Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. This week, we will take a deep dive into several prospects who appear to be on the decline to determine whether fantasy managers should sell now or buy low and stay patient.

One thing I did not realize about the journey of many Russian prospects is that they can be constantly—as in even daily—switching between levels. In North America, teams will tend to play prospects at a given level for an extended stretch of games, but check out what Danila Yurov (MIN) has been dealing with:

It is unclear why Yurov has apparently not played a game anywhere since January 9, but lately he has been going game-for-game between the MHL (junior) and KHL (top men's league). That back and forth meant that he played six games over a seven-game stretch between January 3 and 9. Unsurprisingly, he has been scoring more against his peers, playing up to nearly 21 minutes in the MHL versus the ridiculous minute and change he has been seeing lately in the KHL.

Fantasy managers will have to monitor Yurov's contract situation closely because his current deal with Magnitogorsk expires at the end of 2022-23. There is a chance he comes over to North America and begins next season with Iowa (AHL) but we won't know until we know.

Perusing his average ice time in the KHL this year, I wonder if Yurov is facing the same situation as fellow Wild prospect Marat Khusnutdinov faced last year. Khusnutdinov's playing time dwindled and his spot on the Russian national team was in jeopardy. Then he signed a new two-year KHL contract and was made captain of Russia's submission to the 2020 U20 World Juniors. This year, Khusnutdinov's playing time has regularly exceeded 16 minutes a game on a stacked SKA St. Petersburg club and he has responded with a solid 29 points in 52 games so far. He will play one more year in Russia and then be eligible to come to North America as a 21-year-old.

Yurov, 19, has likewise seen his KHL ice time dwindle drastically over the course of the season:

Month	Time On Ice (mins)
September	10:69
October	14:00
November	8:84
December	5:06
January	1:64

There may be other factors at play here—such as injury or inconsistent play—but this is a dramatic drop in opportunity that has also corresponded with his yo-yo deployment between the two leagues. If I had to put on my cynical fantasy hat and attempt to divine the future, I would guess that Yurov will follow Khusnutdinov's path and sign in Russia for another year or two. For now, he continues to be a longer-term, high-upside stash in keepers and dynasties.

In case you are losing hope already, let me remind you that Yurov had the highest star potential (70%) in last year's draft according to the Hockey Prospecting model. That rating came on the strength of him absolutely destroying the MHL to the tune of 36 points in 23 games.

Danila Yurov has an insane profile in the model. He looks very similar to how Kucherov looked in the MHL in his draft year (although Kucherov was much younger, relatively). A top 5 talent dropped way far! pic.twitter.com/OnbVriunbO

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) July 8, 2022

Compared to other top leagues, the sample size of NHL players who came out of the MHL is relatively small—to the point that Mason Black's PNHLe model does not yet account for players from that league. And while his star potential has dropped to the mid-40s, we have seen that there is important context for that decline in production. He only has 11 points in ten MHL games in 2022-23 but it has likely been difficult to find his groove playing only sporadically.

In his draft year, Yurov was given above-average skill ratings (5+) by Elite Prospects across the board, with particular recognition given to his high-end (6.5) skating and puck handling. Consistent themes from the EP scouts who observed him included excellent footspeed, powerful physicality, and advanced spatial awareness.

Some of those skills can be seen in the following sequence: he enters the zone with speed and goes right at the defender, pushing off to create a pocket of space that he then uses to receive a pass and roof the puck via a one-touch deflection.

I know there's a lot of uncertainty around the Russians at the draft, but I wonder if Hextall would be able to ignore Danila Yurov if he falls to 21. Would likely be the easy best player available at that point. Kid is an absolute bully. Steamrolls to the net. Ureal shot. pic.twitter.com/CNzaF6og9D

— Jesse Marshall (@jmarshfof) July 6, 2022

Keep your fingers crossed that Yurov will decide to come over earlier, but do not be disappointed if he delays his North American arrival until 2025-26. His value feels surprisingly low in fantasy right now, and poolies will only sour further if he re-ups in Russia for another couple years. On Dobber's most recent Top Forward Prospects ranking, Yurov has fallen in recent months from 143 to 146 to 147—almost in danger of exiting the top 150 entirely. If you can afford the stash, he remains a high-upside, under-the-radar prospect who will eventually join a dynamic young Wild squad.

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Another player whose stock has seemingly been on the decline in recent months is Peyton Krebs (BUF), 21. He is a higher-profile prospect than Yurov but now sits at tenth overall on Dobber's rankings after being sixth two months ago. His Wins Above Replacement % has hit rock bottom, and his 24-point pace and current 4th-line deployment make him an excellent buy-low target in keeper formats.

