Looking Ahead: Beware of the Unbalanced Schedule

Andrew Santillo

2023-02-03

Happy All-Star Break all! I've checked my fantasy team three times today and I know can't be alone there. I've mentioned this in the past, but as much as we all can agree the All-Star Game and activities are more geared towards kids, I do think it's a great snapshot of who really mattered in a given season. Leave the hardest shot, speed skating, and actual game to kids and save the arguing over who did and did not make the All-Star Game to the adults.

For fantasy this is always a difficult time to plan out a lineup, but we'll dive into the schedule and trends before the break to help navigate your matchup. With that, let's dive in!

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Adam Henrique, C/LW, Anaheim Ducks (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 31% Fantrax, 15% Yahoo)
– We're looking for players here that are going to fit two criteria: lower rostered and play four times next week. Henrique fits both of those.

So I know it's easy to gloss over the name because anything Anaheim isn't exactly fantasy intuitive, but Henrique has put together a strong January coming into the break. He has nine points in his last eight games played and has a decent average for fantasy points when he's on the ice. With a good number of clubs in action two times or even less this upcoming week, being able to roster a player who will be in action four times is an advantage, which is why I think he makes for a great Immediate Fix.    

There is a steep drop from when Henrique's line is on the ice compared to when they're not, but that doesn't take away from how well they've played in the past few games. It's up to you if you'd want to roster Henrique past this week, but for the time being I think he can help a roster in need of forward starts next week. If you hold on longer maybe the Ducks making a trade and Henrique is sent to a contender? I don't see it happening, but this is also the club that pulled the trigger early last season on a Hampus Lindholm trade, so anything is possible.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Filip Chytil, C /RW, New York Rangers (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 42% Fantrax, 26% Yahoo)
– I'm excited about this one, everyone. Chytil really played well last postseason and that's what opened my eyes to his fantasy potential.

There's only a small handful of clubs that I'd consider rostering a third line center, but New York is one of them and I also think it's a third line that makes sense on most DFS slates. Chytil has been centering the Rangers' kid line of Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, which has been fantastic as of late. In the last three games played the line has five goals for and one against with 21 shots for, all best on the team. In rostering Chytil as well, he stays with this forward grouping on the power play, which again makes them great for DFS.

Chytil has been great recently with five points in his last three games played and I like both him and this Rangers team coming out of the break. I think that the top two lines miss having Andrew Copp on the right wing like they had last season past the deadline, but at least for the Chytil line, that trio has stayed together often this season. I think in leagues with larger rosters Chytil makes for an excellent addition to add and hold onto throughout the rest of the season.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Ryan Hartman, C/LW, Minnesota Wild (Rostered in 45% of ESPN leagues, 61% of Fantrax, 24% Yahoo)
– Hand up, I was searching for someone to fill the Odd-Man Out portion, but a healthy scratch of Hartman the other night gave us our answer.

No points in his last three games isn't great news, but he's also difficult to roster given that he was a healthy scratch last Thursday against Philadelphia. The reason being was that Hartman took a bad penalty that earned him the scratch off the roster, but it is troubling given his offense this season compared to last. In 2021-22, Hartman was an excellent player to roster in fantasy playing primarily on a line with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, an easy line to produce offense on.

Although the point production might be less frequent than last season, I do think Hartman still has value, particularly in DFS, as he's a player that I tend to one-off whenever Minnesota is on the slate for his shot blocks and occasional offense. For fantasy I think rostering him only makes sense for those in larger leagues where the waiver wire might be less prevalent with talent.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Jacob Trouba, D, New York Rangers (Rostered in 96% of ESPN leagues, 80% Fantrax, 82% Yahoo)
– We go from one Ranger as a Building Block to one as the Anchor. Trouba was a player I'd wanted to draft in my main fantasy league as well as trade for, but I've since backed off as of late.

Trouba has no points in his last eight games played which goes along with his shooting percentage that is now at a career low at 2.2%. In most fantasy leagues sure, he still holds value in the hits and blocked shots categories, but for scoring it's harder to start Trouba over other defensemen when you're in need of points. I do still think that his shots on goal will continue to be consistent, but Trouba might just be a player this season that only holds value in his peripheral game. For DFS he's a stay away on most nights for me, it's usually too expensive to roster Adam Fox if I want a Rangers defenseman and will usually gravitate towards K'Andre Miller rather than Trouba.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs through February 3rd to February 15th

NY Islanders – This week we're looking for clubs that play four times with great schedules, the first being the Islanders. They'll be on the road in Philadelphia and Montreal but will also be home next week against Vancouver. Narrative Street will be very busy in the first matchup following the Bo Horvat trade.

Minnesota
– The Wild will start the second half on the road against Arizona. That alone is just a step in the right direction following the break.

