Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

Marco Rossi (MIN)

With non-playoff teams only ten or so points back of Minnesota with 12-14 games left in the campaign, and the team now missing Kirill Kaprizov for 3-4 weeks with a lower-body injury, many fantasy managers assumed that a call up was imminent for Wild golden boy Marco Rossi—whose name, it turns out, is pronounced "rrrow-see" not "raw-see." He is nearly a point-per-game in the AHL for the second year in a row and seemed like the most obvious choice to replace Kaprizov's high-octane offence.

But instead of turning to the Austrian mega-prospect, Minnesota management called up depth forward Sammy Walker, 23, and immediately placed him on the top line.

Last 12 games:

Marco Rossi: 3 goals, 9 points, 2.91 shots per game

Sammy Walker: 3 goals, 4 points, 1.25 shots per game

You'll never guess who was "Ready"!!!

— Tony of the USS 10KRinks.com (@OhHiTony) March 9, 2023

Wild fans and impatient fantasy managers may not like the move, and you could be forgiven for feeling like Rossi's value is kind of up in the air right now given that he scored only one assist in 16 NHL games earlier this year and has been "stuck" in the minors since then, but he has nine points in his last five AHL games and seems to be playing some of the best hockey of his young career.

Wild Forward call-up Pecking Order:

Sammy Walker
Adam Beckman
Dakota Mermis (playing as forward)
Nic Petan
Joseph Cramarossa
Emergency Recalling Hunter Haight
Nate Prosser One-Day Contract
Marco Rossi

— Tony of the USS 10KRinks.com (@OhHiTony) March 9, 2023

I am as frustrated as the next Rossi owner, but we can probably agree that the big picture is more important here. Just look at how New York has apparently stunted the development of their first overall pick from Rossi's year, Alexis Lafreniere, with sub-optimal deployment and linemates. Clearly something was not jiving during Rossi's first crack at the NHL, and clearly he has been regaining his mojo down with Iowa (AHL), so it is actually commendable that the Wild are continuing to give Rossi top-line reps in the minors—even with the Kaprizov-injury-playoff-race situation.

Rossi seems poised to stick with the Wild out of camp next October and be an impact player right off the hop. His Hockey Prospecting star percentage remains very high (63%), he is dominating the Under-22 AHL scoring race (2nd overall), and he continues to post excellent NHL equivalencies—this is his third campaign over the critical 40 mark. His passing and hockey sense continue to be significant assets, and he has also pushed himself to develop more of a shooter's mentality to keep opposing defences guessing. He gets around two-thirds of his points from assists but also scores goals at a decent rate.

A unique thing about Rossi that may make his owners nervous in fantasy: there is no one in NHL history who has looked quite like him in terms of physical size and career trajectory. Basically his only HP comparable is Brian Rolston, who was a big guy (6-3, 215 lbs) known for his big slapper. Rolston basically lived in the 50-60-point range at the height of his career except for a 79-point outburst with the Wild in 2003.

Even if Rossi further develops his shot, he will have a much more diverse and dynamic game than Rolston ever did, not to mention a significantly different build, and his points ceiling still projects to be higher. Rolston was an Average Producer on the cusp of being a Fringe Star; Rossi still projects to be a Star Producer (+57-point career average) who has a solid chance at superstardom. With the Wild heading into a few tight years cap-wise, Rossi's sub-million-dollar hit until 2024-25 should make him an even more attractive asset.

For Rossi's first 16 NHL games, he played mostly with Connor Dewar, Mason Shaw, Marcus Foligno, and Matt Boldy. Boldy will hopefully be a common running mate for him moving forward but the others are not exactly top-of-the-lineup scoring stars. He only saw 5% of his shifts on the top line with Kaprizov and Zuccarello, and most of his power play exposure came on the second unit.

Buy low if you can, even if "low" is a seemingly comparable prospect like fellow 2020 draftee Alexander Holtz (NJD). Rossi is going to pop in 2023-24.

Tim Stutzle (OTT) and Quinton Byfield (LAK)

Speaking of popping, a couple of the guys drafted ahead of Rossi in the 2020 draft have been on absolute heaters recently: Tim Stutzle (3rd overall) has ten points in his last five games, and Quinton Byfield (2nd) has seven in his last eight. I flipped Rossi and Luke Hughes for Stutzle in one league at the beginning of last season and haven't looked back for a second despite the vast potential I sent back the other way.

