Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Doug)

I'm in a 12 team keeper that's points only (+10% PIM). I'm in full rebuild mode due to being in last place, and so far I have two first round and three second round picks for 2023. Here are my forwards as of when I'm writing this:

F – Sean Couturier, Alex Tuch, Pavel Zacha, Nick Schmaltz, Jordan Kyrou, Trevor Zegras, Nick Suzuki, Quinton Byfield, Kaapo Kakko, Anton Lundell, Kailer Yamamoto, Peyton Krebs, Vasily Podkolzin, Barrett Hayton, Casey Mittelstadt

Minors – Frank Nazar, Marco Rossi, William Eklund, Philip Tomasino, Logan Cooley, Jakob Pelletier

I'm looking for 4 players that stand out as droppable and/or tradable, and one has to be from the minors, where I can only keep five. Should I deal my older players as is normal for a rebuild, or is it better to get rid of some of my lower projected youth like Mittelstadt, Hayton and Pelletier given the potential strength of my minor league players? My personal view is there's a lot of value in Tuch, and Zacha is close to another gear; but Couturier makes little sense to trade due to his value being so low at the moment. What do you recommend? 

Starting first with your prospects, I'm not too keen on you having two undersized centers in Nazar and Rossi – three if you count Cooley, although he's not quite as diminutive. I'd look to trade one of them, probably Rossi, who, although worth a lot less than he was prior to the season, is starting to make waves in the AHL and still could fetch a decent return, with poolies having visions of him in the top six next season. If you want to keep both, then I'd consider dropping either Tomasino or Pelletier. I don't like that Tomasino was back in the AHL after posting decent numbers last season, and Pelletier could just be a career tweener. Both could still be impactful, but I think they'd be your most logical minors drops.

In terms of the main roster guys, you and I definitely don't see eye to eye regarding Zacha. Yes, he's doing better this season; however, he's not in uncharted territory, as his scoring had been this high previously but he then regressed the following season. I realize that him being what one could define as a bigger player he's only now at his 400 game breakout threshold, but his SOG rate is down, as is his ice time. The good news is he's on a high profile team in the Bruins; so I feel he's someone to trade while you can still get anything decent in return for him.

I also think there's little to no reason to hold out hope any longer for Yamamoto. From my perspective, if he was going to have made an impact, he'd have done so by now. Yes, he's undersized so technically we should wait until game 400 before delivering a verdict on him, but I see no reason for optimism. He barely shoots and he's had chances with both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Trade him, or, if you can't do so, drop him and move on without concern that doing so will someday come back to haunt you, as I think the chances of that happening are nearly zero.

I'd be leery of trading or dropping Hayton and Mittelstadt though. Mittelstadt needs a new team, and my guess is he'll get one by this time next season, what with the emergence of Dylan Cozens. He's still young enough to make an impact, although injuries are a concern. Hayton has had some life in him of late, including big jumps in ice time and SOG rate in Q3 thus far. He's only just scratching the surface, plus he has no impediments to becoming a top line guy. Be patient with these two.

I'm not, however, optimistic about Podkolzin. He's an odd man out in Vancouver, and this despite – like Yamamoto – having gotten chances with the top guys. I think he's a real risk to head to the KHL. If you can trade him for anything, do it. Otherwise, he's one of your drops.

Touching briefly on your other points, I'm a fan of Tuch too, and I agree that trading Couturier would be ill timed. In sum, I'd trade Rossi, and Zacha – separately or together – for picks. Podkolzin and Yamamoto I'd try to trade for picks too, or, if that can't happen, I'd drop them without hesitation. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Jamie)

I'm in a 20 team, weekly H2H dynasty cap (NHL) league that has ten skater categories (G, A, PTS, PIM, SOG, HIT, BLK, STP, FOW, Takeaways) plus 5 goalie categories). As I write this, I'm 2nd in the league and I already have accumulated 3 first round picks in next season's draft. I traded for Jonathan Huberdeau expecting he'd start to bounce back as the season wore on, but that hasn't happened. His $10.5M new deal worries me, but I can make it work if need be. Should I hold onto him and gamble that he figures it out, or should I attempt to trade him for a 2025 first rounder plus either Artturi Lehkonen or Jared McCann? Unrelatedly, my goalies are Jake Oettinger, Scott Wedgewood and Thatcher Demko. Should I consider trading Demko in the offseason given the mess in Vancouver?

