Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

With the trade deadline having come and gone, and fantasy playoffs nearing, we're into the home stretch for 2022-23. Yes, some of you have regrettably had to shift your focus to next season; however, everyone is alike in needing to know which players are for real, which are mirages and which can sustain their current paces. Where to go to get that kind of precious information? Right here, as this month our three skaters are Kevin Fiala, Jack Hughes, and Andrei Kuzmenko. Press pause and try to deduce which player falls into each category, then read on to find out if you nailed all three. All stats are current trough March 3rd games.

Kevin Fiala (63 games, 21G, 43A 193 SOG, 22 PPPts, 17:40 TOI, 3:00 PP, 57.2% PP%)

Originally selected eleventh overall, Fiala had cameos that same season and the next but didn't see action in a full campaign until 2017-18, posting 48 points. Fiala was having a poor 2018-19, leading to him being traded to Minnesota, where things didn't improve and it looked like Fiala might be a letdown in the making. Then he awoke with the Wild, pacing at 69 points then 66 points, always starting slow but igniting in the second half. Finally in 2021-22 all the dots connected and he posted 85 points. But the cap constrained Wild couldn't keep him and all their other players, so he was moved as an RFA to the Kings, and this season he's fared about the same. Is this what we should expect from him for the rest of 2022-23 and beyond? According the data and trends, expect him to further improve.

Looking at Fiala's stats, we see his SOG rate is essentially the same this season as it was in his prior two, which is both a positive and a negative, as in one he scored at an 85 point pace but in the other it was only 66. Fiala's TOI for 2022-23 is nearly identical to 2021-22, but he's had a slight bump in PP minutes. One thing to notice is he appears to have room to see both his SOG rate and ice times still rise further. Of course, that would require LA to shift its focus from being a fairly balanced team to leaning on one unit more than the other, which is not something they seem poised to do. Still, the one benefit as compared to last season is Fiala did have to log some PK minutes for Minnesota in 2021-22, whereas that's not the case for 2022-23. Yet despite this, his OZ% is down slightly. Again, that is likely due to LA not anointing one line its go to for most offensive situations, which is a good news bad news situation in that Fiala could do more, but will he get the chance?

Where Fiala has made major strides is on the PP, as it took him until only game 50 to tie his career high in PPPts. He's making the most of his man advantage time, as despite only logging the 62nd most PP minutes of all forwards, he's tied for 25th in PPPts. Why is that? Because Fiala is a PPT magnet, with an IPP on the PP of 81.5%. I know what you're likely thinking – that's not sustainable, is it? The answer is not only could he sustain it – he might have the capacity to do even better! After all this is a player who only once in the past four seasons had an IPP on the PP of less than 73.0%, and had a high of 87.5%. Let's not forget some of those seasons saw him on the Wild's second unit. In 2022-23, when he was finally on PP1, it was his lowest mark at 68.0%.

Also, just when we thought last season Fiala had finally moved past his notorious slower starts, it looks like he's possibly doing that again, albeit less drastically. Out of the gate he had 18 points in his first 21 contests, with zero points in nearly half of those games. Since then, he's had 46 points in 42 games. The jump in scoring isn't as pronounced; however, with 30 points in his final 22 games last season, we should expect similar output in Q4 this season, if not even better.

Going back to zero point games, one thing about Fiala is he's a little feast or famine, as while he's had 19 multipoint games, he's also had a point in only 55.6% of his games. If we look at the 14 forwards with more multipoint games than he's had, the next lowest rate of games with at least one point is 61.4%, with half at 71%+. Twelve forwards have had fewer multipoint games than Fiala despite a higher points-per-game average. As noted, a lot of those games without points came early, and he's since been more consistent; therefore, I feel this data bodes well for him to see scoring gains.

What's also encouraging is that after playing the first half of 2022-23 almost exclusively with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, namely the best LA has to offer in terms of forwards, for Q3 his most frequent linemates have been the far less venerable Blake Lizotte and Jaret Anderson-Dolan. Yet still he produced at a point per game. This shows Fiala is a driver of offense, which, in truth, we already knew by virtue of his overall IPP being 77.1%, putting him on pace to have it be 77% or higher for the fourth straight season! That is about as elite as it comes for IPP, and suggests Fiala can be even better if the team around him improves.

Still only 26, Fiala's IPPs are amazing, and he's now able to produce better on the PP thanks to being more of a focal point. He has realistic room to shoot and play more, although I'm not sure we can count on those things happening, yet perhaps if LA becomes a bigger threat they will lean on their stars – like him – with increased ice time. Fiala still has room to get more consistent while not losing his explosiveness. In all, for 202-23 Fiala has been TOO COLD and I give him a rating of 3.0, as he should be closer to a 90-point scorer and might just be by season's end.

