Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Adam)

I'm in a 12 team, keep 6 league where a player's next season keeper "cost" is two rounds earlier than the round in which he was picked or kept for this season, until it gets to the 5th round, then it's just one round earlier. If a free agent is kept, his cost is an 18th rounder.

The draft is 19 rounds, giving each team 19 players (plus IR spots). I currently own the following picks: 1, 3, 4, 2×5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 2×13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 2×19. Starting line-ups are 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2U, 2G, with categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, PPPts, SOG, HIT, BLK, GS, W, GAA, SA, SV%.

As I write this – and at the risk of jinxing myself – it looks like I’m going to finish first this season! But I figure it's never too early to look at my six keepers for 2023-24. Right now my roster consists of the following players, with their next season's keeper cost – and, if applicable, their multi-positional eligibility – in parentheses:

C: Ryan O’Reilly (11), Pavel Zacha (LW/RW – 18), Matty Beniers (16), J.T. Compher (RW – 18), Aleksander Barkov (1), Sam Bennett (6), J.T. Miller (LW/RW – 5)

RW: Nikita Kucherov (5), Tom Wilson (17)

LW – Tomas Tatar (RW – 18), Jason Robertson (13), Caufield (RW – 14), Eeli Tolvanen (RW – 18)

D: Darnell Nurse (1), Roman Josi (1), Jakub Chychrun (15), Radko Gudas (7), John Carlson (1), Samuel Girard (18)

G: Connor Hellebuyck (3), Thatcher Demko (2), Jordan Binnington (9), Ukko Pekka Luukkonen (14)

Right now, my two keeper locks are Kucherov and Robertson. I think my best choices for the other four spots are Chychrun, Hellebuyck, Beniers, Wilson, Caufield, UPL, and Miller. Guys that have some lure are Zacha, Tolvanen, ROR, Bennett, and Binnington.

As you can see from the scoring, goalies are very valuable in this league with five out of 13 Categories for two starting spots and three of those five are volume stats. I figure that if I kept Hellebuyck I'd be set there, although it's not a huge gap between the round he’d likely be drafted (1st) and where I’d have to keep him (3rd). I like UPL, but I'm not sure if he'll be the main guy in Buffalo next year.

If Wilson plays anywhere close to 82 games next season, then I think he could be great at 17; but on the other hand, I'm intrigued by the ability to keep Caufield at such a bargain rate not just for the upcoming season but several more to come. I'd originally expected to keep Kuch and Miller for the two 5ths I own since I acquired Miller in a big trade in the offseason, but I don’t know anymore given how Miller has played and where Vancouver is headed.

Since it's pretty safe to assume you agree with my locks, what would you do with the four other keeper spots?

First off, your locks are indeed no brainers; but you weren't expecting me to say otherwise. I don't think there needs to be a lot of debate about your goalie keeper, as it has to be Hellebuyck. Looking at the most recent five seasons, he's the leader in cumulative games started by 19. I realize that doesn't sound like much when considering a five season stretch; however, if we look at the gap between second place and sixth place, it's only 18 starts. So yeah – he's a proven workhorse and, last season aside, he's also a very capable netminder. I realize in doing so you'd be getting only a small bargain in terms of the draft pick where he'd need to be taken, and giving up a keeper spot to do so. Still, I think given the set up of your league he has to be kept as a 3rd rounder. As for the other three goalies you could keep, I don't see them as bargains or safe bets. Yes, UPL could be a home run; but when he's bad he's really bad, such that I think there's a decent chance he just doesn't end up becoming a true starter. That having been said, I feel there's also a chance that he figures things out and shines. Yet he's already 24 years old and never had a GAA under 3.00 at any North American pro level. Feel free to take a flier on him again in the draft – although I wouldn't for what it's worth – but do not keep him.

That leaves you three more spots. I think ROR is too old and I worry about a post-UFA let down. I think Bennett is solid, but he's not a bargain at his keeper spot. As for Zacha, readers seem to be intrigued by him, and it's making me wonder if I'm missing something, because I see a player who had done this well previously but then regressed. Plus he turns 26 very soon and his stats this year are elevated due to a much higher than normal SH%. He also gets very little PP time. Does he go earlier than the 18th round in the next draft? Yes, definitely. But he's not a keeper given what he does – or, more appropriately, doesn't – bring to the table and in view of your other keeper choices. As for Tolvanen, I think he has better potential than Zacha; however, I still can't keep him in view of the other options you have.