Ah yes – the Huberdeau crystal ball. To figure out whether he might still bounce back, we need to land on what it is that seemingly has caused his stats to crater. In part I think it has to do with the pressures he's putting on himself not only by having to replace a player – in Matthew Tkachuk – who's excelling on what was Hubedreau's former team, but also doing so while set to earn nearly twice as much as he has been for so many years. Here's the big problem – neither of these two situations are going away. Yes, maybe Huberdeau can mentally put them behind him, but maybe not.

What about Huberdeau's metrics? He's shooting a lot less; but his SH% is lower too, so it's not a case of him being more selective, but rather him just…..shooting less. His ice time being down by as much as it is surely isn't helping matters; but that too might not be changing, as from the get go Calgary wasn't playing him a lot – that is, he's not seeing less ice time because he's performing poorly, but rather it seems like this was in the cards. His IPPs are down, particularly on the PP. But keep in mind they weren't that elevated last season, such that if his IPPs were at 2021-22 levels we're talking about a rise in scoring of about ten points, which would not even be enough to put Huberdeau close to the point per game level. I'd say best case scenario Huberdeau regains his confidence and ice time and rises back to the 85+ points next season and beyond. But I'd say there's just as great a chance, if not greater, of him being mired in the 70s going forward.

Given this, plus Huberdeau's salary, and what we've seen for now more than half a season, I think you should cut bait. Take the first rounder and Lehkonen, who looks like he's the new Andre Burakovsky for the Avs, which means ~65 point scoring per season.

As for Demko, you'd be selling very low. He would've been ideal to trade in the 2022 offseason, just like Huberdeau. Here's the thing, I'm not sure Demko has shown us enough to suggest he has it in him to be a top tier goalie even down the road. Yes, his GSAA and QS% last season suggest he was better than his 2.72 GAA and .915 SV%. He's still not even played in a total of two seasons worth of career games. He's also 27-years-old, so this isn't the case of a Carter Hart, who, despite his NHL tenure, is only 24. Instead, Demko is similar in age and experience to Alexandar Georgiev, who's had a strong season, although who knows if that's due to his ability or playing for the Avs. If we look at Demko's past three seasons, he played 27+ games in each, but tallied one or fewer shutouts, had a 2.72+ GAA and a SV% of .915 or less, all by age 26. Looking at other goalies who met those criteria in at least two seasons dating back to 2000-01, we get Hart, Joonas Korpisalo, Matt Murray, James Reimer, Ondrej Pavelec, Alex Auld, Dan Blackburn, Brian Boucher, and Marc Denis. Who knows if Murray could've become elite were it not for injuries, and I suppose the jury is still out when it comes to Hart; however, based on the other names, this is not a list of netminders among which one wants to see their fantasy goalie.

Do you trade him this offseason, when his value figures to be quite low, or keep him in hopes of a bounce back when you can sell at a better time? I'd hold and hope, but there's also no harm dangling him out there this summer to see what offers he can fetch you. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Benjamin)

I’m in a 12 team full roster keeper with a minimum of 12F, 6D, 2G and a maximum of 23 players. There are two IR spots and a 12 man farm roster which can only be those who are on ELCs. I should win the league this season, but with a flat cap upcoming I will be forced to make tough decisions as to who to keep and who to trade since we take a player's AAV as the salary and we use the NHL cap as ours. Our league is mostly a points only league, but with bonus points for STPs, and defensemen goals are also worth 1.5 times a forward goal. As I write this, my current roster is Kyle Connor, Nicolaj Ehlers, Jake Guentzel, Mats Zuccarello, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evander Kane, Brandon Hagel, Tage Thompson, Matt Boldy, Gabe Vilardi, Mason McTavish, Arthur Kaliyev, Josh Morrissey, Evan Bouchard, Calen Addison, Connor Timmins, Timothy Liljegren, Moritz Seider, Scott Perunovich

Jacob Markstrom, Jake Oettinger, Pheonix Copley. IR is: Cale Makar and John Carlson. Farm is

Cole Sillinger, Quinton Byfield, Alex Turcotte, Hendrix Lapierre, Adam Beckman, Jakob Pelletier, Cutter Gauthier, Liam Ohgren, Daila Yurov, Ville Heinola, Dustin Wolf. I also have 2 first round and second round picks in the upcoming entry draft.

I’m thinking I will drop Vilardi, Boldy, Carlson, and possibly one of Bouchard or Addison. Then I think I will have to drop one more player and I’m leaning towards a forward. I'm okay with trading for value or the player likely to provide the least for their contract. Who do you think should be my last roster change? Should I rethink any of the others?

