A big boost to the Ottawa lineup came recently with the return of Josh Norris. He even scored on Saturday night in the team's loss to Winnipeg. That bit of good news has not lasted, though, as the team gave a brutal update to Norris on Monday:

Josh Norris will have shoulder surgery. Season is over. #Sens

— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) January 23, 2023

Once the surgery happens and we get a timeline, we will pass it along, but the hope now is to just have him 100% for offseason training and ready for training camp in September.

The team then really shuffled around their forward line combinations at practice on Monday:

Today's combos for those keeping score at home. #Sens

Tkachuk-Stützle-Joseph
DeBrincat-Greig-Giroux
Brassard-Pinto-Batherson
Kelly-Kastelic-Watson
Motte-Gambrell-Chartier

Chabot-Holden
Sanderson-Hamonic
Brannstrom-Zaitsev

— Bruce Garrioch (@SunGarrioch) January 23, 2023

That is Ridly Greig at center, as he was called up. He has 12 goals and 23 points in 28 games with AHL's Belleville this season. The 20-year-old is shooting over 21% down there, though, so we'll have to see how much of that goal-scoring can translate to the NHL.  

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Some quick updates on Filip Zadina and Tyler Bertuzzi:

#RedWings practice before hosting San Jose tomorrow. Bertuzzi (groin) not skating. If he's out tomorrow, and it looks that way, they could put him on IR to free roster spot for Zadina, if he's ready. pic.twitter.com/w5gyBIeoHY

— Ansar Khan (@AnsarKhanMLive) January 23, 2023

It is good news that it doesn't seem like Bertuzzi's injury doesn't seem too bad and that Zadina may be ready to return. He is a forward that needs to start showing the promise he was drafted for if the team wants to take another step in 2023.

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Noah Dobson did not play on Monday night after suffering some sort of injury over the weekend. He did practice a bit in the morning, though, so it doesn't seem like something that should keep him out for weeks.

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Florida made a move in net, and one that Spencer Knight fantasy owners were hoping to see:

Spencer Knight was recalled this morning, Maurice said the goaltender situation looking ahead to tomorrow vs. Penguins is "open"

He did add that Lyon is the freshest and he could play in both, however told me it would make sense to split them.

— Katie Engleson (@KatieEngleson) January 23, 2023

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St. Louis with an update that is somewhat of a non-update on Torey Krug and Vladimir Tarasenko:

Berube waiting for Tarasenko and Krug to tell him they're ready to go but he thinks they are. #stlblues

— Lou Korac (@lkorac10) January 23, 2023

It is always up to A) being medically cleared and B) player comfort so this update feels unnecessary, but fantasy owners should know they're on the cusp of returning.

Pavel Buchnevich was not at practice and the team said it was a lingering issue.

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Sam Bennett was hurt tying up skates with Filip Chytil in Florida's game in New York on Monday night. He kind of went hard into the boards doing the splits and had to be helped off the ice. He did not return. Just by my eyes, it looked bad as he grabbed the back of his right leg, but we will have to wait for an official timeline from the team.

The Rangers ended up taking the 6-2 win from Florida, partially thanks to Mika Zibanejad posting two goals and an assist. It is just his second three-point game since Halloween, but he now has four such games on the campaign. He had four all of last season, so he's definitely scoring in bunches this campaign (it might be why he's over a point-per-game pace).

Alexis Lafrenière had a goal and an assist in what is hopefully the start of a second-half turnaround.

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Toronto skated away with a 5-2 win over the New York Islanders last night. William Nylander had a four-point night with two of each, managing four total shots and a plus-3 rating. He is now on pace for 45 goals and 95 points, which would both easily be career-best marks.

John Tavares had a goal and an assist while Auston Matthews also scored, landing five total shots on goal. The Tavares goal was on the power play, just his second PP goal since American Thanksgiving, a span of 27 games. He does have nine on the season and needs four more to tie a career-high of 13 set with the Islanders eight years ago.

