Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a keep five league where a GM's likely keepers as of now are Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Timo Meier and either Evander Kane or Dougie Hamilton. The GM has a chance to get Nikita Kucherov, but to do so would cost Hamilton, Martin Necas, Sam Reinhart, and Kane. The GM's team also sits 5th in the ten team league, and the top three teams are out of reach, although anything could happen in the playoffs. Would it be worthwhile for the GM to do the deal, likely costing them this season and two of its potential keepers?

I'll cut to the chase. This is a trade I make 100 times out of 100. When only 50 players are kept, yes it does leave a lot to the draft to determine which teams will succeed; however, when a team is not likely to win, their focus must shift to assembling the best five keepers they can. Kucherov is a top-ten asset in a 50-team league. What's more – he'd only cost one of the team's envisioned keepers, as although Kane and Hamilton are up for consideration for the last keeper spot, it was one or the other – not both. Out goes one keeper spot, and in comes another, with a vast upgrade.

The other thing I like about this trade is even though the GM would be parting with a lot of nice assets, they're not huge difference makers like Kucherov. By making the trade the team is probably giving the other team better depth to try and win this season, at the cost of being able to keep Kucherov and gain an advantage going forward. Short term pain, long term gain.

If possible though, I'd try to make the deal be for Kane, as I see a world in which Hamilton may be a keeper next season over perhaps Meier. Hamilton is showing he's an elite talent and is also strong in multicat. Yes, so is Meier; but Meier seems to have maxed out at the point-per-game level, albeit with a lot of SOG and HIT; however, those are covered, respectively, by Connor and Tkachuk. I'm not saying Hamilton is a must keep; but if he maintains his red hot pace over the rest of 2022-23, he might just be too good not to keep, especially given that the team wouldn't otherwise be keeping any non-forwards.

Topic #2 – Who's the better own in a points-only keeper: Filip Forsberg or Drake Batherson?

Given how long Forsberg has been in the NHL, one would think he's a lot older than Batherson; however, the age gap is only four years. Still, Forsberg has played enough such that we have a large sample size from which to draw, whereas with Batherson the jury is still out.

Both have warts. In the case of Forsberg, his far and away best season just happened to come when he was poised to be a UFA. Lo-and-behold after he inked a new deal his scoring rate has come back to its usual level of 65-70 points. As for Batherson, there's still the looming issue of the 2018 Canada World Junior Championships incident for which he's not been implicated but also not cleared. If he's found to have participated, the punishment could be long and severe.

With Forsberg, we've seen his talent on full display, so he's tough to write off. If one was to look at this from an objective standpoint, he's had many years of his prime to do what he did last season, yet never did until his next payday was on the line. Sure enough, he's reverted to his old self, making it less likely – given his age and his fat wallet – that he'll rise to that same level again.

With Batherson, he has flashes of strong play for several games, then disappears for a few, with the result being a player who seems like he's poised to score in the 70s. His PP scoring is off the charts; but his IPP on the PP is not in the stratosphere, making possible he could continue to produce top tier man advantage numbers in future seasons. He's also just now hit his breakout threshold, so it's realistic to think he has more in him than what we've seen. What I also like to see is his SOG rate is set to climb again this season despite his ice time per game being slightly down, although his SH% has dropped, suggesting he might be prioritizing firing pucks on net and not doing so selectively, with the net result being a wash in terms of scoring.

Something else to consider is trade value. Forsberg's value is arguably lower than it was before he exploded last season, as poolies are smart enough to connect the dots and realize what he did is likely not to be repeated, whereas prior to 2021-22 Forsberg always had a lure to him of the potential to go nuts like he did in 2022-23. Even though he's back to his usual self, his net value might be even lower as it's less realistic to see him rising again. As for Batherson, he's on an up and coming team; however, the 2018 issue looms large. Anyone who has tried to trade Batherson to someone in the know has likely gotten a less than fair – on paper – offer in return due to concern that the 2018 investigation will implicate him and lead to a severe punishment.

