Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a points only, dynasty salary cap league, how would the following youngsters rank: Kent Johnson, Cole Perfetti, Lucas Raymond?

First off, salary is basically a non-factor, as all three are set to be RFAs after 2023-24. Sure, it might come to be that one or more sign huge deals at that time if not before, but we can't let that factor into the decision for the time being.

What was unclear from the post is whether positions matter. In Yahoo, Perfetti is eligible at all three positions, while Raymond is a RW only and Johnson is a LW and RW. I'd say that if one of them was only eligible at center, for example, that would be a drawback; however, with that not being the case this too probably isn't a factor, even assuming positions do actually matter and it's not just a league with them all lumped together as forwards "F".

All three have found their way into their respective team's top-six, although Raymond has more of what I'd call a vice grip on a top six spot versus the other two. Or does he? When you think about it, Winnipeg is aging and Columbus lacks offensive firepower, so I think it's probably safe to say all three should have top six "spots" sewn up going forward.

Where Raymond does enjoy an advantage is in PP deployment, as the other two are not on PP1. Granted, Raymond's PP1 minutes had slipped such that he was taking the ice on PP2 at times. The key is in Detroit even that resulted in him taking the ice for close to 50% of his team's man advantage minutes, versus the other two who've been getting mainly scraps this season. For Johnson, that's a bit of a concern since Columbus isn't exactly brimming with talent like Winnipeg is, giving Perfetti at least an excuse as to why he's not on PP1.

What I don't like to see is Raymond's SOG rate down, although he's still mostly kept up his scoring pace. Perfetti has shown flashes of strong play too though. Johnson fared well out of the gate but has not been strong of late; yet his ice time is still increasing with each quarter, in contrast to the other two, who've been steady (Perfetti) or had a slight decline (Raymond).

I worry though about what I read in a recent Ramblings, which is that Dylan Larkin plays far better when not alongside Raymond. With Larkin the unquestioned franchise player after inking a new deal, that might mean a ticket to the second line at ES and/or on the PP for Raymond.

To me, this is pretty close. I kind of like Perfetti's situation the most. He can learn the ropes alongside Winnipeg's veterans, then be ready to shine when it's his time. Johnson should do fine, and Raymond has home run potential. But if I'm choosing between the three, I'm going with Perfetti as the safest bet.

Topic #2 – In a 10 Team Yahoo Keep 5 H2H league which scores G, A, PPP, SOG, HITS, BLKS, W, GAA, SV%, SAVES, who is the better own: Tage Thompson (C/RW) or Elias Pettersson (C/LW)?

I will start by saying what I've said anytime I've discussed Thompson this season, which is that I'm worried about his durability and production given his size. Like it or not, most centers who are elite are in the 5'10'' to 6'4'' range. Less than that, and you have to go back to the days of Daniel Briere and Derek Roy to find two who had substantial fantasy success. I's even worse for giants like the 6'6'' Thompson, as the best two centers who were that tall or taller in the past 20 years were Martin Hanzal and Nik Antropov. What did both have in common? Injury issues that plagued them most of their career. Sure – it might've had nothing to do with their height; however, even lesser talented centers that tall also had injury issues, like Brian Boyle and Nick Bjugstad. Beyond that, none of them produced anywhere near as well as Thompson is now. Granted, someone like Mats Sundin was only an inch shorter and had a HOF career, so perhaps an inch doesn't matter. Still, I'd feel a lot better about Thompson's long-term prospects if past comparables hadn't fared so poorly.

As for Pettersson, for starters his team is in shambles. Still, that doesn't mean he can't keep scoring in droves, as if he's been able to do so thus far I don't see any reason why he couldn't continue to even if Vancouver remains a train wreck as an organization and other players fall short of expectations. What I like most about his improvement this season is his SOG rate is way up yet his SH% is barely lower and still quite high. The issue though is he still hasn't found success on the man advantage, as every forward ahead of him in scoring has at least 50% more PPPts, with most having double or nearly double. It could be argued that means EP is all the better to bank on since he has room to improve in that area. But the problem is he's never had success on the PP in his career, and I fear it will continue to plague him. If we look at the players who scored 100+ points without 25+ PPPts in the same season, we get Connor McDavid in 2017-18, who couldn't be blamed since his team converted on just 14.8% of their man advantage opportunities that season, and Johnny Gaudreau last season, and Gaudreau has come back to earth in a big way. There are concerns with respect to EP as well, just as there are with Thompson.

Looking at other stats besides scoring, EP's banger stats are better, yet Thompson exceeds EP in SOG and, of course, PPPts. It's a wash. In fact, it's pretty close overall – so much so that I think it boils down to team and positional eligibility. If given the choice, I want the guy who is RW eligible rather than LW eligible, as if we go by nhl.com positions, there are twice as many point per game LWs versus RWs. Also, Buffalo seems poised to be an offensive powerhouse for many seasons to come, while who knows where the chips will fall for the Canucks.

