Fantasy Take: Puljujärvi Sent To Carolina

Michael Clifford

2023-02-28

One of the long-rumoured players to be traded was in fact dealt on Tuesday afternoon as the Jesse Puljujärvi era in Edmonton has finally come to an end. After many ups and downs, 51 goals, 317 games, and a pair of playoff appearances, he is off to Carolina in a straight one-for-one player swap:

Patrik Puistola is a third-round pick from 2019 that is currently playing in the Liiga and he has 38 points in 56 games. His Dobber Prospects profile can be read here. At least he goes to a team that isn't four-lines deep on the wing.

Let's get to the analysis.

To Carolina

Mercifully, Puljujärvi has made his way out of Edmonton. Whatever went wrong there, whomever is to blame, that can be sorted another day. It wasn't working and he's going to get a very good opportunity in Carolina. It should be noted the team is fairly deep on the right side with Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, and Jesper Fast currently in the top-9. Maybe the newest addition slides into Fast's spot but this isn't a case of like Denis Gurianov where he's going right to the top line with his new team. Unless there are a couple of key injuries, it's unlikely that Puljujärvi sees much time in the top-6 this season, possibly even the top-9. For a little heads up: the top scoring winger in Carolina's regular bottom-6 is Jordan Martinook wit 28 points in 58 games, which works to a 40-point pace. For now, that is the best we can hope for Puljujärvi on a per-game basis unless he takes a huge, immediate leap forward. It is a big improvement on this year's production in Edmonton, but a bit behind what he did last year. He might play well in certain weeks/matchups for the balance of the 2022-23 campaign, and we do have to see where he lines up when he arrives to the team, but it's not a huge improvement for him in the short-term.

It is the long-term that matters here. Let's discuss that a bit further.

One common trope about Puljujärvi is that he could be someone's Valeri Nichushkin. We won't go into all the details here – I have a Twitter thread here that sums up all the reasons why this is not a good comparison – but very quickly:

  • Nichushkin showed much more promise in areas like controlled zone entries and shot assists (passes leading to shots) when he was at Puljujärvi's age than Pulju is currently showing. In simpler terms, Nichushkin had a much better playmaking profile than Pulju does.

It might sound like a small difference but it's not. It could be the difference between being a potential 30-goal, 75-point guy and a potential 25-goal, 45-point guy. It should go without saying that if you're constantly forechecking and infrequently passing the puck, racking up assists will be difficult. Pulju had some sparks of this very early in his career but it's been years since then. If Carolina can regain that, great, but there is a lot of work ahead. The comparison made in the Twitter thread was Pulju to early-career Brady Tkachuk (not 21-23 Brady Tkachuk). Even with a rebound, it seems like Pulju fits a mould more akin to Brendan Gallagher than Valeri Nichushkin.

For Pulju dynasty owners, this is about as good as it could get for them. The winger is now on one of the best coached teams in the league with a very sharp front office/management group. He will be given the opportunities to succeed and will be put in positions to do so. Now, it's up to him to make good on this opportunity.

Back in Edmonton, it doesn't help them. They free up cap space which can be used for a player like Mattias Ekholm or Jakob Chychrun, and either of those guys will help the roster. At the same time, Edmonton is basically just running Connor McDavid And Whoever Is Rested Right Now for line combinations. They do have Zach Hyman and Evander Kane (when he's healthy) and they can use both Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the wing, but you're just plugging one hole while another leak springs. In that sense, Pulju being traded doesn't really change much. The same deck chairs will be shuffled to McDavid's line for 3-4 minutes a game, will get 7-8 minutes elsewhere, and the beat rolls on.

For Carolina, guys like Stefan Noesen, Jesper Fast, and Derek Stepan are the guys that are set to lose out in the near-term. There could easily be a four-man rotation on the fourth line and while that doesn't really matter for fantasy, that could mean games where Noesen, who gets meaningful PP minutes, isn't in the lineup. That makes this team worth monitoring on a day-to-day basis for desperate fantasy streamers.

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Who This Helps

Jesse Puljujärvi

Patrik Puistola

Who This Hurts

Jesper Fast

Derek Stepan

Stefan Noesen

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