Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Being on pause for the All-Star Break provides a great opportunity to take stock on which young players and prospects have a chance to contribute to their teams down the stretch. Though it has more of an overall focus (ie. older players too), this is the exact focus of Dobber's Midseason Guide—a ton of thoughtfully considered advice that will help you either load up for a playoff run or sell off rentals and turn your sights to next year.

Nearly half (23) of the top 50 rookies by total points on Frozen Tools have a cold streak snowflake next to their name. By contrast, only two—Jake Sanderson (OTT) and Noah Cates (PHI)—are currently riding hot streaks. This looks like a group of young players collectively hitting the "rookie wall" roughly fifty games into their careers. Keep in mind that prospects might play anywhere from 34 (NCAA) to 68 games (CHL) a year maximum before making the jump to the majors. And that is playing much less physically demanding hockey.

The rookie wall is a real thing and suggests that it may be more prudent as a general strategy in fantasy to lean more on veterans than rookies at the tail end of the year. Players who have been in the league for several years generally have the type of professional-level habits that allow them to maintain their level of play over what could be 100 games in a single year if you count the playoffs. That said, there are a variety of reasons—finally earning a call up, returning from an injury, gaining opportunity via an injury to others, junior seasons ending—that can position a young player to make their mark over the last 30-odd games of the campaign.

Let's take a look at a few young players—generally defined for the purposes of this column as still approaching their 200- or 400-game Breakout Threshold—who would make savvy targets over the All-Star break.

Adam Boqvist (CBJ)

I hesitate to include Boqvist here because he is a 100% Certified Band-Aid Boy at this point, but his upside and opportunity are both undeniable. I would love to read an insightful post-mortem on the Blue Jackets' season because I just cannot understand why they have struggled so dramatically given the talent on their roster. They are currently tied for last place with the Chicago Blackhawks, well-known for their ongoing shamelessly obvious tank job, and Columbus is even making shoddy teams like the Sharks, Coyotes, and Ducks look good right now.

The short answer is definitely injuries. They have lost the most games due to injury of any team in the league in 2022-23.

CBJ (329)

45 Danforth
40 Voráček
38 Werenski
37 Bean
33 Blankenburg
26 Boqvist
21 Chinakhov
15 Korpisalo Laine
11 Jenner Merzļikins Meyer
7 Tarasov
6 Robinson
3 Nyquist Sillinger
2 Kuraly Roslovic
1 Gavrikov Gudbranson Johnson

Excluded: Luoto

— NHLInjuryViz (@NHLInjuryViz) February 1, 2023

Even still, this is a team headlined by Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine that boasts a wealth of promising young players like Jack Roslovic, Kent Johnson, Cole Sillinger, Kirill Marchenko and Yegor Chinakhov. They should be better than this.

I am continuing to invest heavily in the Blue Jackets in fantasy, despite being burned in more than half of my leagues by Elvis Merzlikins being literally the worst goaltender this year, because this is still firmly a team on the rise. Prospects like David Jiricek, Denton Mateychuk, and Stanislav Svozil should help significantly boost their blue line over the next couple years; top goalie prospect Daniil Tarasov should help push or overtake Elvis for starts as soon as 2023-24; and most of those aforementioned forwards still need at least a year or two to fully hit their stride.

Back to Boqvist. With Werenski, Jake Bean, and even Nick Blankenburg out of commission, and Jiricek still playing in the AHL for now, Boqvist has the best opportunity he may ever have to take the reins of the top power play unit and put up some solid numbers. Of course, however, he is currently injured. Again. The latest update suggests it is not serious this time: it is apparently a day-to-day "upper body" injury. So he will likely be back with the team on February 10 when they play the Maple Leafs.

Boqvist commanded over 60% of the available PP time and scored seven points (all assists) over a ten-game stretch before going down with his latest injury. While his overall impact remains limited, as indicated by his paltry 35% Wins Above Replacement metric, he continues to excel by nearly all offensive measures, including Finishing, Goals/60, and Primary Assists/60. When he is playing, he is scoring.

If Boqvist can stay healthy for the majority of the remaining 30 or so games and improve his PP proficiency—currently a glaring, somewhat baffling weakness—he could provide your team with a sneaky production boost from the back end. My sense is that most poolies have exasperatedly moved on from him by now because of all the injuries and his unclear role/future with Columbus, so he will likely come cheap in trades or free off the wire. Worth a swing!

Owen Tippett (PHI)

Is it just me or does Tippett, 23, kind of look like a top-line player? He is 30 games away from his Breakout Threshold, has posted solid play-driving numbers while facing the fourth-highest Quality of Competition (QoC) amongst Philadelphia forwards, and is currently on a 50-point pace on the year. Those factors, combined with a decently high IPP (58%), low PDO (984), and favourable linemates and deployment make me think Tippett would be a solid investment in fantasy.

