Looking Ahead: Help From Bertuzzi And Duclair; No Help From Campbell Or Washington
Andrew Santillo
2023-02-24
Welcome back and we are right in the middle of a very interesting stretch of the fantasy season as well as the NHL. For fantasy we're getting right down to the wire where your league probably has the top two or three teams guaranteed to make playoffs, some fringe seeing behind that, and then you're looking at those three or four clubs battling it out for two spots. We need every win we can get down the stretch as well as a little bit of help, let's look to win this week and move on into the next.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Tyler Bertuzzi, LW/RW, Detroit Red Wings (Rostered in 44% of ESPN leagues, 68% Fantrax, 25% Yahoo) – I wrote up Tyler Bertuzzi as an Anchor not long ago because of health issues as well as slower offense production. However, I think for the short term here he provides us an opportunity to take advantage of a skater playing very well and the Red Wings upcoming schedule.
Detroit is the only club in the league that will play five times next week, and off the top of my head I think they will be only the second or third club to do so this season. Philadelphia had a five-game week around the Christmas Break but it's Philly, there's not much there to take advantage of fantasy-wise for this season. Detroit though does give us some options, one of which is Bertuzzi on the top line.
Bertuzzi has played well as of late, with five points in his last three games he's been great at helping distribute the offense. In the last seven games played he leads all Detroit skaters in assists with five skating on a top line with Dylan Larkin and David Perron. Five games in a week is difficult for any club but looking at this schedule I also think that Detroit is going into really good scoring opportunities and great matchups. The Red Wings have a road back-to-back against an Ottawa club to start the week that is starting two backup goaltenders, followed by a home game against Seattle who has been shaky to say the least in net, with Martin Jones sporting the worst goals saved above average the last month at -6.53. I think Bertuzzi makes for a really intriguing addition moving into next week with roster numbers still relatively low on all fantasy sites. For DFS purposes his line is fully correlated even strength and power play so I'd imagine they will be higher rostered in the coming days.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Anthony Duclair, RW, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 6% of ESPN leagues, 43% Fantrax, 21% Yahoo) – As I was making my way down Waiver Wire Ave. this morning I took a look at Florida which lead to good news regarding Anthony Duclair.
The overall health of the Panthers is something that I've been cautious about going back to last season so it's a relief to see that they're getting a very good scoring winger back to the lineup in Duclair. This also presents a really good opportunity here for fantasy, specifically clubs that might have a roster spot that they've been floating around. Coach Paul Maurice announced on Wednesday that Duclair should be ready to go for Friday's game against the Sabres and I think making the claim now may help tremendously down the road.
Duclair has missed the entire season thus far with an Achilles injury and while that injury can scare away fantasy players there is reason to believe that he can return to form. Last season in 74 games played he had 31 goals, 58 points, and was an integral part of a Florida club that won the President's Trophy. Although I can't see the Panthers slotting him in on the top six in his first games back, I still think he can provide scoring for a lineup. If you want to wait a game or so and see how he looks coming back from injury that's fine but just be cautious that if he has a good game or string of good games, that he'll likely be off the waivers before you know it.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
JT Miller, C/LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks (Rostered in 98% of ESPN leagues, 100% of Fantrax, 99% Yahoo) – I went back and forth here on a couple different players for this week's Odd-Man but landed on JT Miller. Look, I know he's been a punching bag for narratives around this Canucks club, but this is and was a player that does have value. He's just not on the Canucks line that you'd want to be in order to produce.
Hand up, I'm still rostering Miller in my main league and for the hits and blocked shots as well as the offense, which admittedly has come more sparingly than it did last season. The Canucks shifted their lines every which way before head coach Bruce Boudreau was ultimately let go, often leaving Miller on lines that made it difficult to produce which is where he finds himself now. The Canucks' top line with Elias Pettersson and newly acquired Anthony Beauvillier has been great accounting for six goals as a pair. Miller's line and wingers, just three goals with a struggling Brock Boeser and Connor Garland.
