Ramblings: Thoughts on Chychrun Trade Destinations, Rielly Ends the Drought, Goalie Talk, and more … (Jan. 30)

Dobber

2023-01-30

The 15th annual Midseason Guide was released two weeks ago. Pick it up here! Second-half projections, prospects, free agents, trade block, advanced statistical analysis and more! This is probably the last ten days or so where this maintains relevance, so be sure to get it while it can still help.

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The trade deadline is March 3, which is sneaking up on us – just 32 days away. Four-and-a-half weeks!

Jakob Chychrun is one of the bigger names in trade discussions, and is probably the name we hear the most – it's been this way since the start of the season. The 24-year-old is just entering his prime and, for the second time in his career, is on a 60-point full-season pace. The problem is – he doesn't play full seasons. But that's just an aside. What we care about is what happens in the second half for Chychrun if and when he plays on a new team. Let's assume that the injury he suffered in the fall is it for this year – his annual injury is behind him so he'll be good to go for the final 30 games or so. He's signed for the next two seasons so this wouldn't be a rental, and that means he'll bring substantial value back.

The best fit for Chychrun is obviously Edmonton. But unless they part with Evan Bouchard, they don't have the assets to acquire him. And frankly I don't think the Oilers have the courage to pay that price, even though it really would make a great impact. But can you imagine how well Chychrun would do there? He'd be a top producing defenseman in the race with Cale Makar for each of his next two seasons – only losing because he misses 15 games each year!

Next up for me is Los Angeles. The Kings are flush with right-shot defensemen, so why not trade Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence for Chychrun? Would Chychrun partner with Drew Doughty on the top pairing and first PP unit? Or does he upgrade the second pairing and second PP unit alongside Sean Durzi? The Kings are an underrated threat, though admittedly they should be addressing their main weakness which is between the pipes. Chychrun's numbers would probably be the same in Los Angeles as they are in Arizona.

The worst thing to happen to fantasy owners would be for Chychrun to go where offense dies. That is to say – to the Islanders. But even still, he'll still be a 60-point (pace) player alongside right-shot Noah Dobson.

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Circling back to the Kings and their goaltending problems, time to check in on our old friend Cal Petersen. In 16 games in the AHL, Petersen is 9-6-1 with a 2.81 GAA and 0.911 SV%. Very similar numbers to Pheonix Copley's AHL output this season before he was called up.

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Morgan Rielly scored his first goal of the season. Yes, these are the January 30 Ramblings, you didn't accidentally click the October 30 link. Rielly's PPIPP of 32.0% is the lowest of his career by far, meaning that the Leafs' power play is scoring goals without using him. The forwards are making the plays happen on the man advantage and Rielly isn't often involved. This is hurting his production mightily – production that has topped 21 PPPts in three of his last five seasons (but this season will be lucky to reach 15). I honestly don't see that changing, and so I expect Rielly's overall scoring pace to just continue as is.

Michael Bunting had gone pointless in 10 of his last 12 games heading into Sunday, but he picked up a pair of points in the game against the Capitals. His new linemates, while Auston Matthews is sidelined, have been John Tavares and Mitch Marner. Despite the two points (one was on the PP), the line was a horrible 29.2 CF% – they gave up 17 chances while generating just seven.

It was Ilya Samsonov's third meeting against his old mates and he made it a good one, stopping 23 of 24. He is now 2-1-0 against the Caps.

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Also scoring his first of the season was Nicklas Backstrom, in what was his ninth game. The 35-year-old has been an effective player so far, and the coach has been mostly easing him in. Since returning from the two games he missed due to illness, his ice time has hovered around 14 minutes and he's centering the third line.

Darcy Kuemper got the hook in the middle of the second period after giving up four goals on 20 shots. Charlie Lindgren came in and stopped six of seven. Since January 21 (four games), the Capitals' goaltenders have posted three RBS (Really Bad Starts – starts with a SV% below 0.850).

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Linus Ullmark has lost three of his last six starts…but all three of his losses were Quality Starts. In those three losses he faced exactly 100 shots and saved 92 of them (0.920 SV%). So he's still doing his part. But as far as wins and losses go, Ullmark started the season 22-1-1, and is 3-3-0 since. No longer the lock for a win, for those playing DFS.

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Frederik Andersen had a terrible run between October 20 and October 28 (three games), but outside of that (and his injury, of course) he's actually had a fantastic statistical season.

Since October 29: 7-1-0, 2.13 GAA, 0.917 SV%, 66.7 QS%

Before October 19: 2-0-0, 1.00 GAA, 0.964 SV%, 100.0 QS%

Just three games of weak performance, otherwise fantastic. Pyotr who?
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Jordan Staal is seeing the lowest average TOI of his career, but has still managed 13 points in his last 18 games.

In the four games that Jaccob Slavin has been sidelined, Brent Burns (his defense partner) has four points. In this admittedly small sample size, Burns seems to be more productive alongside Jalen Chatfield.

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It's vacation time for NHL players, as there is just one game on the slate for Monday, three for Tuesday and then two games Wednesday before the All-Star Break hits.

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
JORDAN GREENWAY BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
JOONAS KORPISALO OTT
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DET Players
11.0 DAVID PERRON ALEX DEBRINCAT J.T. COMPHER
10.2 LUCAS RAYMOND DYLAN LARKIN ALEX DEBRINCAT
9.8 MICHAEL RASMUSSEN CHRISTIAN FISCHER ANDREW COPP

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