The Flyers have had a rough year but are only six points behind the Penguins for the last Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. That is not an insurmountable distance. Tippett would play a key role in a potential Philly comeback. He has been lining up lately next to James van Riemsdyk and a rejuvenated Morgan Frost, though Coach Tortarella seemingly put his lines in a blender last game against Winnipeg: Tippett played part of the game on a struggling line with Kevin Hayes and Scott Laughton (28.6% Corsi For), and then Noah Cates replaced Laughton and they drove play (62.5% CF) and scored a goal.

An odd trend with Tippett's production and deployment is that his shot rate improved slightly from Quarter One to Quarter Two (2.4 → 2.6) despite the fact that he lost over a minute of PP time and another minute at evens. It is a great sign for his confidence that he is shooting so often because he has always been a sniper; over three OHL seasons (starting with his draft year), he scored 113 goals over 165 games (0.68 goals per game). He then put up about half-a-goal per game over ~60 AHL games but just has not yet translated that success to the NHL. Right now he is on a 25-goal pace. I expect him to join the 30-goal club in 2023-24 after what we have seen from him this year.

While he remains a defensive liability—and therefore is likely better suited to an offensive, top-six role—Tippett's contributions on offence are growing steadily. His WAR% remains low for the moment but that is a 3-year weighted average; all of his metrics are pointed up. He provides excellent additional value in multi-cat formats with his 1.72 hits per game. Tippett is a young player on a (theoretically) improving team set to add Sean Couturier, Bobby Brink, and Cutter Gauthier. I feel reluctant to endorse any Philly player too enthusiastically these days, especially with Tortorella at the helm, but I am buying on Tippett if the price is right.

Evan Bouchard (EDM)

Bouchard continues to post the best play-driving numbers on the Oilers, and it is not even close. This is a familiar story: he has driven play in a depth role for three years now and is clearly ready to feature more prominently. But for whatever reason—ie. Tyson Barrie—Edmonton's coaching staff continues to curtail his minutes and opportunity. While his PP share has increased slightly (~5%), his overall Time on Ice (TOI) is two minutes lower this year than last.

I have been convinced for years now that Bouchard will uproot Barrie on PP1 and become a dominant point-per-game defender. Now he is 23 and his deployment and results still have not changed. Barrie is on a 56-point pace (22 PPP), which is solid, but you could be a cardboard cut-out of a hockey player and still put up numbers like that if you gobbled up 65% of the available PP time on a team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Bouchard has put up only four points since Christmas (15 games), so his value is in the gutter right now relatively speaking. But at The Journey, you know what that means! Now is a great time to spitball an offer to his owner in your league. Bouchard still has pedigree, name value, and opportunity, so a legitimate offer will still have to reflect those aspects—and Barrie is still signed for another year after this—but I still see a high-end fantasy asset here. If something happens in the back half of 2022-23 to flip his deployment with Barrie's, Bouchard has more potential than almost any other underachieving NHL defender to push a point per game with solid hits (1.3/game) and high-end PPP totals.

Honourable Mentions

Eeli Tolvanen (SEA), 23, has 10 points (eight goals) in his last 15 games since joining Seattle. That is a 44-goal pace over a full season, which is probably not sustainable yet for a young player averaging less than 14 minutes a game, but Tolvanen also throws about a hit and a half per game and would likely help most fantasy teams down the stretch. It will be interesting to watch his deployment moving forward.

I have been guilty of overvaluing Jakub Vrana (DET) in fantasy over the last year or two. While he has looked like a top-line player and produced at a high rate over limited sample sizes, he has not yet produced more than 25 goals or 52 points in a campaign. In my mind, I have been considering him a 30-goal, 70-point player. This year has been a write-off for him, from a strictly fantasy perspective, with him enrolling in the Player Assistance Program and then being sent down (through waivers!) to the AHL on what has become a lengthy conditioning stint. His AHL totals this year (seven points in 14 games) do not look great but six of those points have come in his last six games. Vrana is heating up and, like Bouchard, there are not many other underachieving options out there with the potential to suddenly hit a point-per-game. If he earns back his spot in Detroit's top six, watch out.

Bowen Byram (COL) is another young player flying under the radar in fantasy who has the potential to come in and boost fantasy teams after the All-Star Break. He continues to miss long chunks of time, presumably due to post-concussion symptoms, and as an Avs fan I am starting to wonder if the 21-year-old even has a future in the NHL. Concussions are no joke, and there comes a point for some pro athletes where they unfortunately need to weigh their drive to play the sport against their long-term quality of life. That said, Byram's talent has never been in doubt. He has reportedly been working hard during the break, skating every day with fellow injured teammate Valeri Nichushkin.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.