The Toronto Maple Leafs and their blue line, for whatever reason, is a spot of debate for hockey fans of all stripes, at least online. Kyle Dubas has altered his approach to defencemen and the deadline a bit and gone heavy on depth. Part of this depth is now Erik Gustafsson, acquired from Washington for defenceman Rasmus Sandin:

Adding a first round pick here is a good get for the Leafs in real terms. It gives them one this year they can leverage in another trade, even if it's guaranteed a non-lottery pick. Let's break it down.

What the Caps get

Rasmus Sandin was the cost of the player and the pick, and he leaves Toronto after 145 total games, including the postseason, following his 29^th overall selection in 2018. It seemed Timothy Liljegren had passed him in the team's eyes and cheap, expendable depth with the draft pick attached was enough to make the decision. His four goals and 20 points in 52 games, with 1.1 shots per game, hasn't made him relevant in fantasy leagues outside of some dynasty/cap formats, though he's better in multi-cat leagues because the peripherals (59 blocks/113 hits) are solid.

Sandin's lack of shooting is not a usage problem, either. He is in the 22^nd percentile for shot rate among regular defencemen at 5-on-5, and that's just bad. However, Toronto does not really want their defencemen shooting as a matter of philosophy, and it's something that started a few years ago. Washington does not have that same problem, so there could be a chance of a shooting uptick from Sandin. It would help his fantasy value in a number of areas.

The issue here is whether he gets top power-play minutes. There isn't much left on the Washington roster until Carlson returns, so Sandin could conceivably get some PP1 time. We likely won't know until he suits up but this could be a big, immediate boost for a guy that could have good peripherals to add to the potential production. It could hurt someone like Trevor van Riemsdyk or Martin Fehervary and hopes of top PP time until (if?) Carlson returns. It does mean the bottom guys like Matt Irwin and Alexander Alexeyev are rotating in and out.  

What the Leafs get

Gustafsson, like Sandin, is a left-shot defenceman that has filled in admirably since Washington lost John Carlson to injury. He has logged 21:43 a night with 21 points in 26 games since Christmas, eating a lot of top power-play time for the team. It will be interesting to see if he can get any top time with Toronto. The power play is very good with Rielly as it is but it does give the team an option if they ever want to use it. They have seen Gustafsson do it in Chicago and now Washington.

The key for Gustafsson's fantasy success is some consistency in his role. Over the years, he has seen as little as 13:22 a game (when he played a handful in Montreal), had a few seasons in the mid-teens, with three seasons of at least 20 minutes. He has had good per-minute production rates at 5-on-5 in several seasons (including this one), but a fluctuating role, including power-play time, is always the issue. It may not matter for the regular season, though, and that's why fantasy owners need to pay attention here. There could be 10 different Leafs defencemen dress over the balance of the season, and Gustafsson may not be more than a streamer if he's in the rotation. Assuming Morgan Rielly, Jake McCabe, Mark Giordano, and Timothy Liljegren play when the lineup matters, it leaves two spots for a number of rearguards like TJ Brodie, Gustafsson, Conor Timmins, Justin Holl, and the newly-acquired Luke Schenn. There are no ice-time guarantees but it's the bottom of the depth that will get hurt the most.

Back in the Chicago days, Gustafsson was a very good offensive defenceman who had questionable defensive tendencies. Too many shots and goals against, though the offence often helped balance it. This year in Washington has been arguably his best, and if his play translates to his new team, it could be a nice boost on offence without much (or any) sacrifice on defence. If he regresses defensively for one reason or another, there are other options that can step into the lineup.

Who This Helps

Rasmus Sandin

Who This Hurts

Erik Gustafsson

Matt Irwin

TJ Brodie

Timothy Liljegren

Trevor van Riemsdyk