Perhaps the least-discussed injury of the season is that of Washington defenceman John Carlson. He hasn't played since Christmas thanks to a puck to the head, and that put a strain on the entire lineup. Up until his injury, Washington was 13^th by expected goal share at 5-on-5, 14^th by overall goal share and ahead of teams like Seattle, Minnesota, Edmonton, Florida, Ottawa, and Los Angeles, and 15^th by points percentage. Since he left the lineup, the team is 20^th by expected goal share, 20^th by actual goal share, and 26^th by points percentage. That is despite getting back players like Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom, and TJ Oshie. The good news is Carlson was in a non-contact jersey at practice on Wednesday:

John Carlson will skate with the Capitals today for first time since he was hit in head with a shot Dec. 23. He is still a ways from being ready to play.

Has another doctor's appointment today.

— Tom Gulitti (@TomGulittiNHL) March 8, 2023

He clearly still has some time to go before he returns but if Washington has any hope of turning the ship around and getting to the postseason, they'll need him back ASAP. Until then, Rasmus Sandin is close to a must-own in the fantasy game.

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It should also be noted that Anthony Mantha has jumped to the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Let's see what he can do with this opportunity.

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For those worried about a certain Tampa Bay defenceman:

#GoBolts on the ice for a rare practice and yes Victor Hedman is participating in a full practice pic.twitter.com/l8XOPUePY7

— Lightning Insider (@Erik_Erlendsson) March 8, 2023

It is good to see Hedman skating, but for fantasy purposes, he needs that PP1 role back. We will see if he can get it anytime soon for H2H playoffs.

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An important development for fantasy owners quick enough to snag Dmitry Orlov following his trade to Boston:

PP1: Orlov, Pastrnak, Marchand, Bergeron, DeBrusk
PP2: Lindholm, McAvoy, Krejci, Zacha, Bertuzzi

— Fluto Shinzawa (@FlutoShinzawa) March 8, 2023

The Boston power play has been very good this season, or at least the top unit has. This could be an even bigger bump for the new guy than what he had been enjoying. Congrats to the waiver wire hawks!  

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The Ottawa Senators had some bad news about goalie Cam Talbot:

DJ Smith – Talbot out 3 weeks.

— TSN 1200 (@TSN1200) March 8, 2023

The Senators already have Anton Forsberg on the shelf so now they're down to their organizational depth in net until the end of the month. Considering they're in a tight playoff race, this isn't good news. Fantasy owners should check for Mads Søgaard to see if he's on the wire because he might get some run in net now. The downside to that is their upcoming schedule: In Seattle, Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmont, then home against Colorado and Toronto over the next 10 days. Good luck with all that, streamers.

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A small update on Colorado winger Gabriel Landeskog:

Jared Bednar spoke for more than 15 minutes today, a ton of interesting quotes.

The most significant being that, Gabe Landeskog's current injury (and second surgery) is unrelated to last year's surgery that came just before the postseason. #Avs.

— Jesse Montano (@jessemontano_) March 8, 2023

It's not much of one, and the team said there's still no timeline, but at least (it seems) he's not re-aggravating the same issue. That's something?

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A 4-2 loss at home to Minnesota dropped Winnipeg to 10-13-2 in their last 25 games as they've gone from a threat to win the Central Division to fighting for a Wild Cart spot. It wasn't a hollow loss as they forced Marc-André Fleury to make 46 saves for the win but it was two points for the Wild nonetheless.

Ryan Hartman scored his first goal in eight games though he does have 23 shots in those contests. Marcus Foligno had a goal and an assist for his first multi-point game since before Thanksgiving. Jacob Middleton had two assists, two blocks, and two hits for a solid multi-cat effort.

Nino Niederreiter had a goal on four shots, and now has four points in five games with the Jets. He is doing his part.

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Late goals from Lucas Raymond and Dominik Kubalik lifted Detroit to a 4-3 win over Chicago to help keep the Red Wings afloat in the playoff race. Dylan Larkin also scored as both he and Raymond finished with five shots on goal. Kubalik needs just two more tallies for 20 on the season.

Jake Walman had the fourth Detroit goal, totalling four shots in all, adding a pair of blocks. Since December 14^th, the first time this season Walman skated at least 20 minutes in a game and a span of 34 games, Walman has seven goals, 12 points, 91 shots, 28 hits, and 74 blocks. That works out to 29 points, 219 shots, 68 hits, and 178 blocks every 82 games. Not a bad effort, and some more luck in the assist department would go a long way to helping his long-term fantasy value.

Taylor Raddysh scored twice for Chicago in the loss, one of those coming on the power play. Raddysh is now up to 16 goals and has a legitimate chance to crack 20 in what is a very bad Chicago season.

Robby Fabbri left the game with a lower-body injury and did not return for the final two periods. It is concerning given his injury history.

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As I have been doing all season long in these Ramblings, it is time for a check-in on certain stats. There are a number of resources I use, among them our own Frozen Tools and Natural Stat Trick. Also among them is the tracking data kept by Corey Sznajder. He hand-tracks hundreds of games every year in a variety of stats that are not kept publicly, but are useful for fantasy. The one that keeps getting mentioned here is Scoring Chance Contributions per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (SCC/60). That is simply adding a player's individual scoring chances, their assists on a teammate's scoring chance, and adding them together for a 60-minute rate. Generally speaking, it helps separate players who are driving offence from those that are just along for the ride. Players who drive offence can sustain their play year after year, and finding those guys is valuable.

For now, we are just going to look at forwards, and we're going to look at changes since we last looked at this on Valentine's Day. We are going to limit it to forwards that have at least 100 minutes tracked in the first sample, too, so we can start to get a good idea of where players sit. Clear? Great.

