Ramblings: Updates On Chychrun, Reilly Smith, Blankenburg, Ehlers, Zadina, Barzal, Fabbri, And More – March 28

Michael Clifford

2023-03-28

One of the concerns for any team interested in acquiring Jakob Chychrun over the last couple of seasons was his health. This will make five straight 82-game seasons where he's failed to reach 70 games played (though he did play the entire 56-game Bubble campaign). Those concerns came up again recently as he missed a game over the weekend, and we got a further update:

It seems that, at best, he could be back for the last week of the season. Whether Ottawa is still in a playoff race at that point remains to be seen. If Chychrun has played his last game of the campaign, he'll finish with 33 points in 48 games overall, but just five points in 12 games with Ottawa. He was still putting up great peripherals, though, and he's not been reliant on PP production for his fantasy value. A good offseason of training and a full camp with the team in September should have him as a great multi-cat option once again.

Ottawa managed a huge win on Monday night without Chychrun, taking a 5-2 victory at home over Florida. On a day where there was lots of discussion of their potential sale, the team showed promise of the future as Brady Tkachuk, Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom (PP), Alex DeBrincat (PP), and Tim Stützle (PP) each scored to give the team a much-needed two points. Tkachuk added an assist with three shots and a hit, while Pinto had five total shots on target with a couple of penalty minutes.

Mads Sogaard saved 32 of 34 in the win. His team has to likely win out to have a shot at the postseason, but a journey of a thousand miles, etc.

Gustav Forsling scored both Panthers goals in defeat. He had five shots in all, a block, and a hit in 23:41 of TOI. He is now skating more per game than Aaron Ekblad with Ekblad having lost his top PP role a number of games ago. Forsling has set career-bests with goals (12) and points (38). He has really turned himself into a nice offensive defenceman. For fantasy, he just needs top PP time. Until then, his upside is capped.

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On the flipside, Buffalo, turned a 3-2 third-period lead at home to Montreal in a 4-3 shootout loss. They still have games in hand on every team ahead of them but this feels like a lost point that could have at least tied them with Ottawa. It certainly didn't help that Tage Thompson missed the game and is considered day-to-day.

Lukas Rousek had a goal and an assist in his first career NHL game, a good showing from the 2019 sixth rounder. JJ Peterka scored his 10th goal of the season, a marker that also pushed him to 30 points. Not a bad year for the rookie.

Alex Belzile, Brendan Gallagher, and Jordan Harris all scored for the Habs. Gallagher now has two goals and three points in four games since returning, though he's still not getting much ice time.

Mike Matheson had an assist, four shots, a block, and a hit in over 29 minutes of ice time. He has seven goals, 21 points, and 65 shots in 23 games since the All-Star break. He could be a pretty nice value at the draft table next season, especially if the team's young stars take a step.

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A pair of goals from Kyle Palmieri helped the New York Islanders take a 5-1 win at home to New Jersey, his old team. He assisted on a goal from Pierre Engvall, and those three points give him 22 points in 27 games since returning from injury in January. His multi-cat appeal is still strong even as he gets up there in years.

Bo Horvat scored his first goal in 12 games, albeit into an empty net. All the same, hopefully it's something that can get his game turned around a bit for the fantasy stretch run.

Ilya Sorokin stopped 30 of 31 shots as he showed the kind of performance that is going to make any team facing the Islanders in the postseason very nervous.

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Zach Werenski was skating at Columbus practice on Monday, which is a good sign (they said he's still not returning this season). Columbus provided a bunch more updates on injuries, particularly to the blue line and net:  

That is going to thin out areas the team was already very thin. It should mean boatloads of ice time for guys like Adam Boqvist and Andrew Peeke, though. The Jackets have four games this week, so there is potential, but the first two are in New York and Boston, before returning home for Florida and Ottawa. With them playing T-Th-Sa this week, maybe not a lot of streaming value, but keep them in mind for Sunday (if they aren't gone already).