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Roope Hintz was back for Dallas on Monday night, but was skating on the second line with Mason Marchment and Denis Gurianov. Tyler Seguin remained on the top line alongside Jason Robertson, so it seems Dallas is going to try this out for now. It isn't great news for Hintz if this is a long-term lineup configuration.

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Whenever players start performing better (or worse) than they have in the past, fantasy owners should immediately dig into why that is and whether it's sustainable. There are shortcuts to look for like shooting percentage and individual points percentage (IPP). However, whether it can be sustainable or not often comes down to just creating more offence. Are there more shots, more scoring chances, more power plays, or more anything else that could be of value here? That is what to look for.

One set of data I've mentioned in these Ramblings before is Corey Sznajder's tracking data. He hand-tracks hundreds of games every season and the micro-stats he pulls can be very valuable for fantasy players. The data being looked at here is scoring chance contributions per 60 minutes (SCC/60) at 5-on-5, and that is simply adding individual scoring chances and assists on teammate scoring chances together. Not only is there strong in-season correlation to future points, but it helps separate those along for the ride with those driving the bus.

For those reasons, let's look at the biggest increases in SCC/60 from last season to this season. We have a decent sample size from 2022-23, with large swaths of players being over 150 minutes, and many over 200. It isn't huge, but it's something to work with, and can at least help point us in the direction of players to whom we should be paying attention.  For TOI limits, we will keep it to forwards with at least 250 minutes tracked last season that also have 125 minutes tracked this season.

It should go without saying but there are some very obvious options like Tage Thompson, Jamie Benn, and Zach Hyman that we can just skip over. Those guys are all having great seasons and creating more scoring chances is one reason why. Let's look elsewhere. Data from Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick.

Brady Tkachuk

The largest increase in SCC/60 among all forwards in this sample belongs to Tkachuk The Younger:

That increase of over seven SCC/60 is an 86% increase over what he did a year ago. His point production hasn't increased by the same amount, obviously, but he is over a point per game on the campaign with 47 in 46 contests. The 23-year-old had 67 points in 79 games last season, so Tkachuk's increased SCC/60 would seem to be helping here. The problem is that his points/60 minutes (2.15) is actually down from last season (2.17) as the team's shooting percentage has declined with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Tkachuk's production boost has come from the power play, not at even strength.  

On the season, Tkachuk has spent 222 of his 614 minutes of 5-on-5 play with Drake Batherson. In those 222 minutes, Batherson has a grand total of one (1) goal on 29 shots. There are other examples like this, but it stood out. Is it a function of bad luck, Tkachuk's passes not being ideal for scoring, something else, or some mix of these? Regardless, Tkachuk has genuinely stepped up his offensive game a significant margin and better finishing (from him and his line mates) will do wonders in future seasons. That finishing is the crux of all of this, though.  

Dominik Kubalik

The second-largest increase in raw totals belongs to Kubalik, who added 7.2 SCC/60 to his profile from last season. The percentage increase is massive as he went from 2.72 to 9.93, or over a 250% increase. Now, 2021-22 was a particularly bad season for him so he started from a very bad place, but even the year before – the Bubble 2021 campaign – saw him below the league average in SCC/60. This season has seen him push 23% above the league average, by comparison. He has genuinely been very good offensively this season either by SCC or by points per game.

If we want a reason why Kubalik hasn't been producing well at 5-on-5 this season, it's his IPP, or the rate at which he garners a point when Detroit scores a goal with him on the ice. His three years in Chicago saw him with a 71.4% IPP but his first season in Detroit has him at 58.3%. It might not seem like a lot, but a normal IPP would see him with 5-6 more points by the end of the season, possibly clearing his previous career-best by 20 points.

The inconsistent play from Kubalik this season has seen him move all around the lineup, a microcosm of his career. More of what he's done in his first 45 games could go a long way to seeing him in the league for the rest of this decade.

