Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

The Rangers' "Kid Line" of Alexis Lafreniere (21), Kaapo Kakko (21), and Filip Chytil (23) has been hot lately: Chytil has led the way with 12 points in his last 11 games, while Lafreniere has four in his last four, and Kakko has five in his last five. Each of these players are widely rostered and hold a ton of fantasy intrigue, so it is encouraging to see some production from them. We will kick things off this week by examining each player's trajectory to assess whether or not their recent production is sustainable and a sign of things to come.

First, here is what this line looks like when they are firing on all cylinders.

Make it 13-5*

Chytil with his second goal of the game set up by a royal road pass from Kakko + Lafrenière. pic.twitter.com/5IxZhmGpGk

— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) January 26, 2023

Alexis Lafreniere

Although Lafreniere profiles as a much weaker player than Jack Hughes (NJD) according to historical comparables, there are still some interesting parallels worth noting between the two 21-year-old former first-overall picks.

Hughes essentially looks *perfect* in the model, so he is a tricky comparable for anyone. Meanwhile, Lafreniere's value has been in a freefall since he was drafted in 2020—his star potential has plummeted from 62% to 20%. However, there remains plenty of reason for optimism with the young man. Here are some key stats from each player's first two NHL seasons:

	GP	Points	Pace	PP%	OZ%	IPP
Hughes	117	52	36	60.2	61.9	52.2
Lafreniere	135	52	32	23.7	55.2	64.1

As you can see, their point paces are essentially the same across their first two years in the league. But Hughes' totals were buoyed by receiving a big, steady dose of power-play time on top of consistent offensive zone starts. Lafreniere has more or less matched Hughes' production without those key supports while figuring in notably more points scored while he is on the ice. That is a big deal!

Remember how some fantasy managers were souring on Hughes by the end of his second NHL campaign? That sounds a lot like the discourse around Lafreniere right now.

A significant factor in their differing deployment is the role they each play on their respective teams: Hughes was counted on to be a top producer for the Devils right off the hop whereas Lafreniere joined a fairly strong Rangers team that already had a handful of established stars at the top of the lineup. As a result, he has had to fight for the ice time and opportunity that were more or less handed to Hughes right off the hop.

Hughes of course then jumped to a 94-point pace in Year Three while Lafreniere is still pushing for 40 in 2022-23—again, Lafreniere may not ever become a superstar-level player like Hughes. But Laf's shot rate and Corsi For have improved every year, and he has been given more and more offensive zone starts while maintaining a solid IPP. He now sits only 17 games away from his 200-game Breakout Threshold. Over his last ten games, he has received a pretty solid bump in powerplay time (26.2% → 42.2%). If that continues, and if his linemates can maintain their momentum and break out at the same time, Lafreniere could be primed to take a significant step forward at the end of this year moving into the playoffs.

Lafreniere's buy-low window, still firmly open for the moment, will close soon. He has been shooting at a lowly 7.1% this year, which is over 10% lower than his average over Years One and Two. I still see a star in the making here, and though his healthy hit rate (1.88/game) will likely decline as he maintains possession more consistently, he brings an added bonus in multicat formats that players like Hughes do not.

Kappo Kakko

Kakko increasingly looks like a Jesse Puljujarvi type: he drives play effectively but just doesn't score a whole lot despite playing with skilled linemates. Of the three members of The Kid Line, I'm most concerned about him—though heading into the year, I was the lowest on Chytil.

The data shows that Kakko's primary asset is his defensive play at even strength. He shuts down opposing teams, drives play, and draws penalties while facing a high quality of competition. His impact on the offensive side of things, however, leaves a lot to be desired. This snapshot has more or less stayed the same across his four years in the league. Unless he can find another gear, what you see here is what you will get from him. Not great for fantasy.

That said, Kakko has been scoring at a 50-point pace over his last 25 games—up from the sub-30 pace he was on to start the year. While that offensive boost is a great sign, I am concerned about his decreasing shot rate: he took two shots per game over his first 23 games in 2022-23 but that is down to 1.3 over his last 25. So he is scoring more but shooting less. I have said all along that Kakko will need to shoot more to have sustained NHL success; before crossing over to North America, he was always more of a goal scorer who averaged at least 0.5 goals per game, even in the Liiga, where he scored 22 in 45 games in his draft year to warrant being selected second overall behind Hughes in 2019.

