Looking Ahead: Adjusting Values from Recent Trades
Andrew Santillo
2023-03-03
Welcome back and happy deadline day! I think there's a chance here that we may all be watching TSN/NHL Network waiting for something to happen because this time around all or most of the larger deals were filed into the league this week. Regardless, if a trade goes down in the NHL, we will be sure to provide you with the fantasy impact that each will have moving forward.
Speaking of trades! This week's Looking Ahead will be focused on players dawning a new sweater or those in a current one that may be impacted by a new kid in town. Want to make mention as well for those looking to add players from a trade or that are rostering ones that may be on the move. There's a chance that player involved in a deal does not suite up right away for their new club. Patrick Kane got moved from Chicago (I'm not over it yet), and was not in the lineup on Wednesday for New York, but will be Thursday. This is common and something to watch for. Likewise, Lars Eller got dealt from Washington to Colorado with both clubs on the slate the day of the trade. Because both were in action, Eller was available in the DFS player pool as a Washington Capital, with any points he accrued counting towards Colorado. If Colorado were playing that night but the Capitals were not, Eller would not be eligible to roster in DFS.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Erik Gustafsson, D, Toronto Maple Leafs (Rostered in 23% of ESPN leagues, 68% Fantrax, 50% Yahoo) – I wrote up Gustafsson earlier this season when John Carlson was reported to miss time and since then he's played well. With 21 points in his last 26 games, he's one of many new members of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Monday Maple Leafs compared to the Thursday afternoon Maple Leafs are two completely different teams. Part of this new bunch is Gustafsson, and I like this pickup for them along with the other acquisitions that they've made. Look, we can point fingers to why Toronto hasn't gotten out of the first round of playoffs, but one thing that I think gets somewhat overlooked was their power play production, or lack thereof. With Gustafsson I think this fills a need for this club and provides a good opportunity for fantasy and DFS.
Gustafsson has been quarterbacking the Capitals' top power play and I think in Toronto he's going to be put in a similar role. Maybe not right out of the gate, but I have hard time thinking that Toronto isn't going to try different things on their power play with around 20 games left in the regular season which could mean top power play time for Gustafsson. Down the stretch if your club is in need of a defensemen, I think Gustafsson makes for a good option if he's on the top power play or even if he's not. I watched in 2018-19 when his game really took off and he became more of a blueline that moved up in the play and while sometimes that hurts defensively, I think the offense that he can bring with that style of play can lead to excellent offensive production on this Toronto club.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Mattias Ekholm, D, Edmonton Oilers (Rostered in 10% of ESPN leagues, 36% Fantrax, 24% Yahoo) – I wrote earlier this season that I thought that the Edmonton Oilers could possibly go to a Cup final this year. My thought process besides rostering 97, was that the team would start Skinner over Campbell (was never a fan of that signing), trade for a lockdown defenseman, and ultimately either move or take Tyson Barrie off of the top power play. Pace slows down come playoffs, but I like the clubs that can move up and down quickly if they're down a goal late in the third, which Edmonton can do. I am very excited for this Ekholm addition, and I think it makes for an excellent addition to your fantasy club going forward.
I was going to come on here and write about Evan Bouchard who has now been set free, but I wanted to keep this more for newer additions and I really like what Edmonton did here. I heard and read the concerns surrounding Ekholm before he was moved be it his age (32), injury history, and cap hit ($6 million), to make the money work. It's weird when you're 32 and a player you're writing about is the same age and conceived to be "old". I don't think 32 is old, everyone. Mattias, we still have plenty of good years left in the NHL and/or blogging about the NHL. Remember, "older" never "old" everyone. Seriously though I was concerned for these reasons that a deal may fall through, but Ekholm going to Edmonton is the perfect spot to take advantage of a good fantasy opportunity.
I like what Ekholm brings defensively as more of a shutdown D-man and that's important when we talk about most teams but more so the Oilers with the forwards that they can put out on the ice. I watched Wednesday night's game against Toronto and Ekholm was able to provide what I thought he could in his Oilers debut: Keep the puck in the offensive zone for longer possessions giving Edmonton's top-line more offensive opportunities. There were two rushes in particular late in the second period that were extending because of his play on the blueline and ability to get the puck down low. That helped lead to goals for Edmonton on the following rush given the length of time that Toronto was on the ice.