Rangers Kids

We won't dig in too much here because I covered Alexis Lafrenière's performance this season a couple weeks ago and have discussed Kaapo Kakko in this regard as well. Just know that they have the seventh and sixth largest increases in SCC/60 from last season, respectively, with Kakko more than doubling his output:

Neither has seen an increase in points per 60 minutes, though, so a lot of it is for naught.

Despite increasing their SCC/60, Evolving Hockey has both players with their worst expected goals-for impacts of their last three seasons. Is it that these players are learning to play a different way and it's sacrificing offence in some areas while adding it in others? There's something going on here and I'm not sure what, but both of these young wingers are very interesting in the fantasy realm for dynasty leagues.   

Ryan O'Reilly

This might surprise some people – it surprised me – but the fifth-largest year-over-year increase in SCC/60 goes to the St. Louis Blues center that is currently injured:

Like some others on this list, O'Reilly has actually seen a decline in points/60 at 5-on-5 this year despite an increase in SCC/60. The reason is the team is shooting 7.7% with him on the ice compared to 9.6% over the prior three seasons. A normal team shooting percentage would add a couple points to his total, and more than that over a full season. Beyond that, his IPP is 63.2%, a five-year low, and well below the 69.9% from his prior three seasons. When everything doesn't line up, even generating more offence can't help.

But it is important to note that his offensive contributions are still very strong and that he's not simply a defensive center. The trade deadline is a little over five weeks away and O'Reilly is a pending UFA. There are a number of teams that could use him for a postseason run like Carolina, Edmonton, Colorado, Pittsburgh, and Vegas. Depending on where he lands, he could be an important multi-cat fantasy asset for the final six weeks of the campaign.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

In a weird twist of fate, RNH has seen a big increase in SCC/60 but it's his power-play production that is floating his fantasy value: over half (29) of his points (57) have come with the man advantage. However, his points/60 at 5-on-5 is sitting at 1.9, higher than either of his prior two seasons, and better than his three-year average of 1.65. The additional SCC has led to more scoring at 5-on-5 and that, along with the elite power play, is making RNH a threat to push past 90 points and perhaps crack 100. That feels unfathomable for a 29-year-old without a 70-point season to his name, but here we are.

The other twist here is his lack of ice time with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at 5-on-5. RNH has over 631 minutes at 5-on-5 this season and less than 42% of that time has come with either, or both, of those superstars on the ice. In fact, in his time with McDavid, RNH has a points/60 at 5-on-5 rate under 1.3. He has done most of his damage either in his limited time with Draisaitl, or with neither of them on the ice.

If Edmonton has hopes of being able to run three lines that can score, Nugent-Hopkins keeping up this offensive play is paramount. It could change what they do at the trade deadline, too.

Yanni Gourde

In a delightful bit of irony, Gourde is shooting under 6% at 5-on-5 against a three-year average of 10.9%. A normal shooting percentage in this regard would have Gourde over a 60-point pace, a mark he hasn't reached in four straight campaigns. The irony is that Seattle, as a team, is by far the leader in shooting percentage at 5-on-5 at 10.7%. No other team is above 10%, and the next-closest is Boston at 9.6%. The gap between Seattle (1^st) and Boston (2^nd) is larger than the gap between Boston and Arizona (15^th, 8.6%). Maybe one reason Seattle is doing that is Gourde landing just inside the top-20 for SCC/60 increases from last season:

The team is shooting nearly 10% with him on the ice at 5-on-5, his highest mark in five years, and is a big reason why he also has a five-year high in points/60 at 5-on-5 despite the drastic drop in shooting percentage.

When looking at Gourde's production, it's important to remember he has no role on the power play; he has a grand total of seven minutes with the man advantage. All his production has come at even strength and he has as many 5-on-5 points (26) as Alex Ovechkin and Jesper Bratt. What could happen if he ever got a regular PP role, even in a split-TOI situation?