What I'd do is keep Thompson but plan on trading him this offseason to capitalize on 2022-23 numbers and not risk him falling victim to the injury bug, which not only would cause him to miss games but, if players like Antropov and Hanzal are any indications, negatively affect his scoring as well. I'd try to turn Thompson into a player like Mitch Marner or David Pastrnak, both of whom are also RWs but who come with less risk.

Topic #3 – In a points only league, who would be the top three players from this group: Nikolaj Ehlers, Max Domi, Travis Konecny, Nick Schmaltz, Filip Chytil, Pavel Zacha, and Ryan O'Reilly for the remainder of 2022-23?

The easy answer first – since this question came in, ROR and Konecny are missing most of the rest of the season.

From the non-injured group, not Zacha. Yes, he's rebounded; but without a spot on PP1 and with his ice time and SOG rate both unremarkable, he's just not in the same echelon as the others on this list. I also cannot put my faith in Domi. Yes, he's played well; however, that was mainly on a Hawks team that, but for Patrick Kane, was a glorified AHL squad. I realize he's motivated to succeed due to being an impending UFA; but he can't be the pick in view of the other choices.

The ends up leaving the final three. Chytil is doing good things; however, the Rangers seem hell bent on keeping the kid line together, which means Chytil remains outside of the top six and not on PP1. Yes, their PP2 might rival many teams' PP1; but Chytil can't do enough in the role he's being placed; and since this is just for the rest of 2022-23 if it wasn't for the injuries, he wouldn't have been picked.

For the sake of being thorough, let's assume Konecny and ROR were healthy. That means we need to make one more cut from Ehlers, Konecny, Schmaltz and ROR.

Despite him falling off his earlier pace, we've seen enough from Konecny to suggest he's turned a corner and is now a genuine top line, PP1 player. I feel he would've earned a spot among the top three. Although when healthy Schmaltz is among the quietest solid producers, health is the big question mark. Ehlers, on the other hand, has already missed time and for a while was playing great but then went cold. He finally got his chance to be truly in the top line, top PP mix and he's basically blowing it. Still, Ehlers does find a way to score, and even if he would produce slightly less than Schmaltz if both were healthy, that is a big if when talking about Schmaltz. With all due respect to Schmaltz, I would've taken Ehlers and Konecny to go along with ROR. Due to all the injuries though, the final three end up being Chytil, Ehlers, and Schmaltz.

Topic #4 – In a league where defensemen scoring is G (3.5), A (2), SOG (0.1), HIT (0.1), BLK (0.1), how do the following rank over the next 2-3 seasons: John Carlson, Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, Thomas Chabot, Charlie McAvoy?

One thing to note right off the bat is that although SOG, HIT and BLK are categories, they're not very impactful. It'd be one thing if goals and assists weren't weighted, or if we were considering someone like Jacob Trouba or Darnell Nurse. But these are d-men whose bread and butter is scoring, such that none will stand head and shoulders above the rest in these areas, when all are taken into collective consideration.

Given that, I've got Chabot in last here. Every season comes and goes and his scoring doesn't budge. He tantalized poolies with his huge second season; however, he's weak on the PP and he just doesn't factor into the scoring enough to be in the same conversation as the rest of this group. That's without even factoring in the very real possibility that Jakub Chychrun or even Jake Sanderson start to eat away at some of his PP time, hurting him in the process.

I also think that McAvoy isn't in this echelon. For one, he's a Band-Aid Boy, but also he doesn't shoot much at all, to the point where it's difficult to see him becoming a consistent 70 point threat. Although Boston locked up David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci could still retire, leaving the Bs depleted. McAvoy is a fine d-man, but he seems to be elevated by his situation more so than his talent. For this reason, plus what already said, and despite his HIT and BLK being strong and him being the youngest of them all, he's not in the conversation as to who the best of this group might be.

I'm also growing more concerned about John Carlson. He's 33 years old; and although there's no question he's skilled, as shown by his SOG rate this season being his highest ever, his scoring wasn't boosted due to Washington finally starting to show their age as a team. Make no mistake – Carlson's scoring was boosted by being "the guy" on the blueline for all of their past offensive glory years. But now that those days appear to be ending, and so too might be his as a 70+ point blueliner.

In third place is Hedman. Given what we've seen from Mikhail Sergachev when he's had a chance to be "the guy", and in view of his now big contract, that takes some of the veneer off Hedman. And for all the rightful praise Hedman has received, his scoring rate had been in the 60s four straight seasons prior to 2021-22, so that likely is his norm, not what we saw last season, especially with the emergence of Sergachev.