Two players you didn't list were Josi and Compher. Granted, Josi makes little sense to keep in the first round as he can't go any earlier. But he's someone I'd definitely target early as a redraft. Compher is a UFA to be who I think will get inked by a team that will finally give him a chance to shine, and I believe he will do so. Can you keep him though? No, since as with Tolvanen you have too few spots and too many other guys. But don't forget about Compher come draft day.

Really it boils down to which three of Chychrun, Wilson, Caufield, Beniers, and Miller should be kept. The first one I'm eliminating is Miller. If he was doing anything close to what he did last season then he'd be a lock, but the fact that he's come back to earth in the season after he inked a huge deal shows that what we saw in 2021-22 was the result of unsustainable added effort to get paid. My guess is he goes right around that same round, maybe a bit earlier. The other four go much earlier, so he's not the best value. My other non-keep is Chychrun. As I discuss in more detail below, I agree with those who see Ottawa as likely to have a breakout next season ala what we're seeing from Buffalo. The difference is Ottawa has Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson. Chabot is a minute eater and Sanderson is a PP QB in the making. Chychrun likely will fare well; however, much like what we've seen in Colorado, there are only so many rearguard points to go around, and not enough to keep Chychrun at that round.

That puts your last three as Wilson, Beniers and Caufield. I'm worried about Wilson having the same issue as so many other rough and tumble forwards who hit an offensive wall as they reached or neared age 30. But he's such a monster in this format that I think you ride him for at least one more season. As for Beniers and Caufield, I'm not as wild about either one as much as many are; but their statures with their teams now and going forward, plus the prospect of being able to keep them in such great rounds for several more years, make them must keeps. Your final list of six is Kucherov, JRob, Hellebuyck, Wilson, Beniers, and Caufield. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Jamie)

I know it's early, but what do you think about J.J. Peterka? Will he get lost in the shuffle on a now very solid Sabres team, or can he rise to be a good producer in the next couple of seasons?

You're right about one thing – it is early to prognosticate about Peterka. I'll try to do my best given what I've seen thus far. What I like is the Sabres opted to keep him in the NHL despite their depth and his age making it not unreasonable to have sent him back to the AHL. Also, although his ice time hadn't increased as the season until recently, it also hadn't dropped. His SOG rate has been lousy and he's had double digits games with zero SOG and a recent six SOG game was sandwiched by contests in which he had zero and one SOG, so he can't find consistency in that area.

Looking at the Buffalo depth chart at LW, Peterka slots behind Jeff Skinner, who looks like he will be stapled to Tage Thompson, and, until recently, Casey Mittelstadt, who'd been doing very well since being converted from a center. But in Q4 Peterka has taken Mittelstadt's spot for the time being though, and played his best hockey such that he might have a home there, especially given Mittlelstadt's propensity to get injured. Or it could be a short term scoring burst, as Peterka also had a six point in seven games stretch earlier this season.

What about Peterka's metrics? Despite his recent scoring binge, his IPPs are 60.4% overall and 50.0% on the PP. As I've said before, an even halfway decent forward should be expected to be at 60% overall, so seeing him barely above that threshold after a scoring flurry is not great, and of course his PP IPP is even worse, which is a problem since the Sabres have many forwards capable of being put on PP1 or PP2. Also, it's not like this is a result of playing alongside the very best on the Sabres, as other than the past week or two, he's essentially been separated from the top Buffalo forwards. What that means is his IPPs should, if anything, be high. That they're this low under the circumstances is discouraging. Also, although only seven of his 20 assists have been secondary, if his SH% was higher it might've meant some of his primary assists would've been repackaged as goals, for no net scoring improvement.

In sum, Peterka is still young and had produced well at the AHL level. But his IPPs paint the picture of a player who is not a driver of offense, especially since they're this low without him even having spent much time with the best of the best on the Sabres. And he's lacking in SOG too, which won't help him force Buffalo's hand in terms of giving him ice time. If I have Peterka in a deep keeper, I hold and hope. But I'd be leery of giving up decent value for him in trade unless I'm a rebuilding team who can afford to wait or even to miss. Good question!

Question #3 (from Benjamin)

I'm wondering if I can get your take on Ilya Sorokin. Is he going to take it to the highest level, or just merely be very good?

Full disclosure – I've invested in a lot of Sorokin's hockey cards. Still though, I promise I won't let that prevent me from giving a purely objective answer. One thing to keep in mind about Sorokin is he turns 28 this season despite it being only his third NHL campaign. My guess is a lot of poolies don't realize he's this old; however, with goalies being able to stay elite well into their 30s, that's not cause for concern in and of itself.