If I had both and could only keep one, it'd probably be Batherson due to his age and breakout threshold plus his team likely set to improve in the coming years. Forsberg, on the other hand, is on a team that has gone back to not being a major offensive power and him to a player who looks poised to score in the 70-point range. I'd favor Batherson, hoping somehow he doesn't face punishment for 2018, or his punishment is not too severe.

On the other hand, If I didn't own either one and was going to trade for one or the other, it might be Forsberg, just because I feel his value is so low now in general, and in comparison to Batherson's. If I can get just the 70-point version of Forsberg on the cheap, versus having to pay for a built-in breakout for Batherson, I might opt for Forsberg.

Topic #3 – In a 14 team points only dynasty with rosters of 6F, 3D, 3G, 3 Bench, a team has the following players on its current roster:

F: Jason Robertson, Kyle Connor, Tim Stutzle, Patrick Kane, Matt Boldy, David Perron, Alex Newhook, Marco Rossi

D: Cale Makar, Evan Bouchard, Brandt Clarke

G: Igor Shesterkin, Thatcher Demko, Jesper Wallstedt

The team has an offer to trade its Stutzle for a first round pick that has a 50/50 shot of being first overall, and, if not first overall, would be second overall. Does that justify moving Stutzle?

My short answer is yes. I realize that only 156 players are owned in total in this league; but that doesn't change the fact it's a 14-team league. Having a chance to get a player in Connor Bedard, who's perhaps poised to be on a par with Connor McDavid, is such a huge factor in a league this size. Yes, all teams will be stacked; however, when you think about it, each team should have only four of the top 50 players in fantasy. This team already has Robertson, Makar, Connor and Shesterkin who fit the bill. Adding Bedard could put them in a great spot to be able to contend.

What if they don't get the first overall pick? Yes, Stutzle is excelling; but he's done what he's done this season without Josh Norris around. Although Stutzle did post 31 points in his last 27 games in 2021-22 despite Norris being firmly in the picture, I do wonder if having both of them in the line-up won't cause each to play below what's their true best. Although the drop off from Bedard to the second overall pick will be as steep as a cliff, in most drafts the second overall pick is nothing to sneeze at. Heck – if that ends up being the fate of this team, I'd probably try to package that pick plus Kane to get a young asset, seizing upon draft hype plus Kane probably being on a much better team by then.

Is it a no-lose situation? No; but I think when you're only a coin flip away from possibly landing someone who could become one of the most prized fantasy assets for the next decade plus, you owe it to yourself to risk it for the biscuit, especially since as I noted the downside is not terrible.

Topic #4 – In a points-only keeper cap league, where a player's cap hit for the next season is his cap hit from the previous season, a GM can keep Travis Konecny, Brandon Hagel, or Matt Boldy. Who should they choose?

Given the cap rules, Hagel would be keepable at a bargain price for two more seasons, Boldy at just one, while Konecny is inked at an amount well higher than Hagel for the next three seasons at more than, then less than, Konecny, before his UFA deal's cap hit would kick in. Unsurprisingly, there is no clear-cut answer based just on cap hit.

One thing to always consider is the other players on the team, including where their salaries are headed or are already set to be. Assuming all could fit within the cap for the team, then I'd say Hagel is not the keep. He's doing very well, although his situation is very reminiscent to that of Ondrej Palat, who seemed to be poised for great success but over time was deemphasized, causing his numbers to suffer accordingly. Even if Hagel finds a way to keep producing at ES, a spot on PP1 is far from a lock. That's in stark contrast to Boldy and Konecny, for whom PP1 time is all but assured.

With Konecny, the concern was until this season he had a tendency of not being able to carry a line, but also fading into the background if playing alongside top tier talent. But for 2022-23, he's experiencing major success. Perhaps it's chemistry with Kevin Hayes, or it's just that for the first time he has the spotlight squarely on him, whereas before he could – and did – fade into the background? Still though, we can't be sure this is a new normal for him. What he does have going for him is every season of his career with an IPP over 71%, and a PP IPP over the past three seasons of 65% or better. Results aside, that's impressive, and makes it less likely that he'll fall back to his pervious levels.