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Filip Zadina was at practice on Monday for Detroit:

At some point, likely in the offseason, I'm going to do a dive on Zadina. He clearly hasn't reached the lofty heights Detroit fans and fantasy players had for him, but I don't think he's been as bad as his boxcar stats have shown thus far. Like Alexis Lafrenière, there could be something here for those that exercise patience, but I'll wait until I do the dive before reaching any firm conclusions.

On the downside, Robby Fabbri is done for the season:

Between injuries and a handful of scratches, when this season is over, Fabbri will have played just 114 of a possible 220 regular season games over the last three years, or about 52% of the games. Unfortunately, injuries have been the hallmark of his career as 61 games are a single-season high for him since his 2015-16 rookie campaign. He has two more years left on his contract so there is time to figure it out in Detroit, but he needs to stay on the ice to do it. Until we see that, it's hard to rely on him in fantasy beyond a streaming option.

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We got a (sort of) update on Mathew Barzal:

Barzal has been out of the lineup for over five weeks at this point and he's still not back on the ice, even testing things out. That is a concern with the postseason three weeks away, though the Islanders just keep winning games for now. Regardless, it seems any hope of fantasy owners – particularly those in H2H leagues – having Barzal's services for this campaign are slimming to none.

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Things are getting worse for Nikolaj Ehlers fantasy owners:

That is Ehlers down on the third line as the Jets, 7-11-2 in their last 20 games, try to right the ship and ensure a playoff appearance. Ehlers has been a fascinating case this year outside the injuries, and it someone we'll dive into more in the offseason. His ongoing demotion isn't completely unwarranted.

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Viktor Arvidsson was named the first star of the week thanks to his five goals and seven points:

While last week was certainly a good one, Arvidsson has been producing for a while now. After a slow start to the season that saw just 13 goals and 34 points through the All-Star break (48 games), Arvidsson has 11 goals and 19 points in his last 20 games, averaging over four shots per game. If he can shoot somewhere around 11-12% rather than 8-9%, it makes a big difference for the second line's scoring potential, and the overall threat of the team going into the postseason. Perhaps they should just leave Arvidsson with Kevin Fiala until they show something other than what they've done lately?

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We got a slew of updates on Vegas skaters:

And, according to Mr. Granger, this doesn't include Reilly Smith and Logan Thompson both not skating and expected out all week. If Vegas is going to make noise in the postseason, it'll be because of depth, and not superstars, so the continued absence of players like Smith and William Carrier is cause for concern.

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Despite the St. Louis Blues trading away so many players, and losing others to injury, the month of March has still been productive for them. That includes Jordan Kyrou, who has 14 points in 13 games this month, managing eight goals on 46 shots. He has done that, mind you, while seen an ice-time decrease of about a minute per game. Percentages are a thing here, of course, but that he's still been generating so many shots is a very good sign, considering the degrading quality of the team. He now has 60 goals and 143 points in his last 144 regular season games and doesn't turn 25 years old until the offseason. He is really just starting to find his groove and the points are coming through because of it.

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While looking up the stats for Kyrou, I came across this: Carter Verhaeghe went into Monday night's game third in the league in shot attempts/minute this month, trailing only David Pastrnak and Viktor Arvidsson. Verhaeghe entered that contest with 13 points in his last 11 games, managing 4.5 shots per game in that span. In a bigger sample, he had 17 goals and 33 points in 29 games going back to the middle of January, averaging over four shots per game. Brandon Montour has exploded in the fantasy game but no Florida forward has benefitted more from the Matthew Tkachuk trade than Verhaeghe has. What was once a good fantasy producer might now be a legitimate 40-goal, 90-point threat with his line mates, in this system, as long as he stays on the top PP unit. Like Nikolaj Ehlers in recent seasons, it was the last hurdle for Verhaeghe to reach the next plateau in the fantasy game and he's making hay with the opportunity he's been given. He still has two more years on his deal so this is something that should continue for a couple seasons yet.

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