise because he had a so-so start against Chicago on Thursday, allowing three goals on 30 shots in a loss to the tanking Blackhawks. Francouz made Jared Bednar's decision seem smart, stopping all 29 shots he faced in a 7-0 shutout of the Senators. Even though he might be the hot goalie, Francouz might not start again until the Avs play back-to-back games in Vancouver and Seattle on Friday and Saturday. I've hung onto Francouz all season in one of my leagues thinking that the injury-riddled Avalanche will morph back into the Stanley Cup contenders we expected them to be. Of course, there's the injury risk, as Francouz is a Band-Aid Boy and hasn't been able to take on a starting role for a long stretch.
Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen and Alex Newhook all scored two goals for the Avalanche, with Lehkonen and Newhook each adding an assist as well. The goals were Lehkonen's first since before Christmas – a span of nine games without a goal. Newhook's goalless slump was even longer at 11 games. Since both Lehkonen and Newhook are playing in the Avalanche's top 6, both players will need to step up if the Avs are to secure a playoff spot. (Spoiler alert from the predicted final standings in the Midseason Guide: I think they will.)
One statistical anomaly from this game: Every single Senators player was at least a minus-1, yet only Thomas Chabot (-3) was worse than a minus-2. You could say they all shared responsibility in the loss.
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Back to Chicago. Just when you think the Blackhawks can't bottom out any deeper, they allowed SIX first-period goals to the red-hot visiting Seattle Kraken en route to an eventual 8-5 loss. Petr Mrazek posted the really ugly really bad start, allowing four goals on five shots before being replaced by Alex Stalock. You're only starting one of their goalies in the event of a very favorable matchup, and the Kraken do not qualify as that right now.
Every single Kraken forward posted at least one point, while six forwards had multi-point games. Jared McCann led the charge with a hat trick, which ended a three-game stretch without a point for him. McCann has a very Cy Young-like 22-8 statline this season, with those 22 goals leading the Kraken.
The Eeli Tolvanen revival in Seattle is alive and well. Since being claimed off waivers, Tolvanen has five goals and two assists in eight games. Seven of those games have been on the road, so the fans at Climate Pledge Arena have only seen him once. He's just 13 percent rostered in Yahoo and 38 percent rostered in Fantrax, so he's still available in a lot of leagues. Even though Tolvanen appears to be in a much better situation in Seattle than in Nashville, his advanced stats (particularly a 19.4 SH% and 12.3 5-on-5 SH%) suggest that a regression is on the way. You may also remember that he also disappeared from the boxscore for long stretches during his time in Nashville.
Daniel Sprong also continues to be hot with eight points in his last nine games. Like Tolvanen, he also has some higher-than-expected advanced stats (4.1 PTS/60, 1107 PDO), which is something to be aware of if adding him (8% Yahoo/32% Fantrax). Yet whether you think they are the real deal or not, the Kraken have taken a host of players that were expendable on other teams and have somehow made it work. Maybe they have a bit of Vegas Golden Knights in them after all.
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Klim Kostin was chosen one pick after Tolvanen in the 2017 draft. How do I remember this? I looked long and hard at adding both players to my keeper team not long after that (I chose Tolvanen but not Kostin). Fast forward several years and Kostin has emerged as being fantasy relevant. The NHL goal scoring is a new thing, as Kostin has goals in three consecutive games and four goals over that span. The Oilers are using Kostin in more of a scoring role, lining him up with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Connor McDavid recently. Whether he is scoring or not, Kostin has bangers value with 90 hits in 40 games with the Blues last season and 84 hits in 29 games with the Oilers this season. I wouldn't be afraid to add him in leagues that count hits (8% Yahoo/18% Fantrax).
Jack Campbell has started and won three consecutive games for the Oilers, including back-to-backs on Friday in San Jose and Saturday in Vegas. Campbell allowed three goals on Saturday, which is the most goals he has allowed in any of his last seven appearances. As much as Stuart Skinner has been better this season and has pushed Campbell to the bench for long stretches this season, teams eventually revert to the guy with the bigger contract. If Campbell can show that he has gotten past his early-season struggles, then he could be in for a stronger second half and may even be worth starting. Something to keep in mind is that he's a very hot-and-cold goalie, so you may not want to miss out on any big run.
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Injuries have derailed Patrik Laine this season. In fact, entering Saturday's game he had not scored a goal since December 17 – a span of nine games. That's quite a dry spell for a player who prides himself on his goal-scoring ability. Yet we also know that Laine can score in bunches. That's what he did on Saturday, scoring three goals in a rare Blue Jackets win. I'd like to suggest that Laine will be in for a better second half, but the Jackets as a team have been so injury-riddled it's difficult to think they will gain any traction. Laine himself has missed double-digit games in each of his last three seasons, so he hasn't exactly been easy to rely on either.
That being said, if your league counts hat tricks as a separate category, Laine is a player to target.
Top Frozen Tools searched player Lucas Raymond has goals in three consecutive games, including a goal on Saturday. He entered Saturday's game with back-to-back three-point games.
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Frederik Andersen was nearly 12 minutes away from a shutout… and then this happened.
Don't let that affect your judgement on Andersen. Since his return from injury, he has posted back-to-back wins and quality starts while allowing a combined three goals.
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Pavel Zacha is staying in Boston. The Bruins signed Zacha to a four-year extension with a $4.75 million AAV. Zacha was acquired by the Bruins during the offseason with just a year left on his existing contract. He has played on an all-Czech line with David Pastrnak and David Krejci for a good portion of the season, so perhaps his signing will move Pastrnak negotiations with the Bruins in the right direction. Pasta is set to become a UFA this offseason.
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I'm going to put the cart before the horse before an official Fantasy Take on Bruce Boudreau being let go by the Canucks, which we all know will happen by the end of the season. If Rick Tocchet replaces Boudreau as the Canucks head coach, expect many Canucks to lose a bit of fantasy value with Tocchet very likely emphasizing a more defensive approach than Boudreau. I'm not going to spend many more keystrokes on this type of analysis, since things can change within the drama-filled Canucks. Just my initial thoughts.
Also, the Canucks need to do the right thing and pull Boudreau from being twisted in the wind like this. Even if Tocchet or whoever the guy is can't coach the team right away (from what I understand, he's still an analyst with TNT), get an interim head coach. It's easy to say because it's not my money and the Canucks could potentially be paying three head coaches (Green, Boudreau, the new guy) until the end of the season. How motivated are the players knowing that the guy barking orders behind the bench won't be around much longer? A coaching change is too little too late for the Canucks at this point, but at least get the ship steered in a positive direction for whatever comes next.
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Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.
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Regarding the Canucks… Montreal brought in Marty St. Louis last season as an interim and the team played much better hockey down the stretch. This season has been a disappointment for the Habs, but a change might not be the worst thing in Vancouver.