Notwithstanding what we're seeing from him this season, I can't put Karlsson higher than runner up. He's a special player, oozing with talent. We can't deny he's had injury issues and his overall IPP is leaps and bounds ahead of what it's been for several seasons. I think he's benefitting from needing to carry offensive weight in San Jose. Yes, the same could be said about Josi, the reality is Josi doesn't have an injury history, and his scoring story checks out better than Karlsson's.

That puts Josi in the top spot. Formerly a rearguard who could only be counted upon to score in the upper 50s, Josi is now on pace to score 70+ for the third straight season, and his SOG rate is rising despite his age. Beyond those factors, he's on a team where he – and they – know he needs to be dialed into the offense, as the forward talent is not there like it is on most of these other squads. Or to put it another way, if I had to bet my life savings on one of these guys to score at a 70+ point pace in more of the next three seasons than the other, my money would have to be on Josi, as although Karlsson could prove to be more than a one year wonder and Hedman could stave off Sergachev, Josi comes with less uncertainty, and he's my pick.

Topic #5 – In a dynasty with skater categories of G(5), A(4), HT(3), BLK(0.7), HIT(0.7), PPPt(1), SOG(0.7), TK(0.3), who is the better own long term: Trevor Zegras or Matty Beniers?

These two are tough to compare for the time being, as Zegras is getting heaps more ice time but Berniers has more talent around him. I like that Zegras shoots a decent amount for a center, plus has a very solid SH%. Beniers doesn't shoot much less than Zegras, and his SH% is even more impressive. Their peripherals are also both very good, although it is a bit concerning seeing that Beniers is only fifth in PPPts despite getting the third most PP minutes among Kraken forwards. Zegras' PP output might not be great, but at least he has the most on his team, keeping with his status of receiving the most PP ice time.

Where Zegras has a clear edge is in IPP, as after sky high IPPs in his ten-game 2021-22 cameo, Beniers' are 68.3% overall but only 56,3% on the PP. Zegras' are better at 70.5% and 65.2%. Although neither one has even hit his 200 game breakout threshold, let along come close to peaking, IPPs are a nice early indicator of a player's nose for scoring, and it looks like Zegras has the edge despite neither one playing with what I'd consider top caliber wingers at present. Initial edge to Zegras there.

Both have impressively low secondary assist rates, which leaves room for scoring gains in the normal course. One concern about Zegras though is his ice times, both at ES and on the PP, have dropped with each quarter, and his Q3 SOG rate was his lowest yet this season. Beniers too has seen his SOG rate drop from Q2 to Q3; however, at least his ice time has been steady. One concern is Seattle is finding success without leaning on any line or player at ES or on the PP. With that recipe working it could continue to prevent Beniers from getting the "star treatment" that would lead to a breakout. In contrast, and notwithstanding the ice time trends, Anaheim is going to hitch its wagon to Zegras, so he will be a focal point now and going forward.

It's really difficult to judge the two of them as they stand right now given how early in their careers they are, and since both might be capable of so much more yet for different reasons. But Berniers' lower SOG and slightly worse – by comparison – IPPs, suggest that Zegras should produce better at his peak. If forced to choose one of the two, it'd be Zegras for me.

Topic #6 – In a H2H multicat league, a rebuilding team needs to trim the following list of 11 players to just four, prioritizing those who offer the most upside and with the understanding that the team already has a lot of depth at wing, so all things being otherwise equal that'd be where the cuts are made: Robin Lehner, Ivan Fedotov, Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, Mason Marchment, Jonatan Berggren, Grigori Denisenko, Ty Nelson, Nick Blankenburg, Christian Kyrou, Jack Rathbone.

Looking at the names, I see two goalies, five wings, and four defensemen. Even if all of the wingers were to be cut – and I'm certainly not saying that, at least not yet – that still would put the team at six players, requiring two more cuts. It'd help know more information, such as how many teams, how many start at each position, who the other keepers project to be, etc. But I still can try to answer based on just the players.

I think Lehner is a keep. Yes, he gets hurt a lot and who knows what he might do once he comes back. But if he's able to get return to even a fair semblance of his old self, and given the team he plays for, I think he's a keep. Yes, he's not an ideal piece for a rebuild; yet a common mistake some make when rebuilding is to rid themselves of any older players. You want them to be able to use as trade chips. I'm not saying you should have lots of players of Lehner's age; but a couple can make sense. Keep him and hope he can be ransomed off.

As for Fedotov, the uncertainty surrounding his situation, and him being on the Flyers, who might be a subpar squad for the foreseeable future, make him a tough keep. Yes, you will need goalies when you emerge from the rebuild; however, I don't think Fedotov is someone who I'd stick with given your other keeper choices.

