Tuesday Game Picks: Lightning Strikes Habs; Goals Galore between Dallas and Seattle

Will McLean

2023-03-21

We are back with another Tuesday edition of Game Picks, where we give out a Gold, Silver, and Bronze selection every Tuesday during the NHL season. Tonight's NHL  schedule is absolutely jam-packed with 13 games, which should give us more than enough options to find some winners. I've done my best to research each of the games and I think I have found some good bets. The three matchups I am most interested in are the Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens, Seattle Kraken @ Dallas Stars, and Arizona Coyotes @ Winnipeg Jets. Hopefully, I can get back on track and sweep the board tonight.

Below I highlight my Gold, Silver, and Bronze selections for tonight's games. Last Tuesday was a rough day that saw me go (1 – 2), bringing my season record to a subpar (18 – 21).

Gold Selection

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens – Pick: Lightning In Regulation (-151)

Not much needs to be said about this pick, the Montreal Canadiens are horrible, so bet against them. The Tampa Bay Lightning haven't quite hit their Stanley Cup level yet, but they have been picking up steam as of late. The Lightning have won three of their last four and five of their last eight, seemingly, putting their skid in February and early March in the rearview mirror.  The Canadiens on the other hand have only won one of their last 10 games, which is probably a good thing in their hunt for Connor Bedard. The Lightning and Canadiens have played each other three times already this season, the Lightning won all three games in regulation. In those three games, the Lightning outscored the Canadiens 14-5, never scoring less than four goals and holding the Canadiens to just one goal in two of them. With the Lightning ramping up for the playoffs and their dominance over the Canadiens this season, I expect the Lightning to outclass the Canadiens again tonight.

Silver Selection

Seattle Kraken @ Dallas Stars – Pick: Over 6 (-116)

The Seattle Kraken and Dallas Stars have both been scoring more goals than usual while also allowing more than usual, a good recipe for an over. This season the Kraken have been averaging 3.48 goals for per game and 3.19 goals against per game. But over their last 10 games, the Kraken have been averaging 3.70 goals and 3.40 goals against per game, meaning their games have been producing about half a goal more per game than average. Meanwhile, the Stars have been averaging 3.43 goals and 2.73 goals against per game this season. But, over their past 10 games, they have been averaging 4.80 goals and 3.50 goals against per game, that's just over two more total goals per game than average, that's crazy. This recent trend has resulted in 10 of the Stars last 12 games having at least seven total goals, whereas the Kraken have seen five of their last six games result in seven or more goals. The Kraken and Stars have already played each other twice in March, resulting in seven goals in both games, a pattern I hope continues tonight.

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Bronze Selection

Arizona Coyotes @ Winnipeg Jets – Pick: Nino Niederreiter Over 2.5 Shots (-105)

Nino Niederreiter has really upped his shot output since joining the Winnipeg Jets, and I think that will continue tonight versus the Arizona Coyotes. This season Niederreiter is averaging 2.39 shots per game, but over his last 10 games, all with the Jets, he is averaging 3.0 shots per game. This uptick in shots has led to him recording at least three shots in three straight games, eight of 10, and four of five on home ice. The latter is important considering the Jets are hosting the Coyotes tonight. Speaking of the Coyotes, they are absolutely terrible when it comes to shot suppression. This season they are averaging 35.9 shots against per game, the second most in the NHL, and over their last 10 games they are averaging 39.30 shots against, the most over that span. With the Jets trying to hold onto their playoff spot, the Coyotes getting caved in with shots, and Niederreiter's strong play since joining the Jets, I expect Niederreiter to shoot the puck every chance he gets.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 26 - 19:11 MTL vs UTA
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JOSH MANSON COL
KENT JOHNSON CBJ
PHILIP TOMASINO PIT
VALERI NICHUSHKIN COL
WILL CUYLLE NYR

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DUSTIN WOLF CGY
JOEY DACCORD SEA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
SPENCER MARTIN CAR
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH

LINE COMBOS

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29.9 VINCENT TROCHECK ARTEMI PANARIN ALEXIS LAFRENIERE
18.5 REILLY SMITH KAAPO KAKKO ADAM EDSTROM
16.3 MIKA ZIBANEJAD WILL CUYLLE BRETT BERARD

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