I can see why your team is in first, what with the likes of Thompson, Hyman, RNH, Morrissey, Hagel and even Copley being great values in terms of where you likely drafted them or what you parted with to trade for them, or if they were just shrewd pick-ups. I do worry about the extent to which some, let alone all, can repeat their production in future seasons, so much so that I'd consider trading one or more of them. Topping the list would be Hyman. I figured he'd slow when Evander Kane returned, but he's been hotter than ever. Still– at age 30 and after never previously excelling, he's playing so far above a sustainable level that you owe it to yourself to trade him, if not now than during the offseason.

I'd also be counting on trading Copley, since as we've seen from Jack Campbell this season, and also to some extent Anton Forsberg before he got hurt, there is a reason why career minor leagues are career minor leaguers. Ideally I'd package Copley and Hyman to get a defenseman, since, as you'll see below, I feel that's where most of your cuts will need to be.

Does that mean I think Bouchard or Addison should be dropped? No; neither one, as they're not expensive and are up and comers. Yes, Addison has slowed significantly; but he is still the only true option for blueline offense on a Wild team that has another two seasons of huge cap penalties, meaning they won't be able to bring in a stud d-man, making it so Addison will have a long leash. Even if Addiison doesn't get another PPPt all season, the four most recent rookies to have as many PPPts as him are Moritz Seider, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Rasmus Dahlin. I'm definitely keeping Addison. Bouchard is frustrating because of Edmonton's continued reliance on Tyson Barrie. You need look no further than the stats that Barrie is producing to see what's going to be in store for Bouchard if you're patient and hold onto him for a little longer, as we're talking about a one-dimensional player in Barrie who will likely be gone after next season at the latest, not a situation like Mikhail Sergachev stuck behind Victor Hedman for the foreseeable future. Bouchard will get his time to shine, and you'll want him in your fold when he does.

Which rearguards don't make the cut? At least two of Liljegren, Timmins, and Perunovich. I realize that before getting hurt Perunovich was considered by many not only ready to be a full time NHLer but also perhaps a Calder favorite. Torey Krug has turned things around and Justin Faulk is still looming. I fear Perunovich will be stalled like Vince Dunn was before he went to Seattle. And the cuts have to come from somewhere. The other two also seem like steps down versus other options.

Boldy is a tough one. Between his hefty raise that kicks in next season, the lack of a top tier center in Minnesota, plus the team unlikely to get any big name free agents for at least three more summers due to their cap penalty, Boldy has a lower immediate ceiling. Yes, I realize that Marco Rossi still is in the mix; however, as I've said in many previous columns I don't foresee Rossi making an impact given his size and the lack of production from other undersized centers dating back to the days of Daniel Briere and Derek Roy. It's not like Bodly is stapled to superstar Kirill Kaprizov like Mats Zuccarello is, so I think in the end Boldy has to be a drop (NOTE: more on Boldy below in my answer to question #7).

As for Carlson, I think I can get behind dropping or trading him. The bottom is falling out for the Caps, and Carlson is expensive. Yes, he was shooting more than ever this season; but without a high-octane offense in front of him, he isn't the same. Trade him, but if you can't then he's a drop.

In sum, I'd drop Boldy, and two of Liljegren, Timmins and Perunovich, then trade Hyman, Carlson and Copley for a d-man, perhaps someone like Miro Heiskanen or Charlie McAvoy, who are both rock solid and young, but not highest echelon guys. That gets you to five fewer players on your team. Good luck!

Question #4 (from Teddy)

My teams are all out of the running for this season due to a combination of bad luck and, if I look at myself in the mirror, bad drafting and poor trading. So my attention has turned to next season, and I was wondering what you think of the crop of UFAs to be. Can you give me a couple who you think will perform better than expected plus a couple who you see as busts waiting to happen?

For forwards, three I think have the potential to exceed expectations are Jonathan Drouin, Alex Killorn, and J.T. Compher. I like Drouin because I feel Montreal was not a good fit for him, and a new start somewhere else could like a fire under his skates. Do I think he'll ever be anything close to the level of player originally envisioned when he was drafted third overall? Not a chance; however, he's only just about to turn 28 and likely will have to sign a "prove yourself" deal; and without a fat contract in his pocket, he might up his effort level much like he did after his early career turmoil in Tampa. As for Killorn, he's always been a good but not great player for the Lightning. He has PP acumen, and he can play on any of the top three lines. He also has big game, big pressure experience coming from the Lightning, which would likely translate well to a team on the rise. As for Compher, he's shown flashes of very solid play in his time with the Avs, but never got a chance to strut his stuff on a scoring line for an extended period. He's strong in the dot, and on the PP, so likely a second line role could be in the cards and should find him achieving success.

