Looking Ahead: Beware of the Unbalanced Schedule
Andrew Santillo
2023-02-03
Happy All-Star Break all! I've checked my fantasy team three times today and I know can't be alone there. I've mentioned this in the past, but as much as we all can agree the All-Star Game and activities are more geared towards kids, I do think it's a great snapshot of who really mattered in a given season. Leave the hardest shot, speed skating, and actual game to kids and save the arguing over who did and did not make the All-Star Game to the adults.
For fantasy this is always a difficult time to plan out a lineup, but we'll dive into the schedule and trends before the break to help navigate your matchup. With that, let's dive in!
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Adam Henrique, C/LW, Anaheim Ducks (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 31% Fantrax, 15% Yahoo) – We're looking for players here that are going to fit two criteria: lower rostered and play four times next week. Henrique fits both of those.
So I know it's easy to gloss over the name because anything Anaheim isn't exactly fantasy intuitive, but Henrique has put together a strong January coming into the break. He has nine points in his last eight games played and has a decent average for fantasy points when he's on the ice. With a good number of clubs in action two times or even less this upcoming week, being able to roster a player who will be in action four times is an advantage, which is why I think he makes for a great Immediate Fix.
There is a steep drop from when Henrique's line is on the ice compared to when they're not, but that doesn't take away from how well they've played in the past few games. It's up to you if you'd want to roster Henrique past this week, but for the time being I think he can help a roster in need of forward starts next week. If you hold on longer maybe the Ducks making a trade and Henrique is sent to a contender? I don't see it happening, but this is also the club that pulled the trigger early last season on a Hampus Lindholm trade, so anything is possible.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Filip Chytil, C /RW, New York Rangers (Rostered in 14% of ESPN leagues, 42% Fantrax, 26% Yahoo) – I'm excited about this one, everyone. Chytil really played well last postseason and that's what opened my eyes to his fantasy potential.
There's only a small handful of clubs that I'd consider rostering a third line center, but New York is one of them and I also think it's a third line that makes sense on most DFS slates. Chytil has been centering the Rangers' kid line of Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, which has been fantastic as of late. In the last three games played the line has five goals for and one against with 21 shots for, all best on the team. In rostering Chytil as well, he stays with this forward grouping on the power play, which again makes them great for DFS.
Chytil has been great recently with five points in his last three games played and I like both him and this Rangers team coming out of the break. I think that the top two lines miss having Andrew Copp on the right wing like they had last season past the deadline, but at least for the Chytil line, that trio has stayed together often this season. I think in leagues with larger rosters Chytil makes for an excellent addition to add and hold onto throughout the rest of the season.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Ryan Hartman, C/LW, Minnesota Wild (Rostered in 45% of ESPN leagues, 61% of Fantrax, 24% Yahoo) – Hand up, I was searching for someone to fill the Odd-Man Out portion, but a healthy scratch of Hartman the other night gave us our answer.
No points in his last three games isn't great news, but he's also difficult to roster given that he was a healthy scratch last Thursday against Philadelphia. The reason being was that Hartman took a bad penalty that earned him the scratch off the roster, but it is troubling given his offense this season compared to last. In 2021-22, Hartman was an excellent player to roster in fantasy playing primarily on a line with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, an easy line to produce offense on.
Although the point production might be less frequent than last season, I do think Hartman still has value, particularly in DFS, as he's a player that I tend to one-off whenever Minnesota is on the slate for his shot blocks and occasional offense. For fantasy I think rostering him only makes sense for those in larger leagues where the waiver wire might be less prevalent with talent.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Jacob Trouba, D, New York Rangers (Rostered in 96% of ESPN leagues, 80% Fantrax, 82% Yahoo) – We go from one Ranger as a Building Block to one as the Anchor. Trouba was a player I'd wanted to draft in my main fantasy league as well as trade for, but I've since backed off as of late.
Trouba has no points in his last eight games played which goes along with his shooting percentage that is now at a career low at 2.2%. In most fantasy leagues sure, he still holds value in the hits and blocked shots categories, but for scoring it's harder to start Trouba over other defensemen when you're in need of points. I do still think that his shots on goal will continue to be consistent, but Trouba might just be a player this season that only holds value in his peripheral game. For DFS he's a stay away on most nights for me, it's usually too expensive to roster Adam Fox if I want a Rangers defenseman and will usually gravitate towards K'Andre Miller rather than Trouba.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through February 3rd to February 15th
NY Islanders – This week we're looking for clubs that play four times with great schedules, the first being the Islanders. They'll be on the road in Philadelphia and Montreal but will also be home next week against Vancouver. Narrative Street will be very busy in the first matchup following the Bo Horvat trade.
Minnesota – The Wild will start the second half on the road against Arizona. That alone is just a step in the right direction following the break.