For posterity, here are the top-15 rates of SCC/60 at 5v5 this season (in the red box), and when looking at the names, it's obvious why this might be a statistic to pay attention to:

Alright, with all that out of the way, let's get to some of the biggest changes.

Mitch Marner

It was a tough start to the year for Marner, especially coming off of last season. In 2021-22, he was third in the league in SCC/60 behind only Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes. Now, playing a lot with Matthews a season ago, combined with the season they had, made it make sense that he ranked very highly by this measure. It wasn't the case to start 2022-23 as his SCC/60 dropped by 28% compared to a season ago. Comparatively, his points/60 at 5-on-5 has dropped 24% from a year ago.

He has turned it around of late, though, as he has the biggest SCC/60 change since we last checked in. Marner had a solid mark, and now he's top-25 among forwards in the sample, just behind names like Patrice Bergeron and Jesper Bratt. He also has 10 points at 5-on-5 in his last 10 games, tied for the team lead. It seems as if Marner is finding his offensive game from a year ago, and that should make head-to-head fantasy owners very happy. Now, they just need the rest of the team to get and stay healthy.

Connor McDavid

The thing with McDavid's fantasy value is that a good portion of it is tied to ice time. He'd be a great player no matter what, but the fact he reliably plays 22-23 minutes a night and not 19-20 helps tremendously. It is why his SCC/60 doesn't need to be at the top to still be the most impactful offensive player in the league. However, he has seen the second-largest rise in SCC/60 at 5-on-5 since we last checked in, trailing only Marner in the leap he made. That jump, combined with where McDavid started with, has pushed him to the top of the SCC/60 list. He is now generating the most scoring chances per minute of 5-on-5 ice time, and he's still playing 22-23 minutes a night. It is a terrifying prospect and is one of the reasons why he was 27 points (!) in his last 11 games (!!).

There isn't much to say here except the best in the world might still be getting better. Good luck, the rest of the West.

Casey Mittelstadt

For a guy that isn't a superstar forward, we have to note the improvements made by Mittelstadt. He had a rate to start the season (6.5 SCC/60) that was below average (7.3 SCC/60). He has made great strides in this area, being one of six healthy forwards to add at least 1.2 SCC/60 to their season's total. It has pushed him above the league average, and might be why he's tied for the Buffalo lead in total points at 5-on-5 since the All-Star Game with 11 in 13 contests (same as Dylan Cozens).

This isn't enough from Mittelstadt to say that he's reached another level in his own game, though he's been a decent fantasy streamer of late. More ice time has helped but a lack of top PP minutes, being kept from the team's top stars, and very middling peripherals don't make him an exciting fantasy option. He is someone to pay attention to for 23-24, though. The team is clearly building through its own talent, and he stands to have much better offensive line mates next year. More developments like this and he could be fantasy-relevant in a lot more formats next season.

Logan Couture

It was tough to watch that San Jose-Colorado game on Tuesday night. The Sharks are just completely depleted now, which makes it hard to rely on the SCC/60 jump that Couture made. He had the eighth-largest jump and, like Mittelstadt, went from below average to above average in a month. As a result of this jump, Couture leads the Sharks in 5-on-5 points/60 since the All-Star Game, though it does work out to just seven such points in his last 14 contests. Even with a downturn, though, he should reach 60 points for the first time since 2018-19. Considering he was an after-thought in drafts, and the hits he's added to his profile this year, it has been a successful fantasy campaign for him.

Looking ahead, though, this team is thinned out and a lot is riding on the development of William Eklund. If he can't be a reliable top-6 scorer as soon as October, and Couture/Tomas Hertl are kept on separate lines, what can this team put around Couture to help sustain his fantasy value next year? The summer will be telling but it's not looking great.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

It hasn't been the season some of us (read: me) expected from Oliver Bjorkstrand as his goals, assists, and shots per game are all lower than they were at the end of his prior three seasons. He was someone I thought could take another step next to Matty Beniers or Jaden Schwartz and, well, not quite.

However, it isn't all bad, as Bjorkstrand had the 13^th-largest rise in SCC/60 in the two samples we're looking at, going from roughly league average to roughly the 66^th percentile, or a mid-level second-line scorer. The assists aren't piling up, but he does have four goals in his last 13 games, or roughly a 25-goal pace over a full season. Considering he was on pace for 15 goals as recently as a month ago, it has been an improvement from him. There may not be much outside of a streamer for the rest of 22-23 but it bodes well for him to rebound in 23-24, and he'll offer a nice discount at the draft table.

Cody Glass

The last player we'll mention is one of the better stories of the entire NHL season. This time a year ago, it looked as if Glass was on his way out of the NHL. To date, he has posted 24 points in 51 games, surpassing his entire career points total (23). What's more is that unlike guys like Couture, Mittelstadt, or even Bjorkstrand, he had been posting solid SCC/60 rates all season. Glass's rate a month ago was 8.28, or in the mid-level second-line slotting that Bjorkstrand now finds himself. The improvements made since by Glass has pushed him to 9.16 per 60 minutes, which is the 77^th percentile, or a low-level top-line scoring forward. He is in the neighbourhood of guys like Brock Nelson, Dylan Cozens, and Dylan Larkin. It is pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Like Couture, it's a wonder the level of talent Glass gets to play with next season. Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg, and Roman Josi should still be around, but it's a matter of getting to skate with those guys (particularly the forwards) or not. That Glass has 50 hits in 51 games, combined with his improving offensive prowess, makes him someone to keep in mind for the end of drafts come September.