The defenseman crop is pretty thin for sleepers, but one I'm looking at is Jake Walman. What I like about Wallman is even if he produces solid numbers over the rest of 2022-23, his weak start (two points in his first 16 games) will likely disguise his production. He's never going to get big minutes on a team with Moritz Seider and Filip Hronek, but he's still in the mix and should do well if he lands somewhere at which he can have a shot at meaningful minutes. [Editor’s Note: This article was submitted before Walman re-signed with Detroit on a reasonable three-year, $3.4M contract].

In net, it's likewise tough to find a bargain, although I think Alex Nedjelkovic might surprise. He rattled off an amazing run of strong play to actually be a Calder nominee just two seasons ago. I think he's a better goalie than we've seen in Detroit, and he might even find himself back in Carolina, where he'd perhaps have a chance to be in the mix depending on what the Hurricanes decide to do in net.

Who are busts waiting to happen? I think Tyler Bertuzzi, after a great run of five straight seasons of higher SOG and scoring rates, has had the cumulative effects of injuries take their toll. I fear in him we might be seeing the next Anthony Mantha, who went from budding power forward fantasy asset to Band-Aid boy shell of his former self. I also feel that Frederick Andersen will disappoint, as if you look at his stats, he's been downright lousy three of the last four seasons and, truth be told, hasn't been a top-tier goalie in a while despite having huge name value. Whether it's injury issues or weak play, Freddy is likely to be a bust. I also would be careful not to think what we're seeing from Max Domi portends a comeback, as he's getting top tier ice time out of necessity more so than deservedness. He's done well enough to likely convince a team to give him a decent deal, and once that happens, and he has to contend with a roster that isn't tantamount to a glorified AHL squad like this year's Hawks, he's likely to falter. Good question!

Question #5 (from Will)

I was always trained to think that for a defenseman to be elite he had to shoot….a lot. But it seems like this season more so than ever there are rearguards pilling on the points without peppering the net with SOG. Is this an aberration or a new normal?

First, let's get the story behind the story in terms of results prior to this season. Looking at the ten most recent campaigns (i.e., 2021-13 to 2021-22), there were 184 instances of a defenseman scoring at 0.60 points per game or more (i.e., roughly a 50-point pace) while playing in 40+ games that same season. Of those, slightly more – 36 to 33 – averaged under 2.0 SOG per game than averaged three or more SOG per contest. But here's the kicker – if we go by points per game, just two of the top 50 had under two SOG per contest!

As for this season, of the 29 defensemen scoring at or above the same 0.6 points per game threshold and having played in 25+ games, again the number of those who are below 2.0 SOG per game is a bit higher than those above three, in this case seven to six. And yet again though, it's the high-volume shooters who are the top scorers, with only two of the top 15 in points per game averaging less than 2.0 SOG per contest.

Looking at those who are faring the best despite not shooting a lot, namely the likes of Quinn Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, Vince Dunn, Mikhail Sergachev, and Drew Doughty, we know that Hughes is a proven commodity, and McAvoy on a rung just below. But arguably Dunn and Doughty are seeing higher totals because of the offensive success of their teams, while Sergachev is coasting off a red hot start that has proven unsustainable.

What does this mean in terms of fantasy strategy? From where I sit, selective shooters have been able to clear the 50-point pace hurdle, and should continue to be able to do so. When talking about the upper echelons of scoring, that is the domain of high volume shooters. Even in a league where SOG isn't its own category, I'd say that all things being seemingly otherwise equal between two rearguards, I'd nearly always opt for the one who shoots more, except in cases of proven production (like Hughes and McAvoy) or players who will benefit from a rising tide lifting all boats, theirs included, ala Dunn and Doughty this season, although the latter group can be tough to predict, as one need only look at the average draft picks that Dunn and Doughty were going into this season. Good question!

Question #6 (from Darren)

Let's talk goalies. I believe when you were asked previously you didn't subscribe to the "zero goalie" strategy, and I'm with you on that. But how should poolies be ranking goalies in one-year leagues? Can tiers still work? If not that, then what?

