Flip Livingstone’s Picks

As the NHL trade rumor mill continues to turn, teams across the league are beginning a crucial stretch of the schedule – both in the front office in terms of GMs tinkering with their lineups and of course, on the ice as clubs jockey for postseason positioning.

Either way you want to break it down, we're in for a real treat of a Saturday with no shortage of juicy matchups to take in.

In terms of my recent track record on the Saturday picks front for Dobber Hockey, an overall record of 20-9-1 has me in decent standing so far at the halfway point of the year. However, it's my side bet record of 13-1-1 that gets me fired up for another big evening hopefully on tap.

With only four teams in action Friday evening, a whopping 14 games await us on the NHL board on Saturday. Let's break a few of those down and make some money. Good luck! 

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2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)

Gold: 2-3
Silver: 2-3
Bronze: 3-2
Side bets: 13-1-1

Total Saturday Record: 20-9-1

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Gold Selection

Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Oilers ML (-169)

There's something to be said about the kind of bluntness (or boldness, depending on where you sit) Jim Rutherford displayed at this past week's now infamous press conference where the Vancouver Canucks' interim GM touched on a number of spicy topics. Without getting too much into it, the main message is this: the Canucks are a complete mess and that means it's time to bet against them with gusto and regularity.

Before we even get into how good Jack Campbell and the Edmonton Oilers have been of late, we just need to quickly take a look at how awful the Canucks look. Vancouver has only one win in its last seven games but it's the last two matchups that seem most indicative of where this team is headed. A 5-2 beatdown at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning and a neat-and-tidy 4-1 win for the Colorado Avalanche just last night. Sure, those are two good teams with legit Stanley Cup aspirations but this Canucks group just needs to be so much better at every single position.

This is already a tough spot for a Vancouver squad on the second night of a back-to-back but the fact they have to deal with the red-hot Oilers might be just the kind of blow-up-type scenario that is the final straw for Bruce Boudreau behind the Canucks' bench. Speaking of the red-hot Oilers, Campbell has been a big reason for Edmonton's current streak, posting sensational numbers (5-0-0, .922 save percentage over his last five starts) while getting time with Stuart Skinner with his family for the birth of his child.

The Oilers are in a really good spot here, they're playing solid hockey, and they've posted wins in six of their last seven trips to Vancouver. Enough said. Edmonton on the moneyline for my Gold Pick of the evening.

Silver Selection

Minnesota Wild @ Florida Panthers – Pick: OVER 6.5 (-115)

I say it often and I will say it again when it comes to my prep and research for this article: there is always one total that jumps off the page for me and this is my top choice for a high-scoring tilt. A quick dive into the recent numbers between these two teams indicate a heavy lean to the OVER, as eight of the last nine meetings featuring Minny and Florida have finished OVER the number.

The last three matchups alone between the Wild and Panthers produced a crooked 26 total goals, which included their most-recent meeting, a 6-2 Florida victory. Both clubs are clicking right now offensively, so this number could easily be up to seven. I would jump on it while you can at 6.5.

Another key factor contributing to my comfort laying a nice-size wager on this one going OVER is what I've seen lately from the Panthers' goaltending situation. Whether that be netminders Sergei Bobrovsky, Alex Lyon, or the returning Spencer Knight who was recently deployed for an AHL stint, there is really no one on this Cats roster that is comfortable in the blue paint right now. This has resulted in a number of high-scoring games for the Panthers over their last 10.

Let's keep this one extra simple and go with OVER here, good for my Silver selection.

Bronze Selection

Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders – Pick: Hurricanes ML (-164)

The Carolina Hurricanes' forward group was dealt another injury blow Friday with the news of winger Max Pacioretty after the winger re-injured his Achilles and will be once again out long-term. This is undoubtedly a tough blow to a team that is already looking for a shot in the arm offensively, as the Canes sit 17th in the NHL in total goals scored and tied for 25th in power-play percentage. However, this is still, arguably, the stingiest defensive group in the NHL, one that currently occupies the top spot in the Metro Division.

Not only am I going with what is clearly the better team, but the Hurricanes own the Islanders over their last 13 meetings, with Carolina taking two points in 11 of those matchups.

I can't really fully put my finger on why the Islanders have been so up-and-down this season, especially since I am so high on the talent Ilya Sorokin possesses, but the Isles have been mostly average. Their 2-5-3 record over their past 10 overall coupled with the recent trend of Carolina domination and I think the Hurricanes continue to roll.

Carolina on the moneyline for my Bronze Pick of the night.

Side Bets

Winnipeg Jets @ Ottawa Senators – Pick: Senators ML (+118)

Winnipeg Jets @ Ottawa Senators – Pick: OVER 6 (-115)

Auston Matthews Anytime Goal (-150)

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Brad Hayward’s Picks

It's not fun to pile on, but the Vancouver Canucks are falling apart fast.  When a team goes down 4-0 midway through a hockey game, we often see a goalie change, just to send a message.  The 'Nucks are right there, for the season.  It's hard to imagine Bruce Boudreau turning this around.  My impression is that the "fault" here lies above him, though.  Fans and fantasy players all knew that Vancouver needed a better team defense, and management…. well, we shouldn't expect Jim Rutherford to blame himself.   Go ahead and hire Rick Tocchet, but don't expect Spencer Martin and Collin Delia to rescue the porous D.

Speaking of defensemen, I'm simply not a fan of awarding the Norris Trophy to the highest scoring D-man. Erik Karlsson has 62 points, yes, but he's actually hurting his team. Sure, 45 points at even strength but a (-5) plus/minus suggests that he does nothing more than wave at opponents' forwards as they run past him. And the ill-timed gaffes are a big part of the Sharks' season ranking below Vancouver. I do understand that +/- isn't universally regarded as an important statistic, but team final scores are.  

Season Stats

Gold 4-1-0 (Auston Matthews has scored in seven of his last nine games, but broke my unbeaten streak on January 7)

Silver 1-3-1

Bronze 2-3-0

Side bets 7-5-0

Gold Selection

Edmonton Oilers @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Connor McDavid scores a goal (-155)

It feels like the lowest-hanging fruit ever.  I'd make Side-bets # 1 and 2 that Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scores (+165), and that Edmonton covers -1.5 goals (+125).  I didn't find odds that this is Boudreau's final game behind the bench, but I'd go there, too. 

Silver Selection

Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders – Pick: Under 5.5 goals (-115)

In UBS Arena, this will feel like a playoff contest, and be tight on both sides. Ilya Sorokin has been stellar all year (2.32 GAA and 0.926 save%), but with poor offensive support – the Isles have scored an average of 2.25 goals/game for Sorokin's last eight starts.  And Frederik Andersen has been lights-out in his three contests since his return (3-0-0, 1.67 GAA, 0.944 save%).   I was surprised the line wasn't 4.5 goals for this matchup.  

Bronze Selection

Arizona Coyotes @ Dallas Stars – Pick: Jamie Benn to score a goal (+240)

Yeah, I know that my bronze picks tend to be out in left field, but before Thursday's contest in L.A., Benn has averaged 2.7 SOG/game for his past ten games, and the captain will find the net at home against Connor Ingram and the Coyotes.  He's on a four-game point streak, and already has 41 points this season, after a disappointing 46 total for 2021-22.  

Side Bets

Vegas over Washington (-110 ML)

Stick tap: to Jeremy Swayman for a terrific start to 2023.  The Bruins' backup had a save percentage below .900 until the calendar rolled over, but has gone 4-0-0 with a 1.00 GAA and  0.966 SV%, including his 3-1 victory at Madison Square Garden on Thursday. This kid (ok, he's 24) from Alaska is the real deal.