Cap League Goalie Rankings – January 2023

Alexander MacLean

2023-01-26

My favourite part about the goalie rankings is that I managed to automate the tier and the rating system independently, and they work to show different things. The tier system will likely show you the goalies in an order much closer to how they are likely to be drafted, or valued by your fellow fans and fantasy GMs.

At the moment, the top-ranked goalie by the rating system is still only in tier-three. That's mainly because Logan Thompson is an unproven rookie, and we haven't seen how well he holds up over the course of a season, and whether he can come back in October with a workhorse-starter mindset, and still produce the same results. We have also seen Jeremy Swayman produce excellent results on his ELC, though it is uncertain whether he can wrestle the starter's job away from Linus Ullmark.

On the flip side, we see tier-one goalies sliding down the ratings list, as their bigger contracts allow less room for them to out-perform their pay. These players are tested, generally on good teams, and are a lot less prone to bad starts and bad seasons. That is worth a lot in a draft or in a trade, but over the course of the season it does mean that there is a lot less upside for your fantasy team.

Depending on what goaltending stats you're looking for, either percentages or volume, you will be looking for different things at this point in the year. If it's just percentages, you're gravitating to the goalies on better teams, with Martin Jones, Vitek Vanecek, and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen seeing their stocks increase from the start of the year. If you're looking for volume, all three of those are still good, but when you just need volume and you can forego the percentages, there are usually cheaper options to acquire. Carter Hart, Petr Mrazek, and James Reimer are all options to look at, and now you can also look towards Anton Forsberg with Cam Talbot getting injured yesterday, there is always a goalie solution for a reasonable price.

Standard pre-rankings note:

This isn't meant to be a be-all and end-all rating system for you to use without thinking and just trade your players for anyone above them on the list that you can find, but used with some foresight for managing salaries. Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of rookies. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.

The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.

The goalie list comes not only with a rankings system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).

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If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.

Comments help with optimizing the values, because they're not perfect and they never will be.

We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared, though the scale of the ratings has changed a little since the last update.

RankNameAgeCap HitYrsRatingTierPrev Rnk
1Logan Thompson25$766,6673472.7031
2Igor Shesterkin27$5,666,6673267.0912
3Jeremy Swayman24$925,0001249.00211
4Jake Oettinger24$4,000,0003240.1018
5Ilya Sorokin27$4,000,0002238.2823
6Vitek Vanecek27$3,400,0003234.3824
7Ilya Samsonov25$1,800,0001231.3037
8Linus Ullmark29$5,000,0003231.1015
9Alexandar Georgiev26$3,400,0003226.5236
10Juuse Saros27$5,000,0003220.6129
11Connor Hellebuyck29$6,166,6662213.89313
12Tristan Jarry27$3,500,0001209.54112
13Filip Gustavsson24$787,5001202.31427
14Andrei Vasilevskiy28$9,500,0006196.26118
15Spencer Knight21$925,0001186.72210
16Darcy Kuemper32$5,250,0005184.65116
17Jordan Binnington29$6,000,0005182.09320
18Pheonix Copley31$825,0001181.445NR
19Jacob Markstrom32$6,000,0004179.53115
20Carter Hart24$3,979,0002179.30325
21Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen23$837,5002177.60453
22Ville Husso27$4,750,0003177.58217
23Pavel Francouz32$2,000,0002176.01223
24Anton Forsberg30$2,750,0003174.48414
25Frederik Andersen33$4,500,0001174.38119
26Jack Campbell31$5,000,0005174.09222
27Jake Allen32$2,875,0001168.97426
28Martin Jones33$2,000,0001166.31528
29Dan Vladar25$750,0001165.99441
30James Reimer34$2,250,0001165.47421
31Charlie Lindgren29$1,100,0003164.98339
32Spencer Martin27$762,5002154.85438
33Adin Hill26$2,175,0001153.67429
34Cam Talbot35$3,666,6661150.48432
35Pyotr Kochetkov23$842,5001147.42355
36Thatcher Demko27$5,000,0004142.36324
37Marc-Andre Fleury38$3,500,0002141.53540
38Matt Murray28$6,250,0002138.55549
39Casey DeSmith31$1,800,0002137.92536
40Stuart Skinner39$750,0001135.63660
41Felix Sandstrom26$775,0002132.95433
42Antti Raanta33$2,000,0001131.62335
43Sergei Bobrovsky34$10,000,0004130.98346
44Petr Mrazek30$3,800,0002130.43543
45Anthony Stolarz29$950,0001130.29530
46Elvis Merzlikins28$5,400,0005128.60442
47Joonas Korpisalo28$1,300,0001126.72537
48Sam Montembeault26$1,000,0002125.57554
49Scott Wedgewood30$1,000,0001123.66548
50Eric Comrie27$1,800,0002121.17534
51John Gibson29$6,400,0005120.87431
52Philipp Grubauer31$5,900,0005118.95458
53Connor Ingram25$733,3331117.34550
54Semyon Varlamov34$5,000,0001116.48651
55Karel Vejmelka39$2,725,0003114.29557
56Mackenzie Blackwood26$2,800,0001113.83552
57Brian Elliott37$900,0001110.90656
58Craig Anderson41$1,500,0001108.88659
59David Rittich30$900,0001108.30562
60Cal Petersen28$5,000,0003108.24544
61Akira Schmid22$850,8332103.876NR
62Daniil Tarasov23$1,050,0003103.195NR

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 03 - 19:04 MTL vs BOS
Apr 03 - 19:04 OTT vs T.B
Apr 03 - 19:04 CBJ vs COL
Apr 03 - 20:04 DAL vs NSH
Apr 03 - 20:04 STL vs PIT
Apr 03 - 21:04 UTA vs L.A
Apr 03 - 21:04 CGY vs ANA
Apr 03 - 22:04 VGK vs WPG
Apr 03 - 22:04 S.J vs EDM

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LANE HUTSON MTL
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS WSH
RYAN LEONARD WSH
JACKSON BLAKE CAR
NICK SUZUKI MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
KEVIN MANDOLESE COL
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency SEA Players
18.6 JANI NYMAN KAAPO KAKKO MATTY BENIERS
14.1 SHANE WRIGHT JARED MCCANN ANDRE BURAKOVSKY
13.4 RYAN WINTERTON CHANDLER STEPHENSON JORDAN EBERLE

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