Ramblings: Boldy Extended; Kochetkov Demoted; Futures of Terry and Meier; Full Day of NHL Games – January 17

Michael Clifford

2023-01-17

Monday was Martin Luther King Jr. Day in America so there were games all day long. That leaves news a bit more sparse than usual as there were fewer teams having full practices and providing injury updates. However, there was a big restricted free agent signing as the Minnesota Wild locked up winger Matt Boldy:

Boldy was called up in January of 2022, so he basically has one year in the league, but he's performed very well: 27 goals and 68 points in 89 regular season games. Per Evolving Hockey, he is second among the team's forwards this season in expected goals impact at even strength trailing only Ryan Hartman, and he's played half the games Boldy has. Per our own Frozen Tools, he's been driving play while also getting less favourable deployment than the top line:

Cap league owners were probably hoping for some sort of bridge deal to keep down his cap hit for the next couple of years, but this makes a lot of sense for both player and team. Boldy will be a free agent heading into his age-29 season so he has another chance of cashing in if he maintains/improves his play for the duration of his new deal. Minnesota also locks up a potential top-line winger through to 2030. If the cap can keep rising, this could really be a steal in 3-4 years' time.

For now, for Boldy to really be worth it in cap leagues, something has to change. Either growing his peripherals, getting more ice time, or even-strength deployment alongside Kirill Kaprizov. All three would be nice, but if he's a 25-goal, 60-point winger who lands 250 shots on target and posts 60 hits, cap leaguers will have a decision to make in the fall of 2023.

With that said, he's just starting to scratch the surface of his potential. His offensive creativity and instincts are obvious every game and more maturity could easily see him become a 40-goal, point-per-game player in the next couple of seasons. We will see how this goes but with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, there is even more upside to come.

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The Boldy extension just made me think of Timo Meier again. He has played to nearly a 40-goal, 82-point pace over the last two seasons. He does so by playing a hard offensive game that involves lots of physicality, which I'm sure some teams will love. He turns 27 in October and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024. Any team extending him will have to buy a lot of UFA years. San Jose is a franchise that will need good drafting fortune to return to competitiveness in the next couple of seasons. Does that include Meier in its long-term plans?  I wrote about the Swiss flank in the 2023 Dobber Hockey Midseason Draft Guide so go grab your copy from the Dobber Shop for more on him and a slew of other players that could be traded by the deadline.

Two comparable contracts I looked at when looking into Meier's future were Kevin Fiala's and Brayden Point's. The former signed this offseason in Los Angeles and is in his age-26 season, the latter in the 2021 offseason, heading into his age-25 campaign. Fiala got seven years and nearly $7.9M a season while Point got eight years and $9.5M. Centers usually get paid more than wingers, so the difference makes sense, but seeing Meier fall somewhere in the middle would also make sense (something like what Jordan Kyrou just got). How many teams A) are contenders or reasonably can expect to be contenders in the next year or two, B)  have the cap space moving forward for an $8M+ cap hit, and C) have the assets to trade for Meier by the deadline? Three teams come to mind (cap information from Cap Friendly):

  • Buffalo should have done more in the 2022 offseason, and I said as much when Seattle traded for Oliver Bjorkstrand. They went into Monday afternoon’s contest five points out of a playoff spot but with three games in hand. Even if they were to grab just half of those available points, they're effectively one win away from postseason slotting. What difference could someone on a short-term deal like Nino Niederreiter or Nico Sturm have made? Or a bit longer for Mason Marchment? It wouldn't have crippled the long-term cap situations for players like Rasmus Dahlin and may have been what Buffalo needed to get to a playoff spot in 2023, but I digress. The Sabres have three second-round picks in the coming draft, good prospects in the cupboard, and over $50M in cap space next season. They also have a bunch of young players that'll need new contracts in the next couple of years, and that's a balance they'll need to find. With that said, they could easily make a Meier swap work and it could be the boost the forward group needs outside the top line.
  • New Jersey wasn't sure about Jesper Bratt so they gave him a one-year Show Me Deal last summer, and he's shown them by posting a 34-goal, 82-point pace. He is going to get a huge contract this summer and that might take them out of the running for Meier. However, even when adding, say, $8M a year for Bratt, the team will still have over $25M in cap space for 2023-24 and all their top stars are locked up long term. A top-6 of Meier, Hischier, Hughes, Bratt, Palat, and Holtz for the next few years would look pretty good.
  • Los Angeles is the last team to consider. They don't have a ton of cap space for next season, sitting at $14.3M and having to replace both goalies and extend Gabriel Vilardi and Mikey Anderson. However, a lot of money comes off the cap in 2024-25 so they basically just have to make next year work somehow. Maybe it doesn't happen at the deadline, but another first-round exit from the Kings might get them to be a bit aggressive in the offseason.