Looking at Sorokin's numbers, he's on pace for his third straight season of more than two-thirds of his starts being quality starts. Not only is no other goalie who played in 20+ games on pace to do that even twice over this same three seasons, but Sorokin has three of the ten best QS percentages of all goalies in the entire NHL over these three campaigns. He also has two of the top five best GSAAs over the same stretch. To put that in perspective, no other goalie appears twice in the top 16. Sorokin also has the most cumulative shutouts over these three seasons with 15, and the highest total of any other goalie who played fewer games is 11, ironically by teammate Semyon Varlamov. Lastly, no one who has played in more games over the past two seasons has a better high danger save percentage. Also, his average goal distance is fourth best over the past two seasons among goalies who've played in at least 100 cumulative games.

Looking at other goalies since QS percentage was charted, no goalie had a higher percentage over his first three seasons, and only one goalie – interestingly the forgettable Niklas Backstrom – had a better cumulative GSAA. Sorokin's shutout total, which still can rise between now and the end of the season, also was the fifth highest, with all four above him having played in 35 more games at minimum, while his SV% puts him third, his GAA in ninth, and his goalie point share in fourth.

Here's the thing. Some of the other top names didn't pan out great long term. Not only was there Backstrom, but also Roman Chechmanek, Marty Turco, Antii Niemi, and Steve Mason. The ones who did end up having top tier careers, like Roberto Luongo, Henrik Lundqvist and Connor Hellebuyck were all younger than Sorokin when they embarked upon doing so. It could be a feast or famine situation despite all the success he's had.

We also don't know yet how he'll fare if/when tasked with being a true workhorse, as thus far he's had Varlamov in the fold. Varlamov is a UFA after this season, and most think that's when the training wheels will come off for Sorokin, so to speak. Can he be a 60+ start guy while still putting up the kind of stats he's been achieving? No one really knows, although for what it's worth Sorokin's SV% is worse for one day rest than for two or three in both this season and last, which is concerning since for most workhorse goalies that's the interval between starts.

In sum, there's a lot to like if you're a Sorokin owner, except when looking at other goalies who had the most success early and also who were also a bit older. As we've seen from Igor Shesterkin, who had a superb 2021-22 and is similar in age and experience as Sorokin, even a goalie who looks elite can come back to earth at least somewhat. If I was a Sorokin owner, I'd consider him a guy I want to hold. As far as trading for him though, I fear a high price already will be baked in, especially since his owners will be counting on Sorokin making a leap next season once Varlamov is likely out of the picture. I'd still look at trying to acquire him; however, you can't overpay because there is a chance he falters, or, even if he does succeed he might not get much better than he is now, and you don't want to try not to pay a rate for a player that already factors in a certain level of success, since at best you get what you paid for while there's a very real chance of disappointment. Good question!

Question #4 (from Teddy)

Let's assume Josh Norris is 100% healthy heading into the 2023-24 season. What should poolies expect from him? His 2021-22 campaign was so impressive in terms of goals and PPGs; however, the stellar play of Tim Stutzle seemingly has elevated him to top line center. Can Norris be the Dylan Cozens to Stutzle's Tage Thompson, or should expectations for Norris be tempered?

First of, it's not an exaggeration to say Norris was stellar last season, with 36 goals, 16 of which came on the PP, and in only 66 games. If we look at centers who averaged more goals and PPGs per game in one of their first three seasons by age 22, which is how old Norris was in his third campaign in 2021-22, we get Steven Stamkos, Joe Nieuwendyk and Mario Lemieux. That's it; those are the only three who met the criteria…….ever! We know Lemieux went on to be a superstar and Stamkos has had what will likely be a HOF career; and although Nieuwendyk faded a bit after a amazing early few seasons, he still had five campaigns of 85+ point scoring pace.

I also like the Cozens comparable because Ottawa's offense is poised to have a breakout next season that would rival what we've seen in Buffalo in 2021-22. All the same ingredients are there, except for maybe a truly elite d-man ala Rasmus Dahlin, although Ottawa's three blueliners of Thomas Chabot, Jakub Chychrun, and Jake Sanderson are pretty darn good in their own rights.

Although Tage Thompson is the unquestioned top line center in Buffalo, Cozens is putting up very solid numbers, thanks in large part to having a spot on PP1, which, given what Norris did in 2021-22, seems like it's likely to occur. Beyond that, Ottawa's top six will have, besides, Norris and Stutzle, the ageless Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk, who's turned into a scorer earlier than his brother did, plus the very solid Drake Batherson. That's five of six spots where one could see each scoring 70+ points, and ensures Norris will have quality linemates alongside him, even if it's only one of those three rather than two, in which case Alex Formenton could return or Matieu Joseph could step in.