Ekholm's scoring may be a tad lower this season than in previous, but the names that he will have around him along with quarterbacking Edmonton's top power-play put him in a far better situation for fantasy in Edmonton than he had in Nashville. This season Edmonton is a full ten goals better on the man advantage compared to the next closest club. I expect that his roster numbers should really start to climb here, especially with Edmonton on a back-to-back this weekend. For fantasy I think this is a move to make here quickly and in DFS my stance on Edmonton hasn't really changed throughout the regular season. If you're going to play them, full power play stack.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Pheonix Copley, G, Los Angeles Kings (Rostered in 25% of ESPN leagues, 62% of Fantrax, 54% Yahoo) – The trade that went down between Los Angeles and Columbus involving Jonathan Quick, Joonas Korpisalo, and Vladislav Gavrikov may have been one of the more polarizing deals that has gone down so far this trade deadline. For fantasy there's been questions about Copley's role now as the season goes on, which is undoubtedly going to look different than it did a week ago.
I write about goaltending over at our sister site GoaliePost, and for the past two weeks now I've highlighted Korpisalo as a potential lower rostered addition. His underlying numbers really have not been too bad despite playing on a Columbus club that often finds itself 32nd place in the standings. This season he has a .911 save percentage, 5.8 goals saved above average, and 7.59 high danger goals saved above average at even strength. Not bad for a goaltender playing on the club with third-highest shots allowed per game.
Copley on the other hand has struggled as of late, allowing five goals in his last start out against Winnipeg and carrying a .857 save percentage over the last week. I have a hard time thinking that Los Angeles would move a first-round pick here for a goaltender to essentially be a backup come playoffs, and that's even if Gavrikov was the center of the deal in the Kings' eyes. My best guess going forward is that time is split between Copley and Korpisalo with a decision ultimately being made closer to playoffs as to who will see the starter's net come round one. Copley was a great addition to fantasy rosters in December and January with his consistent starts in net and I still think he can provide some help moving forward, but this looks to be a shared starting job throughout the rest of the regular season.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Filip Hronek, D, Vancouver Canucks (Rostered in 56% of ESPN leagues, 89% Fantrax, 69% Yahoo) – So here's the head scratcher from the trade deadline so far and given the roster numbers here, I'm not optimistic for decent fantasy stats as we go forward for Hronek.
When Hronek was traded from Detroit to Vancouver on Wednesday, I just kind of stared at my iPhone screen for a half a minute or so and really couldn't come up with anything here. First my mind went to the salary cap that Vancouver now finds itself over again, but then I started to think of how Hronek's play fits and helps the Canucks. Don't get me wrong, I think Hronek is a decent player, but he's one that does most of the work on the power play and I don't think Vancouver's second power-play unit is necessarily the optimal spot here for production. Be it that, Vancouver's power play hasn't been as bad as I perceived it to be with the 8th most goals scored on the man advantage and 15th best expected goals for.
Hronek this season has set a new career high in goals with nine and points with 38 but I feel like his usage is going to begin to decline moving forward. I think if you're rostering him it may be time to look elsewhere for a defenseman, as the opportunities he had in Detroit will not be as prevalent in Vancouver.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through March 5th to March 15th
Colorado – We might throw two loves here and Love Love the Avalanche upcoming. They'll play both Saturday and Sunday this weekend which is great news for those rostering anyone from Colorado. They also have a very favorable schedule next week with home games against San Jose and Arizona.
Carolina – Carolina has Montreal and Philadelphia on the horizon which interests us both for fantasy and DFS. They'll be a Love 'Em for this week based off their first two games next week alone.
Tampa Bay – The Lightning play twice this weekend which is optimal for a club that is higher rostered on all fantasy sites and in DFS on a given slate, but they also have a nice schedule as we move forward into next week. Tampa starts a four game homestand in which they'll see both Philadelphia and Chicago. For the club that has the second-best home record in the NHL, this is a very favorable stretch.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Minnesota – Not a great outlook here for the Wild looking ahead. They're still in the midst of a western Canada road trip which is never easy. They also will come home for a Tuesday matchup against Calgary only to fly out and face off against Winnipeg the following day.
Toronto – The Leafs are one of two clubs that will only play twice next week. Bad news for those rostering a player or two on one of the higher rostered clubs in the NHL.
Detroit – Next week they'll see Chicago at home which of course favors the Red Wings, but it's the home and home next weekend against Boston that has me concerned. Not many clubs have had to go through that sort of gauntlet this season, the Red Wings will be a Leave 'Em for the time being.