Boldy's issue is he tends not to be deployed on a line with Kirill Kaprizov. It turns out that when he played almost no shifts with Kaprizov in Q2 he did nearly as well as he did in Q1 when his did skate with Kaprizov at times. Of course they're together on PP1, with Boldy holding his own with the man advantage. The big issue though is by the time the Wild are emerging from their cap nightmare due to buying out Zach Parise and Ryan Suter, Boldy will be earning a whole lot more than he is now. Once Konecny re-signs in a few years, the difference in cap hit between Boldy and Konecny might be small, even compared to next year.

In the end, I like Boldy's youth; however, I don't like his deployment at ES and the Wild not being able to bring in high priced talent for another couple of seasons. Although Konecny is only now fulfilling his promise, I love his IPPs and his stable salary for three seasons (per league rules) and I think he's turned a corner, making him my pick of the three.

Topic #5 – In a 12 team, points only league with 18 player rosters and where five players (3F, 1D, 1G) are kept, a team has been offered Auston Matthews, Dougie Hamilton and Max Domi for Matthew Tkachuk, Morgan Rielly and Zach Hyman. Is it a trade worth making?

First off, the deal is essentially Matthews and Hamilton for the other three, as in no universe will Domi be a keeper. But I'm not sure Hyman will be too if 18 players are owned. Sure, he looks superb right now; however, here's a fun fact – since Connor McDavid came into the league not a single Oiler winger has played 70+ games while scoring at a 0.85 point-pace or better. It's not like Hyman doesn't have a body of work with which to compare. Yes, Hyman is shooting more than ever; but basically he was playing the part of Evander Kane while Kane was out. Once Kane gets into his groove I feel Hyman will come back to earth in a major way. Yes, he's better than Domi by a lot; but either Hyman won't be a keeper or if he is kept he'd disappoint come next season.

As for Hamilton versus Rielly, it's two players who have had a past of up and down numbers. I feel like Hamilton has found a home in New Jersey and should still be the top option for blueline offense while the team around him continues to improve. Rielly has had some great seasons; but every time we seem ready to anoint him elite, he reverts. I feel like if he was going to become a consistently great d-man he'd have done so by now. In points-only I like that Hamilton's sole purpose is to generate blueline offense, while Rielly is an true #1 rearguard who prioritizes defense as much as offense. That's fine in real hockey, but this is fantasy hockey, so I'm favoring Hamilton.

Matthews and Tkachuk is interesting. Tkachuk is showing that last season's success in Calgary was perhaps more due to him than Johnny Gaudreau, and that he looks to be a player who can be at or even above the 100-point mark for many seasons to come. In Matthews we're talking about a player who, until this season, had seen his scoring pace climb every season of his career. Yes, he has looked merely great this season; but he's still just below a 100-point-pace despite a very low – for him – SH%. Plus, he was heating up, as after starting 2022-23 with 21 points in 22 games, he went off for 32 in 25 contests, for a 105 point pace, despite his low SH%. Thachuk is an outstanding player; however, Matthews is something special and, of the two, is the only one I can see putting up 1.5 points per game if everything goes right. I've got Matthews in a squeaker over Thachuk.

For those keeping score, the players coming over in the trade are "better" in two of three cases, while the third players are unlikely to be keepers. Overall, the trade seems like one to make.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team H2H keeper, 3C, 3RW, 3LW, 6D, 2G, 5B league with skater categories G, A, +/-, SOG, PPP, HIT, BLK, PIM, who's the better own: Jack Hughes or Jason Robertson?

It goes without saying that both are prized owns and should be cornerstone keepers for many seasons to come. It says in the thread that Hughes has winger eligibility; however, for purposes of answering this question I'll assume Hughes will become center only eligible by next season, as he should.

First off, although Hughes is two years younger than Robertson, he's already hit his 200-game breakout threshold, while Robertson is only now approaching his. In theory Robertson might be poised to start 2023-24 even better than he's doing now. Still, both are likely far from their primes, and should have room to improve throughout their 20s.