The on-ice defense hasn't been Miller's strong suit this season as he's tied 10th for most goals allowed whole on the ice and his even strength shooting is much lower than it was last season. Maybe this is the case of player that has been unlucky more times than not this season? I still think he has some value here to a fantasy roster this season, it's going forward that things may get a little dicey. I can't see him being a player that your league is looking to draft even in later rounds and in cap leagues that cap hit from $5.25 million to $8 million will come with a decision to be made. For now though he's an odd-man out just given the Vancouver depth, or lack thereof, but might be someone you'd want on your bench in fantasy.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Jack Campbell, G, Edmonton Oilers (Rostered in 63% of ESPN leagues, 86% Fantrax, 39774% Yahoo) – Long time coming here, but I think we're well past due for calling out Jack Campbell as a fantasy Anchor this season.
Did I understand why Edmonton gave Campbell his current contract? Honestly no, not much playoff experience to speak of and only a couple good months with Toronto last season. Goaltending was (and is) a concern for this club now but turning to Campbell over the offseason led to him getting drafted in most fantasy leagues and navigating his starts has been difficult. The tandem between both him and Stuart Skinner makes rostering Campbell problematic as one never can be sure who is starting day-to-day and can leave a lineup bare with him riding the bench, essentially burning a fantasy roster spot.
In Campbell's last three starts he has allowed four or more goals in each, as well as letting a three-goal lead slip away against Colorado last Sunday. Overall team defense isn't great for the Oilers so there's not much to keep the pressure off of the goaltending which just makes it tougher for Campbell to put up good fantasy numbers leading to a .887 save percentage on the season. If you're rostering him I'd suggest possibly platooning the goaltending roster spot for a bit week-to-week rather than settling on Campbell to be named the starter whenever Edmonton is on the slate.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through February 24th to March 8th
Dallas – The Stars have been fluttering a bit lately but they're a Love 'Em moving forward. They'll see Vancouver, Arizona, and Chicago at home next week, a great spot for one of the best powerplays in the NHL.
Chicago – Well, it is Chicago, but they're next three games is against clubs who around their level near the bottom of the standings with games coming up against San Jose, Anaheim, and Arizona. These games will either all be sloppy 6-5 entertaining finishes, or 2-1 games where everything happens in the first six minutes. There's no in between here.
Detroit – There's some Red Wings buzz post All-Star break and there's something to that for a group that's gone 7-3-0 in their last ten games. As we highlighted on the Immediate Fix, Detroit has a light and busy schedule next week, perfect for a Love 'Em.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Philadelphia – Only two games on the schedule next week for the Flyers, not that the Flyers are really a club everyone is rushing out to roster or play but for now they're a Leave 'Em.
Washington – While I was writing this I happened to check out their salary cap situation for this season and next…then the Dimitri Orlov trade happened. The Capitals are now a Leave 'Em for the foreseeable future with only two games on the schedule and possibly as we move towards the end of the season. There's a roadmap to a playoff without Alexander Ovechkin and maybe a player or two that we're familiar seeing come playoff time that plays for our next Leave 'Em
Pittsburgh – The Penguins have a brutal schedule upcoming on the road against Nashville, Tampa, and Florida. The club that has found itself on the outside looking in needs to figure out roles for their depth players and quickly.