Friday, March 3rd to Thursday, March 9th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.43 – Away ARI MTL – Home TBL PHI |
Vegas 4.17 – Away FLA TBL – Home NJD MTL |
Colorado 4.16 – Away DAL – Home SEA SJS LAK |
Winnipeg 4.15 – Away EDM – Home EDM SJS MIN |
New Jersey 4.09 – Away VGK ARI WSH – Home TOR |
Steer Clear |
Toronto 1.90 – Away VAN NJD |
Boston 1.94 – Home NYR EDM |
NY Rangers 2 – Away BOS MTL |
Florida 2.05 – Home PIT VGK |
Minnesota 2.65 – Away CGY WPG – Home CGY |
Saturday, March 4th to Friday, March 10th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.16 – Away DAL – Home SEA SJS LAK |
Buffalo 4.06 – Away NYI – Home PHI EDM DAL |
Chicago 4 – Away DET FLA – Home NSH OTT |
Calgary 3.96 – Away DAL MIN – Home MIN ANA |
Philadelphia 3.76 – Away BUF TBL CAR – Home DET |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 1.90 – Away OTT PIT |
Toronto 1.90 – Away VAN NJD |
Boston 1.94 – Home NYR EDM |
NY Rangers 2 – Away BOS MTL |
Minnesota 2.65 – Away CGY WPG – Home CGY |
Sunday, March 5th to Saturday, March 11th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Colorado 4.52 – Home SEA SJS LAK ARI |
Carolina 4.34 – Away MTL – Home TBL PHI VGK |
New Jersey 4.28 – Away ARI WSH MTL – Home TOR |
Tampa Bay 4.28 – Away CAR – Home PHI VGK CHI |
Seattle 4.11 – Away COL – Home ANA OTT DAL |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 1.90 – Away PIT – Home STL |
Toronto 2.10 – Away NJD – Home EDM |
Boston 2.15 – Home EDM DET |
NY Rangers 2.19 – Away MTL BUF |
Anaheim 2.71 – Away SEA VAN CGY |
Monday, March 6th to Sunday, March 12th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.57 – Home PHI VGK CHI WPG |
Chicago 4.44 – Away MTL NJD – Home PHI VGK |
St. Louis 4.30 – Away ARI CBJ – Home SJS VGK |
Calgary 4.06 – Away DAL MIN – Home ANA OTT |
Pittsburgh 4.04 – Home CBJ NYI PHI NYR |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 1.90 – Away PIT – Home STL |
Toronto 2.10 – Away NJD – Home EDM |
Philadelphia 2.52 – Away TBL CAR PIT |
Washington 2.82 – Away LAK NYI – Home NJD |
Edmonton 2.85 – Away BUF BOS TOR |
Tuesday, March 7th to Monday, March 13th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.57 – Home PHI VGK CHI WPG |
Colorado 4.50 – Away MTL – Home SJS LAK ARI |
Carolina 4.44 – Away MTL NJD – Home PHI VGK |
St. Louis 4.30 – Away ARI CBJ – Home SJS VGK |
Seattle 4.25 – Home ANA OTT DAL DAL |
Steer Clear |
Edmonton 1.81 – Away BOS TOR |
Los Angeles 1.85 – Away COL – Home NSH |
Columbus 1.90 – Away PIT – Home STL |
Washington 1.96 – Away NYI – Home NJD |
Vancouver 2.26 – Home ANA OTT |
Friday, March 8th to Tuesday, March 14th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.41 – Away NJD – Home VGK CHI WPG |
Carolina 4.35 – Away NJD – Home PHI VGK WPG |
Boston 4.29 – Away DET CHI – Home EDM DET |
Pittsburgh 4.25 – Home NYI PHI NYR MTL |
Nashville 4.14 – Away ARI LAK ANA |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 2.04 – Away SJS – Home STL |
Toronto 2.21 – Home EDM BUF |
Florida 2.31 – Home CHI WPG |
Anaheim 2.65 – Away VAN CGY – Home NSH |
Philadelphia 2.71 – Away CAR PIT – Home VGK |
Saturday, March 9th to Wednesday, March 15th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Tampa Bay 4.41 – Away NJD – Home VGK CHI WPG |
Carolina 4.35 – Away NJD – Home PHI VGK WPG |
Colorado 4.30 – Away MTL TOR – Home LAK ARI |
Boston 4.29 – Away DET CHI – Home EDM DET |
Pittsburgh 4.25 – Home NYI PHI NYR MTL |
Steer Clear |
Columbus 2.04 – Away SJS – Home STL |
Vancouver 2.10 – Home OTT DAL |
Florida 2.31 – Home CHI WPG |
Winnipeg 2.52 – Away FLA TBL CAR |
Anaheim 2.70 – Away CGY – Home NSH NYI |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.
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Hronek is exactly what the Canucks needed. I think he’ll have good potential for offense too. Van scored 20 more goals than Detroit this year and he won’t be competing with Mo Seider on the right side.
I hope so, Hronek has always been a player I’ve liked. I think Vancouver is making a good move in giving the blueline a complete renovation (outside of Hughes), curious how he looks on this club and if he can work more to advance the play up ice to the Pettersson line.