Frozen Tools Forensics: Top Producers In Recent Weeks Like McCann, Mercer, Orlov, And More

Chris Kane

2023-03-10

We are very much in the home stretch here. Some leagues have already started playoffs, many begin next week. That means if there are changes to make to your team they need to be made now or there might not be another week to do it. It also means we are way less concerned with the long-term value of a player. If they are performing right now, they might be worth a shot. With that idea in mind, we are going to be looking at the most productive players in the league over the last two weeks and identifying players to target.

To get the data for this week I used the Big Board Report. There is a handy filtering drop down that lets you grab data for the last two weeks. I then pulled forward some basic info to a smaller more readable table. To give us a bit more actionable context I also went and grabbed roster percent numbers from Yahoo. I pulled all of the data on 3/8 so there are a lot of NHL teams who will have an extra game, most on Thursday night, that wasn't available to me for this column. The result is the table below.

NamePosTeamRoster %GPPTSSOGTOI
CONNOR MCDAVIDCEDM100%8224422:18
BRAYDEN POINTCT.B92%9142218:35
LEON DRAISAITLCEDM100%8142021:18
MITCH MARNERRTOR100%7131921:02
NIKITA KUCHEROVRT.B100%9123218:42

As far as the table goes, we have player name and basic info, then the ownership percentage they are rostered in Yahoo. The last four columns are all from the two-week sample, so number of games played, total points, shot production, and total time on ice. I selected all of those to give a slightly broader indication of the player's contribution.

Given the percentage rostered numbers above, no one is grabbing these players on the waiver wire, but I did just want to highlight and commiserate with anyone who has played against Connor McDavid over the last two weeks. I managed to get both of his last two weeks, and it was rough.

Our next category of players are definitely shallow streamers. They are currently rostered in 50-67 percent of leagues.

NamePosTeamRoster %GPPTSSOGTOI
DAWSON MERCERRN.J67%7122218:51
JARED MCCANNLSEA50%7102517:44
DMITRY ORLOVDBOS62%69920:38
MAX DOMICDAL54%782717:56
ANDREI KUZMENKOLVAN57%781619:02

Dawson Mercer's name has been floating around a lot over the last several weeks, so if you haven't picked up on it already it is likely too late. There are some leagues where he is still available, but chances are low if your league is still active.

Jared McCann is a very interesting name. Down at 50 percent rostered there is a decent chance he is available. He has had quite the streaky season, and career really, but there is a lot to love about his performance right now. He has five goals on his last 20 shots (averaging four shots per game in his last five), so that isn't going to keep up, but he seems to have settled in with a top line role with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle. He has been up over 17 minutes a night in each of his last five games which has not happened at any other point this season. He has spent many more games with ice time totals at or under 15 minutes than over 17. That ice time has also included over five minutes of power-play time twice in these last five games as well.

Like with Mercer, Dmitry Orlov has hit the headlines both because he was traded and because he put up nine points in his last four games with the Bruins. That pace certainly won't continue, but it looked like he was practicing with the top power-play at last practice and that makes him very interesting (check the Thursday night lines to be sure though). There will be more game data available when this is published, but if he happens to still be available make sure he is on your roster.

Max Domi is another interesting case. He has performed well being a go-to guy in Chicago and was on a complete tear before his trade. He has a goal and six shots to his name thus far in Dallas, but is playing a reduced role on the second line and power-play. This is a case where he makes the list because of his hot play in Chicago, but if you are looking for someone to drop to make a desperation play in a matchup Domi should be a consideration.

Now we move on to the 25-50 percent rostered category.

NamePosTeamRoster %GPPTSSOGTOI
ALEX KILLORNRT.B29%9101517:00
NICK SCHMALTZRARI36%791218:04
T.J. OSHIERWSH35%781617:01
MIKE MATHESONDMTL36%872724:58
MATTY BENIERSCSEA38%771217:02
DAVID KREJCICBOS28%66717:33

The rostership numbers here are pretty surprising. Alex Killorn has been in and out of lineups, but was on the top power-play as of 3/7, so is always worth a look when he gets that deployment.

I am not sure what else needs to be said about Nick Schmaltz at this point. Sure, he plays for the Coyotes, but in addition to his nine points in the last seven games he has 24 points over his last 18. Sure, his shooting percentage is a little high, and he is only shooting twice per game without much else going on for peripherals, but 24 points in 18 games is a 110 point pace. How is a player putting up a 110-point pace over his last 18 games on the waiver wire? If your league counts points he should be rostered.

