Heading into Monday night's game against Toronto, the Buffalo Sabres had lost six of their last seven games, going 1-5-1 in that stretch. They had games in hand on the teams above them, and still do, but they're now seven points back of a playoff spot and even winning all the games in hand they have on the Islanders wouldn't get them to the postseason. It should be noted that Buffalo has been without Alex Tuch for eight games, which encompasses that stretch. They got some good news on that front:

Well-attended optional skate for the #Sabres. Rasmus Dahlin and Alex Tuch are on the ice.

— Bill Hoppe (@BillHoppeNHL) March 13, 2023

Rasmus Dahlin has been nicked up and missed a couple games over the last few weeks. Both Dahlin and Tuch played on Monday night.

Buffalo came back from a 2-0 deficit late in the second period to Toronto, taking a 4-2 lead midway through the third period and holding on for a 4-3 win. Tuch scored twice on five shots, one of them on the power play, adding three hits in over 20 minutes of ice time. Dylan Cozens had a goal and a power-play assist, four shots, and two blocks in the victory. His fantastic season continues. Tage Thompson had an assist and seven shots, but is now goalless in five straight.

Auston Matthews had a goal and two assists on five shots with a hit in over 23 minutes of ice time. He has five goals, 10 points, and 36 shots over his last seven games.

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Artturi Lehkonen managed two goals and an assist in Colorado's 8-4 blowout of Montreal on Monday night but left the game after the second period, not to return. The performance officially gave him his first career 20-goal season, but the bad news came as the team announced a broken finger and pending surgery. There is no timeline yet but an extended absence could leak into the playoffs.

Valeri Nichushkin had a three-point game with a goal and two assists, adding two hits for good measure. He now has 11 power-play points in 36 games after posting nine in 62 games during his breakout season a year ago. Cale Makar had three assists, all on the man advantage, giving him 20 power-play helpers on the season (25 PPPs in total) through 52 games. He has 59 PPPs in his last 129 games. Both Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen had a goal and an assist on five shots each, with MacKinnon adding a couple PIMs. Bowen Byram also scored, totalling two shots, seven PIMs, and two hits.

Josh Anderson had a goal and an assist in the loss, hitting 20 goals himself for the second time in his career (though he has hit 19 in 60-odd games twice before). Mike Matheson, mentioned later in this Ramblings, had a goal on two shots, two blocks, and had two PIMs.

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Some bad new for Chicago:

#Blackhawks shut down Cole Guttman for rest of season with shoulder injury: https://t.co/hne91JCaU0

— Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) March 13, 2023

Though not a fantasy staple, he did have six points and 24 shots over his last 12 games, showing well on the second line for the Blackhawks. He may have earned himself a roster spot in 2023-24, though what the team looks like in September is an open question.

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Vancouver signed college forward Aidan McDonough to a two-year, entry-level contract. He will report to the Canucks now, burning his first year off the ELC, meaning 2023-24 will be his only real campaign on an ELC. His Dobber Prospects profile can be found here. This is not a prospect that screams fantasy value just yet but there is a spot next to JT Miller that could change things. We will see where he slots when he arrives.

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There were only a few games in the NHL on Monday night, so it gives us time to look at some stats and data across the league. My last handful of Ramblings written in this manner has largely covered forwards, so let's focus more on defencemen today. We are going to key in on one specific stat, and it's simply a blue liner's shot attempt rate at all strengths. There are lots of indicators of potential fantasy value, and shots are near the top of the list. Over the last three seasons, the top-10 rearguards by shot attempt rate are Dougie Hamilton, Roman Josi, Jakob Chychrun, Evan Bouchard, Shea Theodore, Noah Dobson, Cale Makar, Alex Pietrangelo, Brent Burns, and Victor Hedman. In fact, the only defenceman in the top-20 by shot rate that hasn't been a consistent fantasy producer for a few seasons is Nicolas Hague, and he's been very useful this year in multi-cat formats because of his hit/block totals. Shots aren't everything – Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox are very useful fantasy options despite meagre shot totals – but they can be a very positive indicator of offensive potential.

To that end, let's look at some shot rates at all strengths from 2022-23 defencemen. We aren't going to talk about the usual suspects like Josi, Hamilton, or Makar; they're too obvious. We are going to look at less-obvious names whether it be a full-season sample, or perhaps a recent increase that could portend good things in the 2023-24 season. Data will be from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated, and as of Monday afternoon. The sample will be limited to blue liners with at least 750 minutes of ice time this season, which gives us 176 players, or over five per team. We are also going to limit ourselves to the top-28 defencemen (including ties) to ensure we're looking solely at defenders at least one standard deviation above the average shot attempt rate of 9.68 per 60 minutes.

Brandon Montour

Perhaps he is a bit obvious, but when a player resurrects their career at the age of 28 to not only ensure their future in the NHL, but to be a top-end fantasy option, it's worth noting. He is sitting at 14.03 shot attempts/60 on the year, which leaves him 10^th in our sample, and ahead of even Aaron Ekblad. With 192 shots, he's already surpassed his prior career high of 181 through 82 games in 2018-19, and Florida has 15 games left. The power-play points are obviously a big key here, but this makes five straight seasons of increasing shot rates from Montour. Going from an after-thought to one of the top per-minute shooters in a span of three years is simply a remarkable turnaround.

The big question is what to do moving forward. Montour has one year left after this one and then he's a free agent. Does he play another 100 regular season games for Florida, or is he off elsewhere? There should be questions about his assist totals, but as long as he skates 24 minutes a night with PP1 time, there isn't much reason to assume a crash in fantasy value.

