This year's projections come out a little later than last year, but that does mean this time around that it comes just in time for the trade deadline action, and that a few of the trades and extensions have already been sorted out. Before we dive into some of the notes, a quick foreword on my system.  

My projections are done as an algorithm that I have set up as part of my cap league skater and goalie rankings. It would be impossible to project the cap league values of these players without an input, and as a result I have gotten to the point of refining this system where the output does a respectable job of projecting the cap hit of a player on their next contract at any moment in time. I have not found it at all important to be able to project the term on these future contracts, as those are generally easier to foresee, in addition to them having a negligible impact on the future fantasy value of a player. As a result, I only show the projected cap hit below. If you take a look at a few of the players though, it's nearly a given that the contracts given to the higher profile players will be longer term, while the depth and fringe lineup players will be shorter. In the middle, the players in their late 20s and early 30s get the term, while the older and younger players have to settle for the shorter-term deals.

This year it doesn't feel as though many of the contracts are being over-projected. The system is completely numbers based, so there is risk with goalies that have a shorter track record, or players that bring along off-ice baggage who are harder to quantify. The other issue is that when injuries play a part. Cole Caufield's number at this point looks reasonable, but as soon as he doesn't play the second-half of the season, then in the system the smaller sample size is noted, and it may fluctuate.

Players who missed large chunks, or all of the season, including Connor Brown, Scott Perunovich, and Frederik Andersen become some of the toughest to manage, as the small sample sizes wreak havoc on the formulas. Usually these players have to take discounts both on annual cap hit and on term.

When Patrice Bergeron took a large discount on a bonus-laden contract, he was one of the farthest off from my model last year. It looks as though he may be one of the farthest off again this year, assuming he doesn't retire. Some factors like team discounts are also impossible to account for, but overall these are the exceptions, not the rule. Bergeron may take a discount similar to last year, but with the Bruins dealing with overages, the Bruins may have to keep the bonuses out of the equation this time.

At the top of the list, we see the expected names, but to me those aren't as interesting as Patrick Kane, who I find to be the hardest one to project this year. Kane has a cup, has a large career earnings number, and will likely be looking for a new home outside of Chicago. He's a native of Buffalo, but it sounded as though the New York Rangers was his preferred destination at the trade deadline. Regardless, it means that he is unlikely taking a hometown discount anywhere, though it's not impossible. He could reasonably since for any AAV between $2.0 million to $9.5 million and I wouldn't be at all surprised. For the rest, I usually find a deviation of over half-a-million to be surprising.

Anyone not on the list below is projected for a league-minimum cap hit of $775K next season.

If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean. Comments are always appreciated.