The other player I really wanted to mention here is Mike Matheson. Montreal isn't a great team, but he is the top power-play quarterback, is getting almost 25 minutes a night, is on a 53 point pace, has seven straight games with three or more shots, is almost a point per game over his last nine games, plus has some hits and blocks to go with it? If you roster D in your league take a long hard look at Matheson.

Finally, we turn to players rostered in less than 25 percent of leagues.

NamePosTeamRoster %GPPTSSOGTOI
TOMMY NOVAKCNSH<25%77916:18
CAM FOWLERDANA<25%77722:45
JACK QUINNRBUF<25%971614:25
DYLAN STROMECWSH<25%771316:17
JADEN SCHWARTZLSEA<25%772018:04
CASEY MITTELSTADTLBUF<25%971715:07

Some quick hits from this group:

Tommy Novak had a good start to this period, but only one point in his last four, and is averaging less than a shot per game over those four games. He is still getting time with Matt Duchene and even strength and on what I suppose is a top power-play, but unless the shot rates improve I think there are more exciting options.

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With John Klingberg gone, Cam Fowler is back on the top power-play in Anaheim. He has had a good run, but not shooting much, and not contributing many other peripherals. He certainly is an option and if you have rostered him over the past two weeks you have benefitted, but he would be a distant second to Matheson above in terms of potentially available D.

Dylan Strome and Jaden Schwartz fit sort of the same bucket for me. Worth a look depending on how they are performing, but have been cold/inconsistent several times throughout the year. Both have had some success recently, but don't appear to be getting ideal deployment. Strome's value was highest with top power-play and top line with Alex Ovechkin which he has mostly lost since the return of Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson. Schwartz has bounced around a bit as Seattle has shuffled lines but with the McCann and Beniers line getting increased looks Schwartz has seen a bit less time both at even strength and on the power-play.

Jack Quinn is interesting in that he has been skating on the top line with Alex Tuch out. Like with Novak he was more productive at the start of this time period than in the last four games, but he does have a few more shots to his name which certainly helps. While neither are blowing it out of the water in the last few games I might lean Quinn over Novak for now.

Finally, we have a list of some highly rostered players who are also very cold. Are these players to drop in desperation?

NamePosTeamRoster %GPPTSSOGTOI
ALEX PIETRANGELODVGK94%811523:19
NOAH DOBSONDNYI91%621718:48
BO HORVATCNYI91%621721:13
JOHNNY GAUDREAULCBJ90%731418:47
MATS ZUCCARELLORMIN89%821620:41
JONATHAN HUBERDEAURCGY88%841316:12
ELIAS LINDHOLMCCGY88%831617:35
DYLAN LARKINCDET85%831817:08
JORDAN KYROURSTL78%732518:57
NIKOLAJ EHLERSLWPG78%721715:01

On the whole, and in any given week, most of these players are more likely to put up points than a random streamer. They predominantly still have high time on ice, and strong deployment. That being said, if you are in a playoff matchup and they have no remaining games, or one game compared to a lesser player's two or three then the math might start to add up.

On this list my most likely drop candidates are Alex Pietrangelo (not on the top power-play), Noah Dobson (inconsistent production all season), and Jonathan Huberdeau (I mean it is surprising his percentage rostered is still this high after the season he has had) from a production standpoint (obviously your D provide other categories so take that into consideration). I am also looking at Jordan Kyrou and Nikolaj Ehlers. With Ehlers' inconsistent deployment you just might not have time to wait for it to change again, and Kyrou is likely being impacted by the exodus of talent in St. Louis. Ideally these players see a rebound, but if you are getting desperate and say a McCann is available with two games vs one from Kyrou or Ehlers? Maybe take that bet.

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2 Comments

  1. michaelgee33 2023-03-10 at 13:50

    Would you advise dropping or keeping Verhaeghe? I have a matchup next week and winner of that takes the bye week for playoffs. He won’t make my lineup all next week for that matchup due to having Brady Tkachuk and Marchand playing on the same nights, so he won’t make my roster until March 20 for 1 game that week and then his next game for me would be March 27. LW options right now on waiver wire include Bunting, Zucker, Ehlers, Jarvis, Reilly Smith so there is some decent talent left.

    • Chris Kane 2023-03-11 at 10:45

      I would certainly consider it. It is a little hard to advise without a little more league context, but both Jarvis and Bunting have potentially decent deployment and Ehlers the highest upside though is in a little bit of a slump at the moment. I would take a look at how many games you are going to get from the free agents and balance the addition of those games versus value once Verhaeghe returns. You certainly don’t want to be in a position where you lose because of Verhaeghe’s schedule.

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