For all the talk about the struggles of Jacob Markstrom, Sergei Bobrovsky, Thatcher Demko, Jack Campbell, Juuse Saros, and Marc-Andre Fleury, and the successes of Linus Ullmark, Vitek Vanecek, Martin Jones, Pheonix Copley, Filip Gustavsson and Pyotr Kochetov, let's not forget that among league leaders in wins are still the likes of Andrei Vasilevskiy, Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, and Jake Oettinger. It's not completely like up is down and left is right when it comes to goalie performance versus expectations. And guess what – that's not new! Yes, there used to be those handful of true #1 goalies who could be counted on season after season, getting a fantasy team 35-40 wins and strong peripherals; but otherwise it was a similar script to what's happening now, with some having good years and bad, others coming from nowhere, and some who just plain disappointed.

Is there a way to draft goalies in a 2G, one-year league in today's NHL? To me, the key is to look at goalies based on their situation. If a goalie has a lousy back-up and is a proven effective workhorse, I'm taking him once we get to a spot in the draft where I feel that we're past true difference makers among skaters. After that, one strategy is to take tandems, as worst-case scenario you get split starts but more often than not one emerges as the better of the two and you'll have covered your bases such that by the time there's separation among the two, chances are you'll be seeing surprise goalies emerge, so you can latch onto one of them. What I don't advocate doing though is taking what I call lousy workhorses. By that I mean guys like John Gibson, Carter Hart, or Jordan Binnington who have little chance of losing their starting gigs but who have more than proven they're no longer capable netminders.

Yes, I realize Vanecek, Ullmark, Logan Thompson, Martin Jones, Ville Husso, and Jeremy Swayman were examples of zero goalie success stories; but others who were picked around the same spot in Yahoo drafts – or even a bit earlier – include Fleury, Spencer Knight, Cam Talbot, Jonathan Quick, Binnington, Anton Forsberg, Semyon Varlamov, Pavel Francouz, and Elvis Merzlikins. In other words, there were more misses than hits if one employed a zero-goalie strategy. It's just that we hear a lot about the ones that succeed, making it like the zero-goalie strategy comes across as a surefire recipe for success, when in truth it's not even a 50/50 proposition. Good question!

Question #7 (from David)

I'm wondering if Matt Boldy is still considered a future star even after his step back this year? Can a 70-80 point season be expected soon? What about long term?

Unbeknownst to David, I already covered Boldy elsewhere in the column. But I can dig deeper. One positive about Boldy that many point to is his PP scoring, which ranks him tied for 28th among forwards. Guess what – he's received the 17th most PP minutes, with just two players who've taken the ice for more PP time having fewer PPPts. Body's SH% also is down a healthy amount versus last season, such that if his SH% was identical to that of his rookie campaign he'd have eight more goals and his scoring rate would be 66 instead of 55. Beyond that, last season he had considerably more SOG from 31+ feet versus 0-15 or 16-30, whereas this season the numbers are pretty comparable from each distance and that's despite a SOG per game rate that's up by 33% versus 2021-22. Either he got very lucky last season to have had as high of a SH%, or he's been unlucky in 2022-23, or, more likely, a combination of both. Suffice it to say, Boldy should have more goals now that he's actually accumulated.

Beyond that, his team's 5×5 SH% when he's been on the ice this season is a mere 5.8%, which is very, very low. There is nowhere for that to go but up, and, with that, his scoring. In fact, it's so low as to be in the bottom 50 of all forwards who've played 25+ games this season, with a mere one player (Mason McTavish) who averages even a point per every other game having a lower 5×5 team SH%. In a way, it's a marvel Boldy's done as well as he has.

Here's where the bad news comes in – Boldy's IPPs. Last season his overall IPP was only 60.9% and this season it's even lower at 57.4%. As noted above, a forward should get 60% just by showing up, so to see him with numbers like that is discouraging. But it gets even worse, as his IPPs on the PP was 55.6% in 2021-22 and for 2022-23 is an even lower 51.2%. There is no sugarcoating those numbers – they are not in line with what one wants to see from a highly touted youngster. And keep in mind this is without him playing much with Kirill Kaprizov or a skilled center, both of which could excuse his low IPPs. It would actually be better if his scoring was lower but his IPPs higher, as that at least would suggest he has a nose for scoring. This data indicates, instead, that he's a passenger and not one to create offense, which is a cause for major concern.

What does all this data tell us collectively? Yes, the individual and team SH% suggest that Boldy's has been shortchanged in terms of scoring for 2022-23; however, his IPPs do not paint the picture of a player who projects to be a star. If he's surrounded by talent and given ample PP minutes then yes, he could be a 70 point player; but more than that seems less likely given this data. Good luck!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.