The Montreal Canadiens are 1-7-2 in their last 10 games as the team's slide has started in earnest. It is hard to blame the roster as the team was thin at the outset of the season, and injuries to Brendan Gallagher, Cole Caufield, Saen Monahan, Jake Evans, and Juraj Slafkovsky only made it worse. They did get some good news on Monday, though, as a bunch of injured guys were at practice, even if in a non-contact jersey:

Kirby Dach, Brendan Gallagher et Jake Evans participent à l'entraînement. Mais ils portent le bleu foncé. Zéro contact.

— J-F Chaumont (@JFChaumontJDM) March 20, 2023

Being able to get back some injured guys for a few games at the end of the year could go a long way to finishing the season on a high note, if in the draft lottery. There could be some important fantasy streamers, too, as this weekend starts a four-game stretch for the Habs that includes Columbus, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Florida. There is still fantasy goodness to be had.

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Staying with the good news train, some for the Flyers:

Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny are both present for practice. They are wearing non-contact jerseys.

— Olivia Reiner (@ReinerOlivia) March 20, 2023

If Philadelphia wants to turn things around at all in 2023-24, full seasons from Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny are basically a must. We will see how they progress over the next couple weeks.

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John Carlson was in a regular jersey at Washington's Monday practice:

John Carlson practices in regular jersey for first time since head injury https://t.co/PdWStDhia4

— RMNB (@rmnb) March 20, 2023

He is not cleared for play or anything, it is just an update on his progression, especially with how scary that injury ended up being. It's great to see Carlson back with his teammates in a normal sweater.

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Gabriel Landeskog was in a red jersey at Colorado's practice on Monday:

Hmmm. Landeskog is out here in a non contact jersey.

— Evan Rawal (@evanrawal) March 20, 2023

Mr. Rawal would later say that Landeskog lasted only about 10 minutes in practice, but it's a good sign nonetheless. This is just my guess and not based on hidden information, but if Landeskog can get to full-contact practices in the next couple weeks, it bodes well for a playoff return. He still has a lot of steps to take between now and then, however. We shall see.

On the downside, Cale Makar left practice halfway through and Bowen Byram took his spot on the top PP unit. That led to the reigning Norris Trophy winner missing Monday night's game. Makar has been in and out of the lineup for a couple months and it's a bit concerning that it's still happening.

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Florida took care of business as far as their playoff pursuits are concerned, taking a 5-2 win in Detroit. Matthew Tkachuk had a goal and two assists in the game, the four time in his last five contests with at least three points. He has five goals, nine assists, six power-play points, and 26 shots in his last outings. That is fine performance for head-to-head playoffs.

Carter Verhaeghe scored twice, giving him 36 goals on the year. He has both 40 goals and 70 points (now at 63) well within reach if he stays in the lineup. Sam Bennett had two assists, which gives him 40 points on the season, adding two shots. Another very good multi-cat season from him.

Dylan Larkin scored in the loss as Ville Husso gave up all five goals on 25 shots.

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The game I watched, which distilled hockey to its essence, was Pittsburgh/Ottawa. The Sens turned to Dylan Ferguson for the start in goal, a 2017 seventh-round pick by Dallas who has bounced around the AHL/ECHL the last few years, having appeared briefly in one NHL game back in 2017-18 with Vegas. As these things tend to go, he stopped 47 of 48 shots to lift the Ottawa Senators to a 2-1 win in Pittsburgh. What's more is that Ottawa had a 1-0 lead with six minutes left only for Rickard Rakell to score a huge goal for their season. A little over three minutes later, Drake Batherson redirected a Brady Tkachuk pass for a power-play goal, and the victory. A game thoroughly dominated by Pittsburgh with a minor league goalie in net for the opponent results in a late goal against to not even manage a loser point. The essence of hockey.

Tkachuk added six shots and a hit with his power-play assist. Thomas Chabot had a great fantasy night with a goal on three shots, a block, and four hits.

Rakell's goal was the 25^th of the season for him, the first time he's reached that mark since 2018, and the third time in his career. It was also his 50^th point of the season, similarly his third 50-point campaign.

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One of the missteps a lot of us fantasy players make – myself included – is kind of forgetting about younger players that don't break out right away. As fantasy players, we're looking for the guys that can have a big impact on our rosters and if a rookie can't do that, as they often can't, they get discarded and pushed to the back of our minds. It isn't necessarily a bad thing, as we're just looking for ways to improve a fantasy roster, but it can hurt down the road if a player shows improvements yet we stick with our initial assessment. This type of anchoring bias – weighing the first piece of information most heavily – has been discussed in these Ramblings before, and we'll do so again right now.

Let's look at some young players that haven't taken that next step in the fantasy game even with a couple seasons under their belt. Let's look for some changes, improvements/declines, and what it can mean moving forward. The offseason is just a few weeks away and lining up buy-low options is one way to jump-start a keeper/dynasty roster that may have stagnated. Of course, it depends on the fantasy owners involved, but it's worth exploring nonetheless. Data will be from our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated.

Jesperi Kotkaniemi

Going back to Christmas, Kotkaniemi has 24 points in 34 games as his production has really taken another step. One-third of those 24 points came in two outings, so it's a little skewed, but we can't throw out the elite performances because it doesn't fit a narrative. The fact remains he is second among Carolina forwards in points/60 minutes in that span, trailing only Martin Necas, and in the 83^rd percentile of the league.