It is possible Kakko has reinvented himself as more of a play-driving distributor, but color me sceptical that his fantasy ceiling can push too far beyond 60 points if he is not even averaging a couple shots per game. He hit his BT six games ago, and while he is on the larger end of the spectrum physically (6-2, 206 lbs), we should be seeing him take a step forward around now. That 50-point pace we have seen lately could represent the expected ~25% increase in production from a break out. But if he tops out as a 50–60-point player, he won't be too far above replacement-level in most leagues.

Kakko stocks are probably too low at this point to get a meaningful return. I am stubbornly holding him for now in a couple leagues, hoping that his pedigree will eventually yield a star-level player—or at least a long enough hot streak that someone will bite on him. But while I am bullish on Lafreniere, I am increasingly pessimistic about Kakko. The consistent play-driving is great for the team but makes him more of a real-life asset than a fantasy asset.

Filip Chytil

It looks like Chytil has become the shooter on this line. While both Lafreniere and Kakko saw their shot rates decrease in the second quarter, Chytil's rate doubled—from 1.4 to 2.8. While all three scored a similar number of goals (3-4) over the first 20-odd games, Chytil now has 11 in his last 23 games while the other two have combined for only eight over that stretch. That puts Chytil on a 60-point pace while Lafreniere and Kakko are still below 40.

Did anyone see this coming? Here are his point totals over the last four years: 22, 22, 23, 23. He has not received a noticeable boost in ice time either, still averaging between 13-14 minutes as he has his entire career. While he is on the upper range of average physically, like Kakko, he still qualifies for a 200-game Breakout Threshold. But he passed that mark near the beginning of last season and did not start seeing a boost in production until roughly game 270—much like Nico Hischier (NJD), who similarly bucked the BT theory (as ~20% of players do) and was trending sideways before breaking out part way through 2021-22 around his 250th game.

It would be fantastic for Chytil owners if this is his new normal. Hopefully he maintains his shot volume and starts earning a more prominent role in the Rangers' crowded top six, particularly with the man advantage.

Realistically, however, there are some pretty big red flags here. While Lafreniere's shooting percentage is way down this year, suggesting incoming positive regression, Chytil is in the opposite boat: he is currently shooting 8% higher than his career average, and his 1054 PDO suggests he has been a bit lucky thus far. Look for his production to slow as both of those marks come down to earth.

But how far will he regress and what can we expect from him moving forward? If we account for some regression by averaging out his goal rates from Q1 and Q2 in 2022-23, he would still be on pace for 30 goals. Add in roughly 25 assists, and we are looking at a 55-point player. That sounds about right in terms of a new normal for Chytil—at least for now. If he can earn another 2-3 minutes at even strength and weasel his way into some power play time, 65+ points is not out of the question. He also brings a few hits and blocks to the table, so he will not kill you in any one category—except PPP for now.

Chytil could be 2023-24's version of this year's Martin Necas (CAR).

Unlike Kakko, who excels defensively, Chytil's Wins Against Replacement value comes primarily from his offensive impact on the game. Although his finishing remains lower than we would like, it has spiked this year along with his overall WAR value. He has been sheltered again this year, and his average play-driving results suggest that he would struggle against higher quality competition. But it seems that the coaching staff in New York have finally figured out how to get the most out of their 2017 first-round pick.

Conclusions

While Chytil has the most value in redraft leagues right now, Lafreniere is still the one to own in keeper and dynasty formats. Look for him to take a big step forward in 2023-24; he is going to make those who sold low on him this year look foolish, much like 2021-22 Jack Hughes. Despite some incoming regression, Chytil looks like the second-most valuable member of this line longer term. Keep an eye on Kakko's shot rate; if it does not increase, and you can get a halfway decent return for him, I suggest you pull the trigger.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.