Jack Hughes (57 games, 36G, 39A, 257 SOG, 23 PPPts, 20:03 TOI, 3:16 PP, 71.3% PP%)

The first name called at the 2019 entry draft, Hughes – not surprisingly – was in the NHL that same season. Truth be told, he looked and played like a boy among men. He made minor strides in year two, besting the point per every other game mark. Whispers were starting as to whether Hughes was as good as first advertised. Hughes put those concerns to rest in 2021-22 though, as he cruised past the point per game mark. For 2022-23 his scoring is even higher. Is this for real, or just an extended period of strong play? Signs suggest that what we're seeing from Hughes should be able to continue, and perhaps, sometime down the road, even improve.

If you're a reader of my column, you'll know that Hughes, in averaging 4.5+ SOG per game and 1.2+ points per game, would be the first center age 21 or younger to meet both criteria since some guy named Mario Lemieux. Connor McDavid didn't do it, Nathan MacKinnon didn't do it, Auston Mattews didn't do it, and Sidney Crosby didn't do it. What's more, another player who did was none other than Wayne Gretzky. Hughes achieving these feats is even more outstanding than it looks, and it already looked impressive.

But Hughes is doing this without huge PP scoring, placing a limit as to how prolific a scorer he can be. If we look at centers from 2010-11 through last season, there were a total of 20 instances of ones finishing a season with 1.3 points per game or better, a threshold above which Hughes is as I write this. Of those, just two averaged fewer PPPts per game than Hughes is right now. It's not like Hughes isn't doing his part, as his IPP on the PP is a very strong 75.9%. It's the team around him that wasn't capable of helping him pad his man advantage scoring. Of all Timo's Meier's attributes, PP scoring is not at the top of the list, as this is the first season he's above one per every third game, and yet still his scoring was down versus 2021-22 at the time he was traded.

As for Hughes' other metrics, his secondary assist rate has upticked as compared to not only last season but the one prior; yet it's still under 40%, which, for a center, is very good. His 5×5 team shooting percentage is in double digits for the first time in his career, but only is 10.7%, which further suggests that he's doing all he can but those around him aren't giving him the boost he needs to be among the very best of the best in terms of scoring. Or to put it another way, unlike McDavid he has no Leon Draisaitl, and unlike MacKinnon he has no Mikko Rantanen, and unlike Matthews he has no Mitch Marner. While Meier is talented, he's not in this echelon of wingers. In fact, New Jersey already had Jesper Bratt, who, at the time of the trade, had a higher scoring rate than Meier and who didn't always play alongside Hughes.

Yes, Hughes has a high OZ%; but it's barely above what it was in his prior two campaigns. If/when it goes down it should be due to the team being more well-rounded and potent, such that even if he starts a lower percentage of his shifts in the offensive zone, there should be no net drop in his scoring rate, as it's not like his rate would plummet and the boost he might get from playing with Meier could offset that, for neither a gain or loss in scoring.

Back to Hughes' shooting, what's amazing is he's nearly at the same SH% as 2021-22 despite taking roughly 35% more SOG. In fact, if he was to finish the season still at 4.5 SOG+ per game and 14% or higher in SH%, he'd become just the third center to do so since the 1990-91 season, with the other two being Auston Matthews in 2021-22 and Evgeni Malkin in 2011-22. What did both of them have in common? A scoring rate of 119 points, which suggests it's realistic to envision Hughes doing even better once things fall into place.

Let's also realize that Hughes just recently passed his 200-game breakout threshold. A player's breakout threshold means that's when he breaks out, not, per se, when he peaks. Hughes can indeed do better; and if other top scoring centers are any indication he should, as Matthews and McDavid saw their scoring rates increase, respectively, for six and five straight seasons to start their careers. For each, as noted, they had talent with them, as Matthews had Marner from game number one and McDavid had Draisaitl. Hughes now has Meier; but again, New Jersey already had Bratt, and chances are if Hughes and Meier do play together, it might not even be a great pairing, as remember both shoot a ton and there are only so many SOG to go around.

If there was any doubt Hughes is a superstar in the making, that's been put to rest. The addition of Meier might seem like it will be a boon to him in terms of scoring; but Meier has been a streaky scorer and they both can't take 4.5 SOG per game, plus New Jersey already had Bratt, a higher scorer. Thus, for now Hughes is likely pretty much maxed out as far as production, making his 2022-23 output JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.5.

