Fantasy Take: Bjugstad Heading To Edmonton
Michael Clifford
2023-03-02
After acquiring the big defenceman they had been seeking for a while in Mattias Ekholm, the focus of the Edmonton Oilers turned to filling out the forward roster. The team has had serious problems generating offence whenever Connor McDavid is off the ice and they made a deal with the Arizona Coyotes to help address that:
Michael Kesslering is a 23-year-old sixth-round pick from 2018 with 38 points in 125 AHL games, so this is about organizational depth and adding a draft pick from Arizona's perspective. With the help of Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick, let's dig into Nick Bjugstad a bit.
What the Oilers get
Bjugstad has been well-traveled of late as Edmonton makes five teams for him in the last five seasons. He has never been a big producer with zero 25-goal or 50-point seasons to his name, but he has showing the ability to score. From 2017-20, a span of 159 games, he had the same goals/60 rate at 5-on-5 as Jordan Eberle and Evander Kane, slightly higher than names like Kevin Fiala and Claude Giroux. He had a couple lean years in Minnesota – everyone outside the top line/top PP unit typically has – but his 0.83 goals/60 this season is just below Michael Bunting (0.85) and just above Rickard Rakell (0.8). A career-high shooting percentage helps, but if he can play minutes with Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl, he could really stand to benefit here.
And, of course, that's the crux to all this. Guys that can skate somewhat regularly with the two top scorers in Edmonton can be productive – Jesse Puljujärvi had 15 goals and 25 points in the Bubble Season while Kailer Yamamoto managed a 20-goal campaign last season. With Bjugstad laying the body as he does – 218 hits in his last 116 games – if he can be a 20-goal/82-game guy, he is valuable for fantasy. It all depends how he's used so until then, it's hard to say "run to the waiver wire" at the moment. He can be streamed if anyone's desperate, but he could end up with 13 minutes a night on the third line. If he doesn't, though, there is goal-scoring upside that can play very well with his physicality for banger leagues.
It will be interesting to see how this affects Arizona's top PP unit. Bjugstad had been getting time there, but that's over with. Both top defencemen are gone so they're running a 4F/1D top PP unit. Do they just go back to Nick Ritchie, add a shooter like Lawson Crouse, or more playmaking with Mattias Maccelli? It may just be Travis Boyd, who has been on the top PP unit at times of late, but that's so boring.
It is hard to say if this really hurts anyone's fantasy value in Edmonton. Bjugstad won't play above Evander Kane when he returns and the points leader among Oilers forwards that aren't on the top PP unit is Ryan McLeod with 19. This could hurt guys like Warren Foegele and Mattias Janmark, but the fantasy value was so low to begin with that finding replacements would be easy.
Who this helps
Nick Bjugstad (depending on lineup slot)
Who this hurts
Klim Kostin