Saturday’s Picks/Props: Ride the Hot Hand in Kucherov

Flip Livingstone

2023-03-11

Welcome back inside the lab, everyone, to another week of Saturday NHL bets where we try to put a little bit of money in our pockets while taking in our favorite game on our favorite day of the week.

We're entering a stretch of the NHL betting schedule where teams across the league begin to really shape their defensive games into postseason-like form, with games featuring tight checking and a dedication to responsible play in teams' own ends while the physical intensity and fierce competitive nature of this sport ratchets up about eight notches (this is not an official number).

For all you bettors out there, this could result in a lot of close one-goal or two-goal games, impacting spread bets, with the increased potential for more matchups to stay UNDER the number. With that in mind we attack today's absolutely loaded 15-game board, as the Calgary Flames and Anaheim Ducks are the only two teams not in action Saturday.

As always, good luck and enjoy the show.

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Flip Livingstone's Picks

Gold Selection
New York Rangers @ Buffalo Sabres – Pick: Rangers ML (-155)

The New York Rangers were obviously one of the clubs that came out of the NHL trade deadline as big winners, reeling in two elite offensive pieces in Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane. Two players that, if they can continue to settle in and build chemistry, will give the Blueshirts one of the most balanced scoring attacks in the NHL. As it stands, the Rangers are on a first-round collision course with the New Jersey Devils and even though catching either the Devils or Hurricanes is likely out of the question, I think we see this Rangers team round into form down the stretch to maintain a stranglehold on the third spot in the Metro Division.

With that said comes a prime opportunity to secure that spot tonight with a trip into Buffalo to tangle with a Sabres team currently on a three-game slide and one that is really struggling to score goals right now. Sure, New York is experiencing some growing pains as well, registering only three wins over its last 10, but I trust in Gerard Gallant and this roster Chris Drury has assembled. Aside from the dominant 9-0-1 record the Rangers own against the Sabres over their last 10 meetings, the main reason I am backing New York here on the road is what I have (or haven't) been seeing from this Buffalo group over the last few weeks.

The key contributing factor why Buffalo sits within striking distance of an Eastern Conference wild-card spot has been its ability to score goals with the best in the NHL this season, as the Sabres currently sit third overall in league scoring. But lately, this group is struggling to put pucks in the back of the net, which has resulted in some tough finishes and only a single victory this month.

New York has hung a 12-spot of goals on the Sabres over their most-recent three meetings and I like that and the overall trend of Rangers dominance to continue this evening. The puck drops on this one at 5 p.m. EST, so make sure you get your bets in on time. Rangers on the moneyline for my Gold Pick of the night.

Silver Selection
Nikita Kucherov Over 1.5 Points Assist (-110)

When you think about the most consistent offensive producers over the past decade Nikita Kucherov might not jump to the front of your brain ahead of some bigger NHL names like Ovechkin, Crosby, and McDavid, but it really should.

When healthy, Kucherov is a top-10 player and a critical reason why this Tampa Bay Lightning team has made three-straight trips to the Stanley Cup Final and has come home with two banners for the Amalie Arena rafters. Speaking of Amalie Arena, the Lightning are dominant at home this season, failing to earn a point in only five out of 33 contests on home ice this season.

What I am trying to get at here is the visiting Chicago Blackhawks, on the second night of a tough back-to-back in South Florida, are in a really bad spot. Conversely, I absolutely love this position for the Lightning to have a big-time offensive outburst with Kucherov as the straw that stirs the drink. Speaking of Kuch, the Russian talisman has put up consecutive three-point games and is picking up steam at the precise time his Tampa teammates need him to.

Straight up, Kucherov has looked lethal over the last 120 minutes of hockey and I really want to ride this hot hand while I can – especially against this Hawks team that's allowed the seventh-most goals in the NHL this season. Lastly, I wanted to quickly mention Kucherov's track record over his career against Chicago, as the veteran, future Hall-of-Famer owns solid numbers in 15 regular-season games to the tune of five goals and 10 assists. Kucherov stays hot with a multi-point game at home for my Silver Pick.

