The Journey: Montreal’s Multi-Cat Unicorn

Ben Gehrels

2023-03-11

Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom. This week, we will strive to answer a question on the tips of an increasing number of people's tongues: Who is Rafael Harvey-Pinard?

Over 21 NHL games since donning a Habs jersey in mid-January, Harvey-Pinard, 24, has generated one of the more intriguing stat lines in the league: while scoring at just below a 50-point pace, he has also put up just under two shots, hits, and blocks per game.

If that sounds like a lot of blocks for a forward, it is: his 6.6 Blocks/60 is tied for 15th overall and leads all forwards by a healthy margin. Only four other forwards have even 5.0 Blocks/60 or above, and none of those players are on pace for more than 23 points—less than half Harvey-Pinard's. A forward who can score 50 points and post 150 shots, hits, and blocks per year is not only rosterable but quite desirable in most formats.

Small sample size aside, that category coverage exemplifies how Harvey-Pinard plays the game: he is committed to defence, unafraid to dive in front of opponent's shots or throw the body, and driven to keep battling no matter what. That commitment to driving play in all three zones is particularly notable because the main knock on his game to this point—other than his 5-9 frame—has apparently been his skating.

Even if his skating tops out at around NHL average, he is still not likely to blow by defenders at the highest level, so it would seem tempting to look for ways to gain slight advantages, like hovering by the blue line instead of getting down in front of a slap shot. But RHP clearly isn't one to cut corners. In fact, down in the AHL with Montreal's affiliate, he has become known as "Lavallagher" (Laval's Brendan Gallagher) because of his scrappy, never-give-up approach to the game.

Here he is in the Q about half a year after being drafted in late 2019: https://twitter.com/Scouching/status/1204999606167392256?s=20

He pursues the attacking forward deep into the defensive zone, smoothly strips the puck, then blows through the neutral zone with a quick deke, and enters the offensive zone with speed in possession. He is almost able to drive to the net directly but the defenseman manages to direct the puck into the corner. While many plays would die at that point, Harvey-Pinard maintains possession and makes a clean pass back to the point to an open teammate. Just like that, he has turned a scoring chance for the other team into a couple quality chances the other way.

I'm no scout, and that clip was from a junior-level game four years ago, but he certainly doesn't look slow to me. And that characteristic tenaciousness is on full display. It certainly is perplexing that he was passed over in the draft two years in a row before finally being selected by Montreal in the seventh round in 2019 on the strength of an impressive 85 points in 66 QMJHL games. He then spent a fourth season in the top Quebec league before making the jump to the Rockets, where he put up 101 points in 142 AHL games across three seasons before earning his first NHL call up last year when the Canadiens were decimated by injuries.

Now "Lavallagher" has earned a spot on Montreal's top line alongside Nick Suzuki and is currently sporting the highest expected goals per sixty (xG/60) rate on the team—even higher than Cole Caufield's. Again, this is a tiny sample, so regression should be expected over a full season, but although he is currently mired in a bit of a cold streak (one point in his last seven games), he had a remarkable 11 points in 14 games (64-point pace) before that after getting called up.

Digging deeper, the Gallagher comparisons seem spot on. At his peak, Gallagher potted 30 goals, added 20 assists, and took 3.5 shots, 1.5 hits, and 0.5 blocks per game. Assuming we continue to see progression from him, Harvey-Pinard might just have a chance to put up numbers like these—though likely with fewer shots and more hits and blocks. He has made a strong case to stick with the Habs moving forward and has been rewarded with favourable deployment and a ton of ice time (almost 17 minutes per game), including 30% of available shifts with the man advantage.

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If the Gallagher projections hold true, Harvey-Pinard likely tops out as an Average Producer—still useful in fantasy, especially with those peripherals, but expectations that he will score 65+ next year should definitely be tempered. Hockey Prospecting gives him a 0% chance of averaging 55+ points over his career, for instance, and his most promising comparables in terms of historical trajectory are guys like Michael Ryder, Yanni Gourde, Adam Lowry, Colton Sissons, and Alex Iafallo—skilled, utility-knife players who feature on top lines for short stretches and score a bit and churn out steady peripherals no matter where they play. If the Canadiens managed to score a player like that with a seventh-round pick, that is a serious win for the organization.

If you had told me before the season that a small, tenacious forward would get called up from Laval mid-year and have this kind of impact, I would have bet money on that player being Xavier Simoneau. In fact, writing this article about Harvey-Pinard, I had to keep reminding myself that I wasn't writing about Simoneau, who is actually shorter (5-6) and younger (21) but plays with a similar intensity, physicality, and compete level.

Simoneau is in the midst of a strong rookie season with Laval after absolutely dominating his Draft+1 QMJHL season to the tune of nearly two points per game. He has projected better than RHP all along, mostly due to age, and likely has a higher point ceiling than his teammate.

The prospect of these two playing together in Montreal's top nine as soon as 2023-24 is very, very enticing—both for Habs fans and fantasy managers alike. To some extent, they represent a new brand of smaller player in the league. Whereas the Brayden Points and Torey Krugs of the world have generally beat the odds with speed and skill, Harvey-Pinard and Simoneau excel by doing a little bit of everything, never taking breaks, and making life difficult for their opponents.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.

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