Edmonton – Edmonton will be on the road next week, but their schedule isn't too bad. They'll see Detroit, Philadelphia, Ottawa, and Montreal, all clubs that they should have no trouble scoring against. As someone who is going up against Connor McDavid in fantasy this week, it doesn't worry me – it terrifies me.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Carolina – Like those clubs that play frequently coming out of the All-Star break, our Leave Em's are those playing just once and are higher rostered clubs. The Hurricanes were one of the only clubs to be busy before the break, which was a big help, but next week they'll only be in action once. For a higher rostered club that has gone 9-0-1 in their last ten not having them on the schedule could be tough to manage.
Boston – Like Carolina, just one game for the Bruins next week. There's plenty of leagues out there with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman on rosters, so you'll have to either do without them or take a trip to the waiver wire this weekend.
Buffalo – The Buffalo top line brigade in DFS will just have to wait a bit as the Sabres will take the ice just once next Saturday against Calgary. I was chatting with my league earlier today, where we agree that these one-game-a-week clubs are going to be tough to navigate. How hard would it be for say a Carolina-Buffalo pick-up game? Just throwing it out there NHL.
Friday, February 3rd to Thursday, February 9th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 3.19 – Away PHI – Home SEA VAN |
Minnesota 3.09 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK |
Tampa Bay 3 – Away FLA – Home SJS COL |
Vancouver 2.66 – Away NJD NYR NYI |
Dallas 2.15 – Home ANA MIN |
Steer Clear |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
Saturday, February 4th to Friday, February 10th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 3.19 – Away PHI – Home SEA VAN |
Minnesota 3.09 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK |
Anaheim 3.04 – Away DAL CHI – Home PIT |
Tampa Bay 3 – Away FLA – Home SJS COL |
NY Rangers 2.99 – Home CGY VAN SEA |
Steer Clear |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
All-Star Break |
Sunday, February 5th to Saturday, February 11th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 4.33 – Away PHI MTL – Home SEA VAN |
Minnesota 4.25 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK NJD |
Tampa Bay 3.91 – Away FLA DAL – Home SJS COL |
NY Rangers 3.75 – Away CAR – Home CGY VAN SEA |
Vancouver 3.66 – Away NJD NYR NYI DET |
Steer Clear |
Washington 0.86 – Away BOS |
Buffalo 0.89 – Home CGY |
Carolina 0.89 – Home NYR |
Montreal 0.89 – Home NYI |
Los Angeles 1 – Home PIT |
Monday, February 6th to Sunday, February 12th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
NY Islanders 4.33 – Away PHI MTL – Home SEA VAN |
Minnesota 4.25 – Away ARI DAL – Home VGK NJD |
Edmonton 4.23 – Away DET PHI OTT MTL |
Philadelphia 4.10 – Home NYI EDM NSH SEA |
Anaheim 3.99 – Away DAL CHI VGK – Home PIT |
Steer Clear |
Buffalo 0.89 – Home cgy |
Carolina 0.89 – Home NYR |
Los Angeles 1 – Home PIT |
Boston 1.05 – Home WSH |
Ottawa 1.05 – Home EDM |
Tuesday, February 7th to Monday, February 13th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.23 – Away DET PHI OTT MTL |
Minnesota 4.11 – Away DAL – Home VGK NJD FLA |
Seattle 3.75 – Away NYI NJD NYR PHI |
Detroit 3.74 – Away VAN – Home EDM CGY VAN |
Vancouver 3.72 – Away NYR NYI DET – Home DET |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 0.89 – Home NYR |
Boston 1.05 – Home WSH |
St. Louis 1.26 – Home ARI |
Winnipeg 1.26 – Home CHI |
Buffalo 1.75 – Away LAK – Home CGY |
Friday, February 8th to Tuesday, February 14th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Minnesota 4.11 – Away DAL – Home VGK NJD FLA |
Florida 3.91 – Away MIN STL – Home STL COL |
Seattle 3.90 – Away NJD NYR PHI WPG |
Vancouver 3.72 – Away NYR NYI DET – Home DET |
Chicago 3.35 – Away WPG MTL – Home ARI |
Steer Clear |
Buffalo 1.75 – Away LAK – Home CGY |
Carolina 1.84 – Away WSH – Home NYR |
Anaheim 1.95 – Away VGK – Home PIT |
Boston 1.95 – Away DAL – Home WSH |
Toronto 2 – Away CBJ – Home CBJ |
Saturday, February 9th to Wednesday, February 15th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.33 – Away PHI OTT MTL – Home DET |
Chicago 4.30 – Away WPG MTL TOR – Home ARI |
Minnesota 4.15 – Home VGK NJD FLA COL |
Florida 3.91 – Away MIN STL – Home SJS COL |
Seattle 3.90 – Away NJD NYR PHI WPG |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 1.84 – Away WSH – Home NYR |
Dallas 1.89 – Home TBL BOS |
Boston 1.95 – Away DAL – Home WSH |
Vegas 2.06 – Away MIN – Home ANA |
Los Angeles 2.15 – Home PHI BUF |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.