Andrei Kuzmenko (60 gms, 27G, 26A, 108 SOG, 10 PPPts, 16:14 TOI, 2:56 PP, 54.7% PP%)

Coming to the NHL this season at age 26 after better than point per game production in his last KHL campaign, folks weren't too sure how Kuzmenko would fare. But after he stormed out of the gate, mainly due to finding chemistry with Elias Pettersson, the doubters were largely silenced. But he's had cold streaks during the season and up and down SOG rates. Who is the real Kuzmenko? Probably not as good as what we've seen thus far.

Looking at Kuzmenko's numbers, what immediately jumps out is his SH%, which, at 25%, is stratospheric. Still, he's been able to keep it that high all season long, so perhaps it's not as troublesome of a sign as it might otherwise seem? Looking at other first year players who scored above a 0.75+ points per game pace but below a point per game pace while sporting a 20%+ SH%, we find just one since 1990-91, which was Sergei Nemchinov, who, after a promising rookie campaign and sophomore season, became more of a defensive specialist. It's also notable that Nemchinov, like Kuzmenko, was an older rookie, at age 28. More on older rookies below.

We can't really compare what Kuzmenko is doing to many other first year players to gauge what his SH% is likely to mean. But you know what we can use for comparison purposes? His high number of tip in goals.

Of Kuzmenko's 27 goals, 11 have come via tip ins, helping explain his high SH%, since tip in goals, when you can get them, are like lay-ups in basketball. Here's the thing – more tip in goals isn't a good thing if recent history is a barometer. Cases in point are the last three forwards to finish a season with double digit tip-ins: Chris Kreider in 2021-22, David Backes in 2014-15, and Ryan Callahan in 2010-11. In the case of Kreider, here in his next season his scoring pace is down from 78 to 60, while Backes saw his total drop from a 59-point pace to 47, and he never again bested a 47-point pace. As for Callahan, he went from 66 points to 58 and subsequently never rose back to a 60-point pace. High tip-in goal totals have been demonstrated to be followed by the player coming back to earth, which, when you think about it, is logical. Kuzmenko's SH% is explained by this tip in factor, as without those XX tip-in goals his SH% would be 14.8%.

Let's go back to Kuzmenko's age, as he's now 27. Many supporters think he could be the next Artemi Panarin. But let's not forget that Panarin, although no spring chicken when a rookie, was 24 throughout his first season, making him quite a bit younger than Kuzmenko. Besides Nemchinov, have there been other comparable older first year players to make a splash? The answer is yes

The two most recent examples of first year players age 26+ who had a points per game of between 0.75 and 1.0 both occurred in the same 1992-93 season: Dmitri Kvartalnov and Nicolai Borschevsky. Don't fault yourself if you fail to recognize the names, as both were flashes in the pan, with Kvartalnov going from 72 points in 73 games as a first year player at age 26, to 19 points in 39 games as a sophomore, and then he was gone from the NHL. Borschevsky fared a tad better, following up a rookie season of 74 points in 78 games at age 28 with 34 points in 45 games the next season. But he was likewise gone from the NHL in short order, in his case after 39 games spread across the next two seasons during which he tallied a mere 14 points. Although past results do not dictate future performance, this is not fine company in which Kuzmenko finds himself.

What about other metrics? Kuzmenko's secondary assist rate is 61.5%, meaning that of his 53 points, more than half (i.e., 27) have come via secondary assists or tip ins, neither of which are likely sustainable. As for his IPPs, overall he's a 65.4%, which is good but not great, and pales in comparison to Panarin's rookie rate of 72.0%. Kuzmenko's PP IPP is an atrocious 43.5%. How bad is that? Of the 79 forwards who've skated for more PP minutes than Kuzmenko, only five have a lower PP IPP. While one could say that means it could only go up, the issue is on Vancouver there are no shortage of PP options, and sure enough after taking the ice for more than 50% of his team's man advantage minutes in 12 of his first 13 games and then again later for 12 straight contests, his share of PP minutes have been up and down.

When you peel back the layers on Kuzmenko, there are several warts to be seen. It's not just that his SH% is high, but it's padded due to tip-in goals, which, along with his high secondary assist rate, is unsustainable and, as past results suggest, portend a scoring decline. Kuzmenko's age also is a concern, as first year players who were older like him have proven to be bright initial flame which quite burn out. Looking at his IPP on the PP, he's very weak, suggesting Vancouver, which has no shortage of players it can deploy on their top unit, might push him to PP2. Given all this, Kuzmenko has been TOO HOT for 2022-23 and gets a rating of 9.0. I see him as a no more than a 60-point player, with a very real possibility of the bottom falling out if he gets complacent and loses his plum gig alongside EP40. If you own him in a keeper, I'd move him now and not think twice about doing so.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.