Pool Party and Yamamoto have been such colossal disappointments, with many saying though that it's unfair to judge either until they get to game 400, due to JP's larger size and Yamamoto being diminutive. Yamamoto just doesn't shoot enough to be a reliable scorer and he has too many cold stretches where he disappears, relegating him to the bottom six. But JP landing in Carolina with so many of his countrymen, that intrigues me. I think JP should be on the list of those to consider keeping, while Yamamoto is someone I'd let go and not think twice about doing so.

I'm not holding Denisenko either. He's floundered at the NHL level and isn't even doing well in the AHL this season. I see a return to Russia for him sooner rather than later. Marchment also is someone I'm probably not holding. Yes, his numbers are artificially down due to his SH% being so low. Even if he was shooting at the same rate as last season his scoring pace would still be well below what it was, when in truth it likely was unsustainably high for 2022-23. In Dallas he's being paid enough to give him chances, but he's just not capitalizing. Let's not forget that he's older than he seems, as despite not even having played in 200 NHL games he's already 27. While there is a chance he hits his stride again next season to coincide with his 200-game breakout threshold, I'm not holding my breath. He's also a wing, where it was said the team already has plenty of depth. Marchment is on the cut list unless there aren't three other more deserving players.

Someone I'm not cutting is Berggren. With the Wings clearing house he should be able to find a nice spot in the top-six next season or soon thereafter. Yes, Detroit figures to not be as good as they were this season; however, they have the chips to come together as a team soon, and this is a rebuilding squad, so this player and that team are just what the doctor ordered. Yes, he is a wing; however, I think his upside is too high to let him go.

That leaves two spots – one if Marchment is kept – for the four defensemen. Rathbone I like a lot less with the Canucks having acquired Filip Hronek. He's also seen his production drop at the AHL level after last year's better than point per game output. He's going to turn 24 before the season ends, so I'd have expected him to be farther along by now. He's not a keep. I feel somewhat similar about Blankenburg, who turns 25 before this season ends. He put up some decent points in a run of games a while back; however, Columbus is about as thin as it will be on defense right now, and when everyone is healthy I don't think there's a place for him at the NHL level, at least for this squad.

That leaves two teen d-men for one spot, unless I opt for Marchment over them, which I don't think I prefer doing. Which of the two though? I think it's Nelson, as he's the younger of the two and Kyrou is not exactly lighting juniors on fire at age 19. It's close enough to where I could see a case being made for Kyrou instead.

In sum, I'm keeping Lehner, Puljujarvi, Berggren, and Nelson. The plan (hope?) would be for Lehner to return to health and put up solid numbers in order to facilitate him being moved for a nice asset or two, while the other three would be building blocks.

Topic #7 – What does the future hold for Brock Boeser? Is he on his way to having a trajectory similar to Jordan Eberle, with early success followed by decreased then stalled production?

Everyone who reads my columns knows I love – and believe in – player comparisons. But Boeser seems to be trying hard to defy them, as dating back to 1990-91 if we look solely at wingers, who, like him, had cumulative averages of 0.35 goals per game, 2.85 SOG per game, and 0.8 points per game in 250+ games, all by age 23, we get just nine players: Jaromir Jagr, Alex Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalcuk, Pavel Bure, David Pastrnak, Patrik Laine, Taylor Hall, Geoff Sanderson, and Bobby Ryan. While some never become stars, all but Ryan at least one season of 44+ goals or 90+ points, with most doing so several times. Maybe though, Boeser isn't Eberle 2.0, but rather Ryan 2.0?

Looking at his production this season, he's on pace for easily his lowest rates of SOG and goals per game, although his scoring has upticked versus 2021-22. The main problem though is he's no longer a "golden boy" on Vancouver, with his ice time down over two minutes since just two seasons ago, with nearly half of the lost time coming in the form of PP time. Nevertheless, in terms of points per minute, Boeser's 2022-23 rate is higher than in any campaign other than his, thus far, career best rookie season. Why might this be? Vancouver, despite being in shambles as a franchise, has no shortage of capable forwards, such that Boeser is benefitted in that he is all but assured to be able to skate alongside talented players.

Will a change of scenery help? It didn't for Ryan, Sanderson or Laine, the three weakest players in the list above. Where I also see reason for serious concern is in Boeser's IPPs, which have been below 60% on the PP for five straight seasons, and overall have been below 60% in two of the past three seasons and is barely above that mark (62.1%) for 2022-23. Considering forwards should be at or near 60% just for showing up, what with them accounting for 60% of the players on ice at 5×5 and up to three points being scored on each goal, that's worrisome. The other concerning sign is Boeser is on track to see his OZ% drop for the fourth straight season, yet it's still 53.1%, which is far from low.

My guess is the Canucks will try to move Boeser, and those who own him in pools can only hope he gets rejuvenated in his new home. But based on his metrics and what happened to the likes of Sanderson, Ryan and Laine, it's not clear a change of scenery will be a spark to Boeser's who could end up just being a 60 to 65-point player for the foreseeable future.

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