Brady Skjei

The second Carolina defenceman in the top-15 – Burns is fourth – is Brady Skjei, sitting just shy of 13.8 shot attempts/60 minutes, nestled between Miro Heiskanen and Ekblad. (Heiskanen is someone that belongs on this list, but I want to do a deeper dive on him, so keep an eye on Ramblings later this week for that.) That rate for Skjei represents a 20% increase from 2021-22, which was a career-best mark for him at the time. His problem is that the increased shot attempt rate hasn't led to more shots on goal as he’s missed the net more this year (56% of the time) than last (44%) and that difference has meant static shots-per-game totals.

The big problem with Skjei's fantasy value over the years are his assists. Over the prior three seasons, he averaged 21.6 assists every 82 games, with none of them coming on the PP. This season, he has 15 helpers in 64 games, including three PPPs. He is typically not a playmaking defenceman, and that'll keep his fantasy value muted. However, if he can maintain this shot attempt rate, and start hitting the net, he's easily a 200-plus-shot defenceman. With decent peripherals, double-digit goals, and 20-some assists, his multi-cat value is rising.

Arber Xhekaj

Even as someone who buries themselves in stats, it's still a lot of fun to watch certain hockey players, and Xhekaj is certainly one of them. He shoots, he hits, he scores, he fights. It's awesome. He hasn't played in a month, though, so we could be forgiven for not remembering everything he brought to the table. Yes, he was physical, but he also came in 16^th on our list of 176 defencemen by shot attempt rate at 13.02, settling between Jacob Trouba and Hedman. He didn't get much ice time at 15:16 a night, and it's partly why he posted just 1.5 shots per game. The other part is the same problem as Skjei, which is hitting the net: Xhekaj missed on over 55% of his shot attempts (league average is about 52.7%). It might not sound like a lot, but even at 15 minutes a night, it's an extra shot every 10 games. If he were ever to get more ice time, that effect is magnified.

Like many of the Montreal skaters this year, Xhekaj's future with the team is uncertain. He didn't have much overlap with Mike Matheson, and every Habs defenceman is under contract for at least one more year. For right now, it's hard to see him having much more fantasy value than he had in his 51 games in 2021-22, but extended for a full season. Like many of the Montreal skaters this year, though, this is a long-term project and meagre point totals should keep his cap hit low for many years to come. Rejoice, you multi-cat cap leaguers.

Jake Walman

Given all the digital ink spilled on Walman by myself and other writers here at the site, we won't go into heavy detail right now. Just know that Walman falls inside the top-20 by shot attempt rate, between Hedman and Matheson, which is funny because this season (12.95 shot attempts/60) is actually a three-year low for him in shot attempt rate. In limited action over the prior two seasons, he was in the 96^th percentile, whereas this season he's 89^th percentile. Still great, mind you, just a notable drop. I'm sure fantasy owners will take regular usage at 20 minutes a night as the trade-off.

Mike Matheson

At the risk of stuffing the list with Montreal defencemen, it is noticeable how good Matheson has been lately. In 15 games since the All-Star break, Matheson has 11 points (two PPPs), 38 shots, 21 hits, and 29 blocks. That is very good production and on the season as a whole, he sneaks just inside the top-20 by shot attempt rate even if he's seen limited game action.

When looking at Matheson's 32 games in a Montreal uniform, he's been very productive with five goals 14 assists, five PPPs, 77 shots, 47 blocks, and 45 hits. Over 80 games, that works out to about 13 goals, 35 assists, 13 PPPs, 193 shots, 118 blocks, and 113 hits. If he reached those numbers, they'd be career-best marks in goals, assists, shots, and hits. Despite playing for a very bad team, he's having a very good season, and is someone to keep in mind when sitting at the draft table in September or October.

Kevin Shattenkirk

We won't spend much time here as Shattenkirk's time as a useful fantasy option is running out, but it's notable that he's in the 86^th percentile for shot attempt rate this season at 12.28 per 60 minutes. It is a four-year-high for him, and his second-highest mark in the last eight seasons. It is notable because he plays on an Anaheim team that is one of the worst offensive teams not only in the league this season, but in general when comparing them to other teams in recent campaigns. Now that John Klingberg is gone, Shattenkirk's shot attempt rate is over 40% higher than the next-closest Ducks blue liner. The soon-to-be 35-year-old defenceman is a UFA this summer, so keep an eye on where he lands.  

Nils Lundkvist

The last guy we'll discuss is NilS Lundkvist, who is wrapping up his first season in a Dallas uniform. He has been a healthy scratch at times recently as the team marches towards the postseason, and that's not a great sign. However, with the defence Jani Hakanpää can provide, Ryan Suter's veteran presence (i.e. contract), and the lineup staples, Lundkvist was always going to fight for a bottom-of-the-roster role unless he took a massive leap forward in his development. On the bright side, he still got lots of experience this season, should get more games by the end of the campaign, and there are good signs here. For example, Evolving Hockey has his even strength expected goals for impact at the top of all Dallas defencemen, and in the 73^rd percentile across the league. His shot attempt rate (12.08/60) is right on the border of a standard deviation above the league average, and exceeds names like Rasmus Dahlin and Josh Morrissey. Unfortunately, the team is shooting 7.5% with him on the ice, last among all Dallas defencemen by a good margin (Suter is next-lowest at 8.5%). His playmaking skills aren't up to par yet but there are signs of life here. Give him a couple seasons to really settle in.