Bronze Selection
Vegas Golden Knights @ Carolina Hurricanes – Pick: UNDER 6.5 (-135)

You thought I was going to show up on a Saturday for Dobber Hockey's picks and not sprinkle a little wager on a total? No you didn't – and for good reason. I have been hitting my total bets with the highest frequency of any of my picks this season. Let's keep that running with the total that jumped off the page for me this week and that's the Golden Knights on the road to tangle with arguably the most defensively sound group in the NHL in the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Canes sit second in total goals against, second in goals-against per game, and first in shots allowed per game at a seriously impressive mark of only 25.8 shots. As for the Knights, they're one of the top defensive clubs in the league, too, as Vegas sits in the top 10 in the above three categories and are getting solid goaltending despite injuries of varying severity and timing to Robin Lehner, Logan Thompson, and most recently, to their default No. 1 Adin Hill.

Both of these teams have solid goaltending and play a defense-first brand of hockey and the numbers back that notion up and point to this one staying UNDER the total. The total has stayed UNDER the number in 11 of Vegas' last 14 road games and UNDER the total in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games overall. This one looks, smells, and feels like an UNDER, so let's tease it up to 6.5 and hammer some decent odds.

Side Bets
Chicago Blackhawks @ Tampa Bay Lightning – Pick: Lightning PL -1.5
New Jersey Devils @ Montreal Canadiens – Pick: OVER 6.5
Edmonton Oilers @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Oilers ML

2022-23 Saturday Record Breakdown (Complete Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks)
Gold: 7-3
Silver: 6-4
Bronze: 6-4
Side bets: 19-9-2

Total Saturday Record: 38-20-2

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting and fantasy hockey writer and podcast host with past experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @Flips_Picks.

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Brad Hayward's Picks

Gold Selection
Detroit Red Wings @ Boston Bruins – Pick:  Bruins cover -1.5 goals (-145)

The Bruins at home, after giving up a loss, in an afternoon game, and against Magnus Hellberg…. easy pickings and a surprisingly decent line. I was tempted to pick the over here, but the chance that Detroit nets only zero or one, makes that play harder. The B's last afternoon game at TD Garden was a 6-0 whitewash of the Flyers. The Wings, for my detractors, managed 11 goals in their most recent home-and-home matchup with Vancouver. Different animal here.  Side Bet #1:  Tyler Bertuzzi, over 1.5 shots on goal.  I predicted in my Thursday article that Bertuzzi wouldn't stay on the Bruins' third line for long, and voila he's playing opposite David Pastrnak against his former mates. One shot in two games? That won't last either.

Silver Selection
Ottawa Senators @ Vancouver Canucks – Pick: Over 6.5 goals scored (-150)

Ottawa is a delightful fantasy mix of elite offensive talent and porous defense.  And with both Cam Talbot and Anton Forsberg on the shelf, Mads Sogaard can only do so much.  Elias Pettersson has clearly hit his stride, Andrei Kuzmenko's 30 goals looks like a Calder winner (alas, not eligible), and the 'Nucks have scored three or more times in eight of their last ten contests.   Add to this the usual candidates from the capital city plus Jakob Chychrun and you get a barnburner worth staying up late for.  These guys realistically are playing for individual stats (sorry, Ottawa) at this time of year. 

Bronze Selection
Nashville Predators @ Los Angeles Kings – Pick: Viktor Arvidsson, over 2.5 shots

The past 30 days, to look at individual shot totals, we have the usual suspects: Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Matthew Tkachuk, you know these guys. But right up there is Arvidsson with an average of 6 SOG/GP over his past 5 GP. 2.5 ? A steal. BUT, since DraftKings, based in Boston, cuts off the odds for the 10:30 pm ET game's shot totals (to advertise themselves of course), I'll have to leave my money on the table. Side bet #2: That same Arvidsson to score a point, also playing against his previous team (-130)

Side Bet #3:  Buffalo shocks Jaroslav Halak and the Rangers (+125)

Season stats:
Gold – 7-3-0
Silver – 3-6-1
Bronze – 5-5-0
Side bets – 18-9-0
Parlay bets – 1-2, but I only won the one I actually put money on, so maybe quit while I'm ahead. 

Good luck to all.

Brad Hayward writes a weekly DFS column for Dobber Hockey, and is a recently-retired surgeon.  Message him @dokhockey

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
MIRO HEISKANEN DAL
LUKE HUGHES N.J
MIKA ZIBANEJAD NYR
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
SEMYON VARLAMOV NYI
CAM TALBOT DET
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CBJ Players
28.8 DMITRI VORONKOV SEAN MONAHAN KIRILL MARCHENKO
22.4 COLE SILLINGER MATHIEU OLIVIER KENT JOHNSON
14.8 JAMES VAN RIEMSDYK ADAM FANTILLI ZACHARY ASTON-REESE

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