Friday, February 24th to Thursday, March 2nd, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 4.30 – Away VGK CHI – Home VAN ARI |
Chicago 4.23 – Away SJS ANA ARI – Home DAL |
Montreal 4.10 – Away PHI SJS LAK – Home OTT |
NY Rangers 4.09 – Away WSH PHI – Home LAK OTT |
Colorado 4.05 – Away WPG – Home CGY VGK NJD |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 2.06 – Away COL – Home PHI |
Vegas 2.69 – Away COL – Home DAL CAR |
Winnipeg 2.78 – Home COL NYI LAK |
NY Islanders 2.80 – Away WPG MIN – Home LAK |
Vancouver 2.85 – Away DAL – Home BOS MIN |
Saturday, February 25th to Friday, March 3rd, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Anaheim 4.33 – Away CAR – Home CHI WSH MTL |
Dallas 4.30 – Away VGK CHI – Home VAN ARI |
Chicago 4.23 – Away SJS ANA ARI – Home DAL |
Columbus 4.15 – Away MIN BUF – Home EDM SEA |
NY Rangers 4.09 – Away WSH PHI – Home LAK OTT |
Steer Clear |
Florida 1.85 – Away TBL – Home NSH |
NY Islanders 1.85 – Away WPG MIN |
Philadelphia 1.94 – Away NJD – Home NYR |
Winnipeg 2.79 – Away EDM – Home NYI LAK |
Minnesota 2.80 – Away VAN – Home CBJ NYI |
Sunday, February 26th to Saturday, March 4th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 4.29 – Away CHI – Home VAN ARI COL |
Nashville 4.18 – Away ARI FLA CHI – Home PIT |
Chicago 4.18 – Away ANA ARI – Home DAL NSH |
Buffalo 4.16 – Away BOS – Home WSH CBJ PHI |
Columbus 4.10 – Away MIN BUF OTT – Home SEA |
Steer Clear |
New Jersey 1.81 – Away COL VGK |
Philadelphia 1.94 – Away BUF – Home NYR |
Carolina 2.09 – Away VGK ARI |
Florida 2.85 – Away TBL – Home NSH PIT |
Vegas 2.85 – Away COL – Home CAR NJD |
Monday, February 27th to Sunday, March 5th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Dallas 4.29 – Away CHI – Home VAN ARI COL |
Colorado 4.26 – Away DAL – Home VGK NJD SEA |
Chicago 4.18 – Away ANA ARI – Home DAL NSH |
Arizona 4.16 – Away DAL – Home CHI CAR NJD |
Vegas 4.11 – Away COL – Home CAR NJD MTL |
Steer Clear |
NY Islanders 2.01 – Away MIN – Home DET |
Washington 2.09 – Away ANA SJS |
Minnesota 2.56 – Away VAN CGY – Home NYI |
Toronto 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Pittsburgh 2.66 – Away NSH TBL FLA |
Tuesday, February 28th to Monday, March 6th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
San Jose 4.26 – Away WPG – Home MTL STL WSH |
Los Angeles 4.26 – Away WPG – Home MTL STL WSH |
Dallas 4.24 – Away CHI – Home ARI COL CGY |
Chicago 4.24 – Away ARI – Home DAL NSH OTT |
Buffalo 4.16 – Away BOS – Home CBJ PHI EDM |
Steer Clear |
NY Islanders 2.01 – Away MIN – Home DET |
Anaheim 2.31 – Home WSH MTL |
Minnesota 2.56 – Away VAN CGY – Home NYI |
Toronto 2.61 – Away EDM CGY VAN |
Pittsburgh 2.66 – Away NSH TBL FLA |
Friday, March 1st to Tuesday, March 7th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.37 – Away DAL – Home NJD SEA SJS |
Dallas 4.24 – Away CHI – Home ARI COL CGY |
Carolina 4.18 – Away VGK ARI MTL – Home TBL |
Vegas 4.16 – Away FLA – Home CAR NJD MTL |
Edmonton 4.10 – Away WPG BUF – Home TOR WPG |
Steer Clear |
Boston 2.05 – Home BUF NYR |
NY Islanders 2.26 – Home DET BUF |
Minnesota 2.56 – Away VAN CGY – Home CGY |
Pittsburgh 2.61 – Away TBL FLA – Home CBJ |
Nashville 2.90 – Away FLA CHI VAN |
Saturday, March 2nd to Wednesday, March 8th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Detroit 4.23 – Away NYI PHI – Home SEA CHI |
Vancouver 4.20 – Home MIN TOR NSH ANA |
Winnipeg 4.15 – Away EDM – Home EDM SJS MIN |
Chicago 4.10 – Away DET – Home DAL NSH OTT |
Seattle 3.96 – Away DET CBJ COL – Home ANA |
Steer Clear |
Washington 1.90 – Away SJS LAK |
NY Rangers 1.96 – Away BOS – Home OTT |
Boston 2.05 – Home BUF NYR |
NY Islander 2.26 – DET BUF |
Toronto 2.71 – Away CGY VAN NJD |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.