Ramblings: O’Reilly Traded to Leafs in 3-Way Deal, Could Kane Be Dealt As Well? Also Nelson, Gustavsson, and more (Feb 18)

Ian Gooding

2023-02-18

The Toronto Maple Leafs are loading up for their Stanley Cup run (or just for getting past the first round), acquiring Ryan O'Reilly and Noel Acciari from the St. Louis Blues for Mikhail Abramov, Adam Gaudette, a first-round pick in 2023, a third-round pick in 2023 (from Ottawa) and a second-round pick in 2024. St. Louis is retaining 50% of O'Reilly's salary, while Minnesota is taking another 25% of O'Reilly's salary and receiving a 2025 fourth-round pick for their trouble. Right-wing prospect Josh Pillar also moves from Minnesota to Toronto.

I'll have a Fantasy Take on this trade shortly. One thing at a time please.

I can't help but think that Brock Nelson is one of the most underrated players in fantasy. Nelson scored a pair of goals and added an assist in the Islanders' 5-4 win over Pittsburgh. Nelson now has a goal in four consecutive games and is currently riding a 12-game point streak in which he has 16 points. Nelson is also firing the puck a lot lately, averaging five shots per game over his last four games. If you thought the Bo Horvat trade would cut into Nelson's value, it has actually had no effect or has even done the opposite. If anything, the trade has spread out the scoring for an offensively-challenged team with both Nelson and Horvat appearing on the first-unit power play.

Returning to being underrated, Nelson and not Mathew Barzal is the Islanders' leader in points (55) as well as goals (25). The two tied for the team lead in points (59) last season, with Nelson's points much more highly concentrated in goals (37 for Nelson compared to 15 for Barzal). Barzal has been widely regarded as the Islanders' top scoring option, but maybe it's time to think of Nelson that way instead.

Nelson was originally credited with a hat trick, but the goal was later awarded to Nelson's linemate Zach Parise, who also finished with three points. Did Parise touch the puck, or was Bryan Rust the last player to touch the puck? You be the judge.

Parise, by the way, entered this game with just a single point in his last 11 games and just two points (both goals) in his previous six games. A move to Nelson's line might help with that production.

In a losing cause for the Penguins, Rickard Rakell scored a pair of goals with a plus-3 and eight shots. He has now scored goals in back-to-back games.

We can speculate and even dream about where Patrick Kane will be playing hockey next season or even after the trade deadline. But for now, he's a Chicago Blackhawk, while they try to figure out how to trade a player with a $10.5 million cap hit. (Simple: The Hawks retain 50% of his salary in a trade, while they involve a third team in said deal that would take on another 25% of his salary. All of this is the maximum allowable in terms of retaining salary. Kane's acquiring team would only need to take on $2.625 of cap hit. The O'Reilly trade is the template.)

Kane scored a pair of goals on Friday, snapping a four-game dry spell without a point. Kane also entered this game with just two goals in his last 13 games and just nine goals on the season, so fantasy teams have been expecting more given where he was drafted (ADP 41.9 in Yahoo). Unfortunately, Kane is having his worst season on many levels. I think a major reason for that is the downgrade in the quality of linemates he has this season compared to previous seasons, a situation that could improve with a trade.

It's time to give Filip Gustavsson his due. Gustavsson stopped 29 of 30 shots in regulation and overtime as well as three of four shots in the shootout as the Wild edged the Stars 2-1. Gustavsson has now posted four quality starts in a row, allowing just seven goals over those four games. Among goalies with at least 20 games, only Linus Ullmark has a better goals-against average and save percentage than Gustavsson (2.12 GAA, .928 SV%).

Sure, let's talk about this. Although Gustavsson wasn't expected to be a major factor in the Wild crease because of the presence of Marc-Andre Fleury, Gustavsson has outplayed the veteran netminder by a fairly significant margin and might even be in the process of wrestling the starting job away from MAF. In fact, the pedigreed Fleury has a 2.90 GAA and .906 SV% over the past two seasons – fairly pedestrian numbers. Gustavsson has started four of the past six games for the Wild while replacing Fleury in another after the latter allowed five goals over two periods. Yes, this is a goaltending controversy, and it's probably time to downgrade Fleury.

In the least surprising news of the day, Connor McDavid recorded points 100 and 101 (both assists) on Friday. McDavid has now finished with at least 100 points in six of the past seven seasons. Simply put: he's in a class of his own.

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Kailer Yamamoto returned to the Oilers' lineup on Friday, and they managed to add him without waiving Jesse Puljujarvi. Instead, Dylan Holloway and Vincent Desharnais were sent down to the AHL. Puljujarvi assisted on Derek Ryan's goal, but his icetime has dipped to under 11 minutes per game since the new year. Pool Party is an arbitration-eligible RFA this offseason, but I think the Oilers will move on from him by then.

With another goal on Friday, Mika Zibanejad has goals in six consecutive games. He also has 11 points over the past six games. The Rangers offense was starting to catch fire even before acquiring Vladimir Tarasenko. I know I’ve said this before, but I really like this team from a fantasy perspective the rest of the way.

Adrian Kempe scored another goal on Friday, extending his goal streak to four games. He has eight goals and 19 shots over that four-game span.  if I had an honorable mention for the Top 100 Roto Rankings, Kempe would definitely be in there. The man they call Juice is closing in on his second consecutive season with 30+ goals and 200+ shots. He can be incredibly streaky but if he stays hot, maybe we'll see him in there next month.

Viktor Arvidsson scored a pair of goals for the Kings, giving him three goals and five points over his last two games.

Kevin Fiala scored a goal and added two assists, giving him 11 points over his past eight games.

Blake Lizotte has also been heating up. With a goal and an assist on Friday, Lizotte has seven points over his last eight games. Lizotte also took a season-high seven shots. He has been boosted by being on the Fiala line at evens, but he still doesn't see any power-play time. If you're thinking about adding Lizotte, keep in mind that he doesn't have a power-play point all season.

Pheonix Copley was ejected for this series, and we didn't even get a goalie fight out of it. But at least we got to see Kings Twitter roast Ducks Twitter (the number is 17, if you’re curious).

Because Copley was ejected, Jonathan Quick was able to earn his first win since (scrolls down) December 1. The last time he registered a quality start was on December 23. No wonder the Kings have been relying on career minor leaguer Copley so much.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

4 Comments

  1. joseph carola 2023-02-18 at 09:05

    It doesn’t look like Barzal and Horvat is a good fit. All these years we complained they couldn’t find anyone to play with Barzal. Maybe it’s time we realize that Barzal is the problem

    • audiopile 2023-02-18 at 11:36

      We were saying the same thing about Horvat in Vancouver. He never got quality wingers, always the dregs. Maybe give it some more time.

  2. Striker 2023-02-18 at 10:35

    Minor correction.

    Parise only had 1 point, I own both Nelson and Parise in 1 H2H league, long-time Nelson owner & have protected him several times, dropped him once only to trade to get him back post-draft, so not missing that. Haha. Lee had 3 but he moved up to Horvat’s line for the game against PIT last night.

    • Ian Gooding 2023-02-18 at 11:03

      Whoops, I was looking at Lee and thinking Parise for some reason. I make mistakes when I’m rushed.

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