Ramblings: Buchnevich Extends Point Streak, Tippett Shoots Hat Trick, Dahlin Cold (Mar 18)

Ian Gooding

2023-03-18

With an assist on Friday, Pavel Buchnevich has extended his point streak to 11 games. Over that span, he has recorded 19 points (7 G, 12 A), including a hat trick in his previous game on Wednesday. Because he's experienced multiple injury stoppages this season and also the Blues' struggles, Buchnevich perhaps isn't receiving the credit for the kind of season that he is having. Yet among all players, Buchnevich is in the top 20 in points per game (1.17 PTS/GP), ahead of the likes of Brayden Points, Kirill Kaprizov, Auston Matthews, Artemi Panarin, and Aleksander Barkov. His 21.3 SH% seems a little high, so don't be surprised if there's a bit of regression the rest of the way.

In 40 games with the Rangers this season, Sammy Blais didn't score a single goal and recorded just five assists. Since being reacquired by St. Louis, Blais has nine points – including six goals – in 17 games. His first-half numbers with the Rangers show a player averaging under 10 minutes per game along with very little power-play time. With the Blues, however, it's a different story. Blais is up to 13 minutes per game with second-unit power-play time. That might not seem like much, but Blais's value is mainly in bangers leagues because of his hits total (191 Hits so far). Now that he's adding some scoring because of the additional opportunity, Blais is worth consideration in bangers leagues (9% Yahoo/11% Fantrax).

Jakub Vrana also recorded an assist on Friday, giving him four points in three games. Vrana had scored three goals in his previous two games and has five points in six games since coming to St. Louis. Like Blais, Vrana's value has also improved with a move to the Blues. Whenever a team decides to sell, there are always going to be players that pick up the slack, whether they have been waiting in the system for their opportunity or were acquired when other key pieces were moved out. It seems safe to add Vrana again. He is 28% rostered in Yahoo but 50% rostered in Fantrax.

With another goal on Friday, Jordan Kyrou now has five goals over his past four games. He's also taken a minimum of three shots over each of his last six games.

As a result of Jordan Binnington's suspension, Joel Hofer received his first start of the season on Friday. He stopped 32 of 34 shots he faced in the Blues' 5-2 win over Washington. The Blues play again on Sunday, so I wonder if Craig Berube decides to give Hofer another go after his quality start or if veteran backup Thomas Greiss is given the nod. The 22-year-old Hofer has posted solid AHL numbers this season (2.50 GAA, .920 SV%), so he should receive consideration for the backup job behind Binnington next season.

For the Capitals, Dylan Strome's point streak ended at six games. Strome had piled up 10 points over that span.

Noel Acciari is a similar player to Blais in that he offers plenty of hits along with occasional scoring spurts. Although he has scored just three goals and no assists in 13 games as a Leaf, Acciari has averaged over three hits per game with his new team. Unfortunately, the Leafs will have to do without Acciari for Saturday's game after taking a high hit from new Hurricane Jesse Puljujarvi. Acciari seems likely to be in concussion protocol, at least in the short term.

In his sixth game with the Leafs, Erik Gustafsson recorded his first point. Gustafsson probably should have been dropped in standard-sized leagues upon being traded to Toronto. He maximizes his value on the power play, but he's been a second-unit option at best for the Leafs. He was also regularly averaging over 20 minutes per game with the Capitals before the trade, but he's more of a 14-15 minute per game option for the Leafs. Potential healthy scratches might also be a concern, although that would likely happen more often in the playoffs when the games become tighter.

Owen Tippett's hat trick on Friday has pushed him over the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career. He seemed buried under a ton of other players in Florida last season, so the trade to Philadelphia has boosted his value. He's been a regular top-6 option for the Flyers while also working his way onto the top power-play unit as well. Tippett also leads the Flyers with 186 shots, averaging three shots per game.

Nearly 100 players have scored 20 goals this season, but recent shot totals are what make Tippett stand out even more. In fact, Tippett has been averaging over five shots per game over his last 10 games (since February 21), posting totals of 6, 8, 9, and 8 SOG in individual games and 7 SOG in his hat-trick game. Only Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid have taken more shots over that nearly month-long span, while only Matthew Tkachuk has averaged a higher SOG/GP total over that same date range. Somehow, Tippett is rostered in only 13 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Victor Olofsson scored both goals in the Sabres' loss to the Flyers. Two interesting stats with Olofsson: 1) He recently ended an 11-game point drought, and 2) He has a very Cy Young Award-like 26-9 statline. No player with as many goals as Olofsson has as few assists, although Cole Caufield posted a very similar 26-10 line before his season-ending injury. As you might expect, Olofsson's shooting percentage (17.8%) seems likely to fall, while his secondary assist percentage (22.2%) could easily improve.

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Rasmus Dahlin's career season has stalled, as the star defenseman has no points in his last seven games.  Remember that he missed two games at the end of February with an undisclosed injury, and he has just one point in eight games since returning from the injury. In other words, he could still be trying to battle through something while he tries to help push the Sabres over the playoff bar. I wouldn't suggest dropping a player that is having as strong a season as Dahlin is having overall, but shallow leaguers might want to consider benching him if the other options have proven to be better recently.

Patrik Laine scored a goal, added an assist, and finished with a minus-2 because the Blue Jackets lost 7-4 to Anaheim. That qualified Laine for a Draisaitl Hat Trick, which was the only one of the day. Again, a Draisaitl Hat Trick isn't all bad and is more of a reflection of the team-driven plus-minus stat. Laine also finished with a game-high eight shots. He's also been on a heater recently with 13 points over his last 10 games.

Buried at the bottom of the league with a league-worst 49 points, the Jackets have now been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with the loss. Connor to Columbus?

With the winning goal, Max Jones now has goals in two consecutive games and points in three consecutive games. He also took a team-high six shots on goal on Friday. His cause has also been helped by the fact that he is now on a line with Troy Terry and Mason McTavish.

Follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding for more fantasy hockey.

2 Comments

  1. Striker 2023-03-18 at 10:36

    Blais is the perfect example of how opportunity comes into play and is 1 of the 3 ingredients in my system for a player to succeed on the defined timelines under my 80/20 rule. Not just about TOI/GP but obviously a factor and a component of opportunity. Blais primary linemates in NYR using frozen tools were Carpenter and Gauthier 97%, Goodrow and Gauthier 9.1%, Reeves and carpenter 6.8%, Brodzinski and Gauthier 5.6%, Brodzinski and Kravatsov 3.6%, Brodzinski, and Leschyshyn; I’d like to buy a vowel please, etc. 4th line mins. in his 5 games in StL, his primary linemates are Schenn and Saad.

    Interestingly enough Blais is approaching his breakthrough point of 200 games although right on the cusp of being a monster class forward at 6’2″ 205 lbs. It’s very possible Blais may maintain this role; opportunity, but will depend on what Armstrong has up his sleeve this summer. Is ROR or Barbeshev returning, both? Where would the cap space come from to do so?

    Will the NHL/NHLPA amend the CBA to allow for a greater increase as Gary Bettman spoke to the other day? I actually hope they don’t as curious to watch teams wiggle out of this hell they find themselves in. The players refused to amend the CBA when the NHL requested they do so I would stay the course with this agreement until this CBA expires. That said I think what the NHL wants to do so is get an extension of the existing CBA by at least a year but I would assume 3 as the pandemic fucked everything up cratering the cap & the huge increase that would have been realized a year after the new national US TV deal was put in place.

  2. Striker 2023-03-18 at 10:43

    My Cy Young goes to Machenko at 17-2 in 45 games.

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