Robertson being a winger – and he's not losing that status, unlike Hughes – is a plus, as is that, unlike Hughes, Robertson is not a complete drag on the HIT, BLK and PIM categories, which comprise three of the eight skater cats. Robertson wouldn't need to score as much as Hughes to have the same or even higher value. In fact, I'd argue that if all Robertson was able to do was score 80-85% of the points that Hughes does, their values would be comparable.

Still, as I've said in previous columns, Hughes has a chance to finish this season with a scoring rate of 1.2+ and a SOG rate of 4.5+. The last center to do that by age 21 was Mario Lemieux. You know who else did it? Some guy named Wayne Gretzky. Hughes has a chance to be in the finest of fine company, suggesting he might be poised to be a superstar, rather than just a merely elite player.

As for Robertson, let's keep in mind he's shined this season despite ice times lower than someone of his talent normally receives. Need proof? He's 11th in PPPts despite only having received the 57th most PP minutes of any forward. Just one other forward – William Nylander – is in the top 20 in scoring despite taking the ice for less time per game than Robertson. The good news is Robertson's ice times are ticking upward not just season to season but within 2022-23, as his first quarter ice time numbers were a much lower 2:34 on the PP and 17:41 overall, meaning he's up by over a minute overall and 30 seconds on the PP since Q1. That is a very positive trend, and should help Robertson pad his numbers.

I think this is extremely close, and I could see an argument being made that it would depend on the depth of one's fantasy team at their respective positions. But all things are otherwise equal, what I can't get past is how poor Hughes is in the "banger" categories and how Robertson is a winger, where there is less superstar talent, not to mention how Robertson's ice times are ticking upward, making Robertson the one I'd favor ever so slightly.

Topic #7 – What's wrong with Jack Eichel? Is the fact that he's below preseason projections due to him, or the injuries to his supporting cast, or both? What should someone do if they own him in a keeper league?

As someone who drafted Eichel in 2021 in hopes of cashing in big time this season, I can feel the pain of fellow owners. No question he's disappointed. But is there realistic hope he can rise back to the 90+ point player Vegas – and poolies – expected him to be?

In terms of blaming his lack of supporting cast in Vegas, there might be some credence to that argument, as although the Sabres were downright awful as a team when Eichel scored at a 94 point pace in 2019-20 and an 87 point page in 2018-19, his linemates were pretty good, as in both seasons for the majority of his shifts he was alongside Sam Reinhart, plus, in one, Victor Olofsson, and in the other, Jeff Skinner. Not superstars, but certainly skilled players. The fact he's been unable to skate with the best of the best on Vegas for nearly his entire tenure there does help justify his lack of scoring.

Also, Eichel is still elite when it comes to IPPs. His IPP on the PP is 81.8%, which is really great. He can't do it all himself on the PP though, so his PPPts are lagging. As for his overall IPP, it's over 70%, which in and of itself is very reassuring, especially considering his IPP in his best seasons was 72.2% and 73.2%, meaning he's not far from where he was at his peak. His SOG rate is a bit lower; however, he's compensated by having a slightly higher SH% overall. There are also no issues with his secondary assist percentage.

What does seem to be hurting Eichel is his ice time, as it's under 19:00 overall and 3:00 on the PP. This is someone who once took the ice for 22:06 overall and 3:51 on the PP, so we're talking about a big drop. He also has "only" a 55.4% offensive zone starting percentage, which is down from the 63.1% high for his career. Right there could be the difference between five-to-10 points in scoring rate.

What does all this tell us? Eichel seemingly is at or near the talent level he was prior to getting hurt. But with a lower ice times and fewer shifts in the offensive zone, not to mention a lack of supporting cast, his ceiling is definitely going to be lower. I still think he rises to hit the point per game level before the end of 2022-23, and I'd label him a likely buy low for 2023-24, when his owners will be frustrated enough to move him for what likely will be less than his true value.

************

Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.