The big problem for Kotkaniemi is creating dangerous chances. In fact, it was the problem Necas had a year ago: good at generating shots for teammates, but not dangerous ones. It isn't conjecture, as Corey Sznajder's tracking data has KK well below average by scoring chance assists at 5-on-5, or the rate at which the young centre assists on a teammate's scoring chance:

This is why the team can generate a lot of shot attempts with Kotkaniemi on the ice, but not a commensurate amount of dangerous chances, and it's why the goal-scoring usually lags with him on the ice.  

In that sense, there are two concerns here. The lack of quality shot generation, either from KK himself or by generating for a line mate, is one issue. The other is his recent production jump is almost entirely secondary assists at 5-on-5. Of the 24 points in his last 34 games, 38% of them are secondary 5-on-5 helpers. Those can be very random, so it's inflating his production totals/rates. All the same, great defence and a jump in controlled zone entries, with the strong shot-assist rates, point to a lot of good to come. Once he figures out the quality thing, he could be an excellent two-way centre. He is still just 22 years old.

Alexis Lafrenière

Patience can run out for a number-1 pick that appears to be falling short of both the 20-goal and 40-point mark for the third straight season (even his paces in the 56-game season fell short of those marks). A drop in 5-on-5 shooting percentage has hurt his totals this year, too. What's going on with him this season?

There is a lot of good going on with Lafrenière this year, actually, even if it doesn't seem like it. His scoring chance contributions – individual scoring chances plus assists on teammate scoring chances at 5-on-5, or SCC/60 – are well over one standard deviation above average. Visually, these are who Laffy compares to across the league (in that red box are Johnny Gaudreau, Patrik Laine, Jeff Skinner, and Jack Eichel):

Lafrenière is comparing favourably to high-end forwards by SCC/60, his controlled zone entries are good, he is driving the play with offensive zone starts and soft competition, but the offence hasn't improved. Something curious though: the team is shooting 11.6% at 5-on-5 when Laffy and Filip Chytil are on the ice, 5.9% when the winger is on the ice without Chytil, and that's despite more expected goals/scoring chances created without Chytil.

Whenever Lafrenière has skated away from Vincent Trocheck this season, his points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 is the same as Chris Kreider. There are bad offensive/defensive impacts but on the offensive side, he's doing a lot of good things to generate goals, he's just not at the next level yet. My mind wanders as to whether he's a good fit under Gerard Gallant, but that's another topic for another day. This is not a player to give up on yet in any sense of those words.  

Alex Newhook

Conversely, there are issues with Alex Newhook. His per-game production has declined from a year ago despite a bit more ice time, and that's not great. Even worse is there hasn't been much progression to his game. Despite neutral usage and the guys above the lineup taking top comp, he's still not driving the play:

He is not driving play and his shot attempt rate at 5-on-5 is 270^th out of 303 qualified forwards, nestled between Pat Maroon and Jean-Gabriel Pageau. What is going on?

First, it's not a line mate-quality problem. He has spent 140 minutes at 5-on-5 with Mikko Rantanen this year and when Rantanen has Newhook as a line mate, his expected goal share drops nearly 7% and goals against skyrocket. It isn't as if Newhook is anywhere neutral when playing with better players; he's actively making them worse. That will happen with poor shot rates, league-average SCC/60, and a below-average controlled zone entry percentage. He is not close to reaching the next level the team, and fantasy owners, have hoped for.

At just 22 years old, there is some growth to come, but Newhook will hit 150 regular season games by the end of this campaign, and shown little-to-no growth in three seasons. He can absolutely turn it around, but we need to see a lot more from him. Hopefully he can have a playoff run like Bowen Byram did a year ago.

Cam York

It bothered me to see Cam York ride the pine towards the end of the 2021-22 season because he seemed to be playing well. John Tortorella being hired in the offseason didn't help matters and York started this season in the AHL. He eventually made his way back to the NHL after posting 13 points in 20 games in the minors and he's stayed ever since.

As has been the case with a lot of Flyers skaters under Tortorella, York's usage has been all over the place. He had a 10-game stretch from mid-January to mid-February where York averaged 20:26 a night and skated at least 19 minutes in six of those games. He also has a 10-game stretch from that point until the second week of March that saw him skate 17:58 a night and breaking 19 minutes once. A bad team and inconsistent usage have helped lead to meagre point totals.

All that said, he leads Flyers defencemen in expected goal share at 5-on-5 and relative to the rest of the Flyers, his 7.5% relative expected goal share is top-5 in the league. He is also above 50% in actual goal share on a team that is 47.4% since he got recalled. He is the only Flyers defenceman to be better than average in carry against%, or the rate at which a controlled zone entry is allowed, and denying the blue line. That convergence has given him a similar defensive profile in this regard to Mattias Ekholm:

It is clear that Tortorella's coaching is having a very good defensive impact. Can York attain the offensive heights we had hoped for him? It could be tough sledding under Tortorella but not a bad start.

Adam Boqvist

An honourable mention here to Adam Boqvist. I just noticed that over the last three seasons, Boqvist's points/60 at all strengths is 1.58. For reference, Noah Dobson is at 1.64, Zach Werenski is at 1.57, and Rasmus Andersson is at 1.53. Boqvist has shown a lot of good offensive promise, even in this lost Columbus season, but the defence remains a big issue. Maybe he can be the next Quinn Hughes/Morgan Rielly, or maybe he's the next Tony DeAngelo. We will be digging into him a lot more this summer.