Edmonton
– Edmonton will be on the road next week, but their schedule isn't too bad. They'll see Detroit, Philadelphia, Ottawa, and Montreal, all clubs that they should have no trouble scoring against. As someone who is going up against Connor McDavid in fantasy this week, it doesn't worry me – it terrifies me.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Carolina
– Like those clubs that play frequently coming out of the All-Star break, our Leave Em's are those playing just once and are higher rostered clubs. The Hurricanes were one of the only clubs to be busy before the break, which was a big help, but next week they'll only be in action once. For a higher rostered club that has gone 9-0-1 in their last ten not having them on the schedule could be tough to manage.

Boston
– Like Carolina, just one game for the Bruins next week. There's plenty of leagues out there with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman on rosters, so you'll have to either do without them or take a trip to the waiver wire this weekend.

Buffalo
– The Buffalo top line brigade in DFS will just have to wait a bit as the Sabres will take the ice just once next Saturday against Calgary. I was chatting with my league earlier today, where we agree that these one-game-a-week clubs are going to be tough to navigate. How hard would it be for say a Carolina-Buffalo pick-up game? Just throwing it out there NHL.

Friday, February 3rd to Thursday, February 9th, 2023
Best Bets
NY Islanders 3.19 – Away PHI – Home SEA VAN
Minnesota 3.09 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK
Tampa Bay 3 – Away FLA – Home SJS COL
Vancouver 2.66 – Away NJD NYR NYI
Dallas 2.15 – Home ANA MIN
 
Steer Clear
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
Saturday, February 4th to Friday, February 10th, 2023
Best Bets
NY Islanders 3.19 – Away PHI – Home SEA VAN
Minnesota 3.09 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK
Anaheim 3.04 – Away DAL CHI – Home PIT
Tampa Bay 3 – Away FLA – Home SJS COL
NY Rangers 2.99 – Home CGY VAN SEA
 
Steer Clear
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
All-Star Break
Sunday, February 5th to Saturday, February 11th, 2023
Best Bets
NY Islanders 4.33 – Away PHI MTL – Home SEA VAN
Minnesota 4.25 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK NJD
Tampa Bay 3.91 – Away FLA DAL – Home SJS COL
NY Rangers 3.75 – Away CAR – Home CGY VAN SEA
Vancouver 3.66 – Away NJD NYR NYI DET
 
Steer Clear
Washington 0.86 – Away BOS
Buffalo 0.89 – Home CGY
Carolina 0.89 – Home NYR
Montreal 0.89 – Home NYI
Los Angeles 1 – Home PIT
Monday, February 6th to Sunday, February 12th, 2023
Best Bets
NY Islanders 4.33 – Away PHI MTL – Home SEA VAN
Minnesota 4.25 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK NJD
Edmonton 4.23 – Away DET PHI OTT MTL
Philadelphia 4.10 – Home NYI EDM NSH SEA
Anaheim 3.99 – Away DAL CHI VGK – Home PIT
 
Steer Clear
Buffalo 0.89 – Home cgy
Carolina 0.89 – Home NYR
Los Angeles 1 – Home PIT
Boston 1.05 – Home WSH
Ottawa 1.05 – Home EDM
Tuesday, February 7th to Monday, February 13th, 2023
Best Bets
Edmonton 4.23 – Away DET PHI OTT MTL
Minnesota 4.11 – Away DAL – Home VGK NJD FLA
Seattle 3.75 – Away NYI NJD NYR PHI
Detroit 3.74 – Away VAN – Home EDM CGY VAN
Vancouver 3.72 – Away NYR NYI DET – Home DET
 
Steer Clear
Carolina 0.89 – Home NYR
Boston 1.05 – Home WSH
St. Louis 1.26 – Home ARI
Winnipeg 1.26 – Home CHI
Buffalo 1.75 – Away LAK – Home CGY
Friday, February 8th to Tuesday, February 14th, 2023
Best Bets
Minnesota 4.11 – Away DAL – Home VGK NJD FLA
Florida 3.91 – Away MIN STL – Home STL COL
Seattle 3.90 – Away NJD NYR PHI WPG
Vancouver 3.72 – Away NYR NYI DET – Home DET
Chicago 3.35 – Away WPG MTL – Home ARI
 
Steer Clear
Buffalo 1.75 – Away LAK – Home CGY
Carolina 1.84 – Away WSH – Home NYR
Anaheim 1.95 – Away VGK – Home PIT
Boston 1.95 – Away DAL – Home WSH
Toronto 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ
Saturday, February 9th to Wednesday, February 15th, 2023
Best Bets
Edmonton 4.33 – Away PHI OTT MTL – Home DET
Chicago 4.30 – Away WPG MTL TOR – Home ARI
Minnesota 4.15 – Home VGK NJD FLA COL
Florida 3.91 – Away MIN STL – Home SJS COL
Seattle 3.90 – Away NJD NYR PHI WPG
 
Steer Clear
Carolina 1.84 – Away WSH – Home NYR
Dallas 1.89 – Home TBL BOS
Boston 1.95 – Away DAL – Home WSH
Vegas 2.06 – Away MIN – Home ANA
Los Angeles 2.15 – Home PHI BUF

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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