Anyone else – besides the Chicago/Arizona tier – come to mind for a potential Meier trade? Let us know in the comments.

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Also, it's not really comparable because Boldy is younger than him, but it also made me think of Troy Terry. He is going into his age-26 next season and needs a long-term extension soon, being a year from unrestricted free agency. He is another guy discussed in the Midseason Guide, and someone I've discussed often in these Ramblings pages. Seeing him skate for a contender in a better offensive situation could really unlock his next level of fantasy value. Does Anaheim want to pay out, say, 8 years at $8M a season when they could be years from contending? A thought for Terry dynasty owners and non-owners alike as we barrel towards the Trade Deadline.

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Pittsburgh was at home against Anaheim on Monday night and the team provided good news:

Letang was in Québec with his family following the death of his father. It is good to see him on his way back to the team.

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Some news about Carolina goalie Pyotr Kochetkov and his NHL status, something Dobber predicted in his Ramblings yesterday:

With him being waiver exempt, it was always very possible the Hurricanes would do this when healthy. Unlike Buffalo and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, though, Carolina does not have a few rookies they can send down in paper transactions to effectively keep everyone together, depending on who is starting in goal. The only waiver-exempt player the Hurricanes have besides their goalie is Seth Jarvis. Unless there's injury or gross underperformance, it could be tough sledding for Kochetkov to have any fantasy value this regular season.

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The Leafs announced forward Nick Robertson will have shoulder surgery and will be out for the season. It has been a brutal stretch of bad injury luck for the young Leafs skater to start his career. Hopefully this is the end of that bad luck.

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Edmonton had Evander Kane in a full practice on Monday. He wasn't set to return just yet by his initial timeline, but he sure seems near ready to go. We will update further when we get more information, as stacking the top line would indicate to me that he's not set to return just yet, but more on this as it becomes available.

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Valeri Nichushkin returned to the Colorado lineup on Monday afternoon, skating on the second line with Mikko Rantanen and JT Compher, sliding onto the top power-play unit in place of Evan Rodrigues.

Nichushkin skated under 19 minutes, had an assist with four shots and one hit in the team's 6-3 victory over Detroit. That this Avalanche team was up 5-0 with 22 minutes left in the game and Nichushkin still skated 18:54 in his return from injury should indicate the level of ice time he should receive when games aren't blowout.

Nathan MacKinnon led the charge for the Avs with two goals and two assists, posting five shots on goal. He now has 13 points and 46 shots on goal in eight games since returning from injury. It does not seem like he wants the team to miss the playoffs.

Cale Makar had two goals and an assists, putting him over the point-per-game mark once again with 43 in 42 games played.

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Boston laid a beatdown on Philadelphia by a 6-0 score on Monday afternoon, and that resulted in Carter Hart getting pulled halfway through the game. Hart had a .937 save percentage through the team's first 10 games and has put up an .891 save percentage in the 22 games since.

Pavel Zacha celebrated his new contract with two goals and an assist, David Pastrnak had the same, and David Krejci had three assists as the second line did most of the damage in this contest. Krejci now has 34 points in 38 games and could have reasonably pushed for 70 points had he been healthy all year.

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On the topic of second lines, Florida's posted two goals and four assists on Monday afternoon in Buffalo in the team's 4-1 win. Matthew Tkachuk had three of those four helpers while Carter Verhaghe had one of each while Sam Bennett scored. Verhaeghe now has 20 goals in just 44 games played. His career 82-game pace in a Florida uniform is 31 goals and he's done (almost) all of it at even strength. We are now in a place with him as we were with Nikolaj Ehlers for years: what could he do, production-wise, with top power-play minutes?

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen played well enough, with three goals allowed on 33 shots, but it now makes seven straight games where he's allowed at least three goals. He has not allowed fewer than two in any of his 16 starts this season. Just something fantasy owners should keep in mind.

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Jake Oettinger stopped all 27 shots he faced in Dallas's 4-0 win over Vegas last night. It was his third shutout of the season, and it moves him to a .926 save percentage. What had been a bane of the Stars franchise during their contending years, goaltending is now a strength.

Vegas really just doesn't look the same with Mark Stone missing from the lineup. He is not a guy they can be without if they want a deep playoff run.

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Pittsburgh needed to score with an empty net to tie Anaheim late by a 3-3 score, but still managed two points thanks to an overtime winner from Jake Guentzel. He, Evgeni Malkin, and Jason Zucker each had a goal and an assist while Rickard Rakell chipped in a trio of helpers.

Trevor Zegras had a goal and an assist in the loss, just his third multi-point effort in his last 22 games.

John Klingberg also scored in the overtime defeat, his six of the season. It ties his total from last year in half as many games (37). It is just a shame that he only has eight assists as well.

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