Fantasy Take: Orlov, Hathaway Dealt To Boston

Michael Clifford

2023-02-23

It was almost a shock at how fast things moved. As of Thursday afternoon, the Washington Capitals were on a slide with two wins in their previous seven games, but Alex Ovechkin was returning and they were just two points out of a playoff position. Then just after 5 PM ET, Pierre LeBrun tweeted that defenceman Dmitry Orlov was being held out of their game against Anaheim for trade-related reasons. Less than an hour later, we get this:

It was quite the whiplash but indeed, the 31-year-old blue liner is now a Boston Bruin, along with forward Garnet Hathaway.

Minnesota got involved in the trade for additional salary retention, and got a fifth-round pick for their troubles. This was the full deal:

Let's look at it.

What the Bruins get

To touch quickly on Hathaway, he is a name familiar to those in banger leagues as he has 1276 hits in 432 career games. He was getting 12 minutes a night in Washington and will likely be in the 11-13 range when he's in Boston's lineup. If Hathaway can go straight to the third line with Charlie Coyle and Taylor Hall, there could be decent scoring upside here, too. Boston's mid-to-late March schedule isn't tough, either, and have a four-game week including road games in Buffalo and Chicago. Those in banger/PIM leagues should keep him in mind if he's not already rostered. It's a pretty good bottom-6 move for Beantown.

Orlov is the obvious key to this deal. Hampus Lindholm has certainly been great for Boston since heading there last season and Charlie McAvoy is truly elite, but having one more heavy-minute guy in the top-4 seemed a priority, and Orlov is the guy. He has averaged 34 points every 82 games over his last five season, skating 21 minutes or more often.

The question is the fit because Boston does have a lot of left-shot defencemen like Lindholm, Derek Forbort, and Matt Grzelcyk. However, Orlov has played the right side before and is capable of doing so again. He could easily slot as the RD2 behind McAvoy and move Brandon Carlo to the third pair. Regardless, this type of acquisition is not made with the intention of moving Orlov to a bottom-pair 16-minute role unless something goes horribly wrong. It is worth pointing out how much Lindholm's points rate improved (over 50%) going from Anaheim to Boston, though Anaheim's poor play is a difference.

As for Orlov's skills, he has many. His Frozen Tools Usage Chart, we see he's more often in the defensive zone getting tough matchups but still thriving:

He can he used in all situations, and generally succeed, which is probably why Boston paid such a handsome price for him. A great team just added a defenceman who might be on the top pair on half the rosters in the league.

As for why Orlov drives the play, it's his ability to move the puck in a variety of ways. Corey Sznajder hand-tracks hundreds of games and looks for things like zone entries/exits, assists on scoring chances, defending the blue line, and dozens of more stats. Orlov does struggle on defence at times, but there is not much doubt as his ability to skate the puck or find his teammates for offensive chances:

This is his best season of late in some regards, but he's generally been very good in these areas anyway. Boston hasn't really struggled to score but Orlov is not a liability in his own end and can help get the puck going the other way in a hurry. That is valuable and will help their forwards at even strength. Hopefully, their skill will rub off on him and his point totals rise from here. I would expect a small uptick and not be surprised at a much bigger one.

Guys like Forbort and Jakub Zboril are going to be seeing less/no ice time moving forward. McAvoy, Orlov, Lindholm, Grzelcyk, and Carlo look like the top-5 (not in that order, necessarily) with a rotation for the sixth.

Hathaway will help the bottom-6 defence and the penalty kill – as if Boston needed it – and Orlov will help them generate more at evens, and gives them another PP option if they ever desire/require. It might help Hathaway in fantasy but Orlov stands to be a big beneficiary if he can get a Lindholm-esque bump.

What Washington Gets

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Craig Smith had really seen his role diminish with Boston, either skating 10 minutes a night or being a healthy scratch. While Washington lost Anthony Mantha to the IR, they still have a half-dozen wingers that are likely to all play more than Smith. Maybe he earns 11-12 minutes a night, but seeing what happened to Mantha when he got there, combined with Hathaway having played nearly 12:30 a night, tells me 12 minutes for Smith seems a good bet. More than that is gravy. That could help the peripheral numbers a bit but his shots per minute have cratered this season, so he needs more than an extra minute or two each game to recoup any fantasy value.

If all goes well, Smith could end up pushing guys like Sonny Milano or Conor Sheary for ice time at even strength but third-line, second PP minutes seems like his max on this roster… unless more shakeups come along.

Trading Orlov should open more minutes for Martin Fehervary, who should be able to step into Orlov's role/minutes in a year or two, and may get some more PP time now. Fehervary is likely gone already in banger leagues but it might be worth checking waiver wires if you're in need of hits/blocks. An extra 90 seconds per night could go a long way.

Who This Helps

Martin Fehervary

Garnet Hathaway

Charlie Coyle

Matt Grzelcyk

Who This Hurts

Derek Forbort

Jakub Zboril

Nicklas Backstrom

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