Fantasy Take: Ekholm to Oilers, Barrie to Predators

Ian Gooding

2023-02-28

The Edmonton Oilers have acquired defenseman Mattias Ekholm and a sixth-round pick from the Nashville Predators for Tyson Barrie, Reid Schaefer, a first-round pick, and a fourth-round pick.

The Oilers receive: Ekholm, the shutdown defenseman that they badly needed in order to be a more legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Ekholm is an effective two-way defenseman whose point production has declined over the last two seasons. He might be the centerpiece of this deal, but ironically, he's not the most fantasy-relevant player of the trade.

The Predators receive: Barrie, who brings more offense and power-play ability to the Predators than Ekholm, but he is a downgrade defensively. Barrie is on pace for a near-60-point season and is also set to surpass his career high of 30 power-play points. Schaefer is an Oilers' first-round pick (32nd overall) from the 2022 draft.

Frozen Tools Compare Players – Ekholm/Barrie

Fantasy players impacted:

Barrie loses a prime opportunity as the quarterback of the league's top power play (31.9 PP%). In other words, a power play that scores at will with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman. In fact, McDavid (54 PPP), Draisaitl (44 PPP), and Nugent-Hopkins (39 PPP) are the three-leading power-play producers in the league. In contrast, Nashville is the league's 25th-ranked power play (18.7 PP%) with nowhere near the firepower of the Oilers. Even if Barrie is paired alongside Roman Josi on the first-unit power play, Filip Forsberg (when healthy), Matt Duchene, and Mikael Granlund are a major step below McDavid, Draisaitl, and Co. A 3F-2D PP1 isn’t out of the question for the Predators, who because of injuries and trades aren't exactly overflowing with top-6 forwards. Barrie has 28 PPP, more than Predators’ leader Josi in that category (23 PPP). No other Predator has more than 13 PPP.

From the Edmonton side fantasy-wise, this is less about Ekholm and more about the players around him. Evan Bouchard, who has seen time on the first-unit power play in the past, should move into Barrie's spot and cash in. His scoring has taken a hit from last season (61 GP, 21 PTS, 5 PPP), but you need to add him immediately if he's somehow available in your league (50% Yahoo), as his scoring could skyrocket. If Bouchard doesn't make the most of this plum opportunity, Philip Broberg or Darnell Nurse might even be given a go on that lethal Oilers power play. Ekholm has been a second-unit power-play option throughout his time in Nashville, but that's not why the Oilers are bringing him in.

Don't underrate the impact that Ekholm's arrival and Barrie's departure will have on Oilers goaltending. Free agent signing Jack Campbell has not been what the Oilers have hoped, but a more defensive defenseman in front of him in Ekholm might make life easier for him. Don't expect either Campbell or Stuart Skinner to be lights out after this trade, but their numbers may be a little easier to stomach.  

Players this helps, in order:

Bouchard

Campbell/Skinner

Josi

Broberg

Nurse

Ekholm

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Players this hurts, in order:

Barrie

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Big drop

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McDavid

Draisaitl

Nugent-Hopkins

Hyman

Discuss this trade in this thread on the Forum.

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