There are plenty of juicy red flags to wave in front of his owner in your pool right now but I also see plenty of reason for optimism. The first is opportunity: he has averaged a paltry 12:34 per game on the fourth line with minimal power-play time. Good production is challenging for the best of players in circumstances like that, and when Krebs starts getting more ice time and offensive zone starts, his numbers will quickly rise across the board. He has also been quite unlucky (966 PDO) and saddled with average-at-best linemates in Kyle Okposo and Zemgus Girgensons.

Nevertheless, Krebs has continued to drive play (54.7 CorsiFor) and involve himself in scoring (65 IPP). Last game against Anaheim, for instance, his line was easily Buffalo's best: they dominated shot attempts 8-2 and produced a goal (scored by Krebs) while allowing none. But again, Krebs saw no time in with the man advantage and was instead used when the Sabres were shorthanded.

Here is his goal, a terrific snipe from the hash marks with defenders all around him:

Peyton Krebs makes it 6-3 Sabres. pic.twitter.com/mfjSYiNbLQ

— The Charging Buffalo (@TheChargingBUF) January 21, 2023

Other reasons for optimism include the fact that Krebs is still 100 games away from hitting his 200-game Breakout Threshold and has had an excellent trajectory dating back to his draft year in 2019. One of the most telling factors that determines whether a given player will become an NHL star is the age at which they have their first season with an NHL equivalency of 40—to the point that I now think of that as a magic number of sorts with prospects.

Krebs hit a 39 NHLe in his D+1, which is solid even though we'd prefer to see that number arrive a year earlier. Then he was hit by Covid disruptions in his D+2, as most players were, but still managed five points in five AHL games to generate a 40 NHLe. And he followed that up with a 44 NHLe the following year back in junior before putting up 15 points in 18 AHL games in his D+3. That is an excellent trajectory, and the bigger picture helps contextualize his current lack of NHL production. It will come, just be patient.

This Sabres squad is built similarly to the Wild: young, talented, and still developing. I anticipate Krebs will break out just as the team in general really begins to hit its stride. Other key forwards on this team (Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, Jack Quinn) are likely out of your price range already, but my sense is that poolies are overlooking Krebs right now. He is probably the cheapest way to get a significant slice of a Buffalo pie that will only become more valuable as the team ascends the standings in the coming years.

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What have the Washington Capitals done to Connor McMichael? Somewhat like Philip Tomasino (NAS), I assumed after McMichael played 68 games with Capitals last year that he had made the NHL for good. But over his first 20 games in 2022-23, McMichael sat 14 times as a healthy scratch. In the games he did play, he averaged under nine minutes a night alongside depth players like Lars Eller and Aliaksei Protas.

In terms of trajectory, McMichael was a classic London Knights prospect in that he managed an adequate enough draft year (72 points in 67 games) in a limited role to warrant a late-first-round selection but then exploded (102 points in 52 games) the following year when the Knights featured him in a top-line role. He had an NHLe of 52 that year, which suggested he was on a clear path to stardom. He also scored 15 points across 14 U20 WJC games in back-to-back years and then had a stellar introduction to the AHL at age 20 with 27 points in 33 games. His skill set was highlighted by IQ and a high-end shot. There seemed to be an excellent fit for him on the wing in Washington, slamming home silky passes from Nicklas Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov.

But despite the fact that he turned in a decent NHL rookie season last year (22-point pace playing ten minutes a night), he has seemingly been in Coach Laviolette's dog house right from the get-go in 2022-23. His NHL data set is too small this year to draw any reliable conclusions, so there are fewer signs for optimism with McMichael than there are with Krebs. His 14 points in 23 AHL games since being sent down in late November are certainly underwhelming, though it should be noted that Hershey is the top team in the AHL right now and the coaching staff were likely reluctant to mess with their team chemistry too much when McMichael joined two months into the year.

The only metric that suggests some optimism is still warranted is the fact that he is averaging almost 3.5 shots per game in the minors. Given that his shot is his hallmark, much like Adam Beckman (MIN) and William Dufour (NYI), it is encouraging to see him still displaying a shoot-first mentality. I imagine his confidence has been rattled by his deployment this year but this shot volume suggests he is still willing to try things and involve himself in the play.

Connor McMichael's 8th of the season is a beauty to tie this one at two! #SPRvsHER pic.twitter.com/BfpWvivtlt

— Bears Hockey Nation (@HBHNationBlog) January 15, 2023

I advise treating McMichael as a cautious buy low at this point. While snipers are exciting in fantasy because they provide both goals and shots, they can sometimes become overly reliant on that asset and develop in the mould of Patrik Laine, who still has not yet capitalized on his vast offensive potential because of ongoing defensive deficiencies. It would not be surprising to see McMichael rejoin the Capitals at some point this year; unless something significant changes, however, I doubt Laviolette features him in the top six. If you own him already or acquire him now for cheap, look ahead to next year when he will hopefully break camp with the Capitals and start fresh with a renewed commitment to the intangibles that distinguish NHL players from their AHL counterparts.

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Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.