That's because Stutzle, 21, is already a fantasy superstar. He is on pace to finish the year with 97 points, 3 shots/game, excellent power-play production, 1.5 hits/game, and some face off wins for good measure. He would unquestionably go first overall now in a 2020 redo.

Byfield has been a slower burn, but we knew that all along. Over that same eight-game stretch, on top of going almost a point-per-game, he also threw 11 hits and 14 shots. All of that production has come at even strength, where he continues to see regular minutes with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe on the Kings' top line. Byfield's "playing to stay" mindset seems to be working out, and it's a ton of fun to see him slowly beginning to flex his muscles. The "buy slightly low" window is steadily closing on him.

Cole Perfetti (WPG)

Sticking with the 2020 draft, let's turn to the player taken one slot after Rossi at 10th overall, Cole Perfetti. Despite the fact that I continue to be very high on Perfetti, who is pacing for nearly 50 points in his first full NHL campaign, there are a few red flags with his profile that I wanted to draw attention to as fantasy managers decide how highly to value his services over the off-season.

First off, he does not currently produce many shots (1.8/game) or hits (0.7) despite having a high-end shot and not shying away from engaging physically. That is not to say that these rates won't pick up as his ice time (15 minutes/game) and comfort level increase, but what we have seen from him so far has not been too far above replacement level across the board. He has only provided 0.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), whereas fellow rookie Matty Beniers (SEA) has given the Kraken twice that, for context.

Although his 5.4 Goals Above Replacement (GAR) looks okay, he has outperformed his Expected GAR (xGAR) of 1.6 by almost four. That metric, combined with his 1035 PDO, show that Perfetti has been lucky in 2022-23 and could regress moving forward unless he makes key gains elsewhere, such as shooting more often or receiving more than his current 33% of available power play time.

The fact that he has been stapled to Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, and Pierre-Luc Dubois all year at even strength shows how highly regarded the 21-year-old is in the Winnipeg organization. I still feel he will be a high-end offensive producer as early as 2023-24 but wanted to balance out my consistent praise with some areas to keep an eye on.

The data shows that rush offence is not his speciality but that he is deadly once Winnipeg has set up shop in the offensive zone. Footspeed was never a strength with Perfetti, however; he is all about slowing the game down and picking defences apart with the puck on his stick. As long as those strengths continue to jive with how the team wants to play, this kid should get all the ice time and opportunity he can handle.

Seth Jarvis (CAR)

Jarvis, who went 13th in 2020, has seen his scoring rate decline slightly in his second year—from pacing for nearly 50 down closer to 40. His GAR also declined (12.6 → 7.8) and is more in line with expected rates than Perfetti's, meaning his lower production this year is sustainable. His IPP dropped over 15 points too, which shows he has become less central to his team's scoring this year.

As with the others, however, there is absolutely nothing to worry about with Jarvis. He has increased his shot rate (1.6 → 2.3) since last year and continues to throw about a hit per game. He has earned over two more minutes of ice time this year and remains stapled to Sebastian Aho at even strength. His power play time has also grown slightly but he remains primarily used on the second unit for now, and as a result, his PP production (four points) has been very underwhelming. That second unit currently consists of Jarvis, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Jack Drury—not exactly the best scoring talent on the Hurricanes.

What a move by Seth Jarvis 😱 pic.twitter.com/zW5F74TRNn

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) January 30, 2023

A couple years from now, I would not be overly surprised to see Jarvis posting a stat line comparable to what we're seeing from Stutzle this year—even though his skating is not as elite and he did not take the step forward in his second year that Stutzle did. If he can mirror Aho and post closer to a star-level 20 PPP a year, Jarvis should easily be a 60+-point threat with room to hit and maybe even exceed a point per game. Jarvis' only HP comparable is Doug Weight, who busted out in his third year for 74 points, followed by 12 consecutive seasons in the point-per-game neighbourhood. Look for a breakout in the second half of 2023-24 as he plays his 200th game.

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.