Capped: Analyzing Trade Bait in Meier and Chychrun

Jamie Molloy

2023-02-09

Now that we've gotten through the NHL All-Star break, hockey is back and I couldn't be happier. At this point in the season we start hearing more and more trade rumors surrounding potential rental players, what teams are looking in terms of the direction they'll approach at the deadline and whether they're buyers or sellers, and the movement of young players to acquire more well-proven players. This trade deadline is poised to be stellar, there seems to be a lot of variety when it comes to what types of players are available. Seems like there should be a lot of role players on the market, along with some higher end talents. This week I plan on touching on a few of the players that I expect to see in a new uniform post trade deadline day. I won't be predicting where I think they'll go, but I will touch on how a new environment may help the player succeed, or how it may hinder them.

#1) Timo Meier – RW – San Jose Sharks

Contract: $6M – RFA at the end of the season (no extension in place)
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 99%, ESPN – 99.4%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
5230212321801092041.2%19:59
4461531623831176923641.8%16:55

With Meier being poised to break his career high in goals – he scored 35 last year, went into Thursday night's game with 30, and has 30 games to go – it's safe to say when Meier gets a new contract this summer, he will be getting a pretty significant raise in pay. From a fantasy perspective, Meier covers a lot of value in a lot of different areas. He is a goal scorer, he will produce on the power play, he plays a bunch on average each night as well. His offensive numbers have began growing the moment he went from playing less than 17 minutes a night to playing over 19 minutes through the last two seasons. All of that, mixed with the fact that he is averaging over four shots per game, along with over two hits per game. While he makes $6 million this season, that is very good value for what he brings to the table on a team like San Jose who is weak as a unit. For reference, Meier has scored 18.63% of the Sharks' goals this season. San Jose is the second-worst team in the Pacific division currently and don't look to be a playoff team this year. Meier may very well be on the move to help jump-start some sort of rebuild, look for contending teams to offer top prospects for the Swiss native, along with draft capital. Wherever he ends up getting traded to (assuming he does get dealt that is), I figure he will be able to produce well given that he should go to a system with better support around him. We could very well see Timo Meier being on the receiving end of a $9 million contract.

#2) Jakob Chychrun – D – Arizona Coyotes

Contract: $4.6M – 3 Years remaining
Roster Percentages: Fantrax – 94%, ESPN – 89.4%

GamesGoalsAssistsShotsPowerplayShorthandedHitsBlocksFaceoff %TOI
357201117043550%23:05
372601098824404855530%21:03


Chychrun is currently on pace to have a career season for the Coyotes: through an 82-game season he would wind up finishing with 63 points. At this moment, his pace through a full season is at its highest in his career (assuming he didn't play another game the year). The Coyotes always seem to find their way to the basement of the NHL standings and while they have a few individuals who are performing, it always feels like Chychrun is going to be traded. We've heard rumors for the last couple of years about a potential trade involving him. When it comes to a real-life perspective, Chychrun is a solid two-way defenseman who can play up and down the lineup and on either the penalty kill, or the powerplay. When it comes to a fantasy perspective, you have a player who averages more than a hit and block per game, over three shots per game, a goal scoring threat from the backend (0.2 goals per game), while averaging over 23 minutes per game (has averaged this for the previous two seasons as well as this one). Given the limited offensive support that Chychrun has seen through his career (this is his seventh season), I think we can expect some sort of uptick in his offensive production if he gets dealt to a new team with a healthier offensive system. Arizona is the fourth worst goal scoring team this season with 131 scored through 51 games (2.56 goals per game).

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