Yes, it is true that in his limited action this season Norris wasn't on PP1; however, if he gets his footing and produces even close to how he did in 2021-22, a spot on the top unit should be there for him. Plus, if he was somehow relegated to PP2, it's likely that the Sens would try to spread around their offense and have one of Batherson, Giroux and DeBrincat there too, rather than all three on PP1. One or more of those three quality blueliners also would be on the unit, each of whom could be seen as a PP1 caliber rearguard on many NHL teams.

If I'm a Norris owner, I keep him and figure him to round back into form, and perhaps eventually have a bigger breakout given the comparables we saw above. If you want to try to get him in trade, I think now might actually be a better time than the offseason, as perhaps his owner is seeing what Stutzle is doing and panicking that Norris will be on the outside looking in, when in truth there should be room for both to do well, ala what is happening in Buffalo as well as in New Jersey, where even as Jack Hughes has soared, Nico Hischier is more than holding his own, and I'd argue the gap between Norris and Stutlze is less wide than that which separates Hughes and Hischier. Good question!

Question #5 (from Walt)

Next season my longstanding 12 team league is switching from 12F to four each of C, LW and RW. It's 27 player rosters, consisting of 4C, 4RW, 4LW, 6D, 2G, plus 5 Bench. No Farm or Minors. Points only (goalies get 3 points for a win, three more for a shutout), with daily moves allowed and no limit on FA pick-ups that can be made during the season. Each team gets up to eight keepers, of which the only restriction is no more than one can be a goalie. Right now there are 17 forwards on my roster, with 10 eligible as C, 6 as RW, and 7 as LW, assuming that their positional eligibility doesn't change between now and next season. I'm still pretty new to fantasy hockey and have never needed to deal with positional eligibility in the past, so I'm afraid I'll be at a disadvantage as compared to the other GMs, many of whom are fantasy veterans compared to me. How would you approach this?

Trust me when I say it sounds a lot scarier than it will be. This being a points only league will make the transition a lot easier, as you won't have to worry about things like FOW from wingers or players whose values will rise or fall depending on their multicat contributions. I'm not saying there'll be no adjustment period; however, it could be a lot worse if circumstances were different.

First, let's dissect the numbers. Twelve teams means 48C, 48RW, and 48LW starting, with likely another 50 or so on teams' benches, for a total of roughly 200 forwards owned. But not all positions are created equal. If we look at forwards who've played 40+ games in 2022-23, and using positional designation of nhl.com, a total of 17 centers were averaging at least a point per game, versus 12 for LW, and eight for RW. It's not a shock to see the numbers of centers much higher; but there being 50% more LWs than RWs is a bit surprising.

Going even further, assuming an equal number of players at each forward position are owned, then that would mean 67 at each position. Looking at the median for each position, the the 34th best points per game scoring rate is 0.84 for centers, 0.63 for LW and 0.61 for RW. Lastly, there's those at the lowest end, i.e., 67th best, which for centers equates to 0.59 points per game, while for LW it's 0.39 and for RW it's 0.32. The 67th best center is almost better than the 34th best LW or RW!

Admittedly many of these players will have eligibility at more than one position, especially RW and LW. But still, this data is clear-cut, and indicates you need to prioritize scoring RWs. In a perfect world you already have a couple. If you don't however, the time is now to try and land them, as in the offseason the other GMs will start looking more closely at this data. Don't hesitate to give up a higher scoring C or LW to get a RW that scores a bit less, since as you can see the drop off is so more pronounced.

How many pure centers should be kept? I hesitate to specify an exact number; however, I'd try to avoid more than three, maybe four. Your bench is not deep enough to have the luxury of having players who can only slot at center. How many players should be eligible at two or more positions? Again, there's no set number I'd say to have; however, more than half is a necessity, with around two-thirds to 75% being what I'd perhaps aim for.

As for keepers, I'd not worry too much about position there, as you have the ability to fill your roster via the draft. Keep the best players available unless that would mean several center only guys. When it comes to the draft, although this is a points-only league the things that matter in multicat still matter here, like high volume shooters, players who see lots of PP minutes, and those who are locked into a scoring line. Use the data above to guide you on roughly when you should take pure centers versus guys at LW or RW. Don't just go by a list of players and projected scoring. Positions matter. They're not all that matters, but they definitely matter and should impact your selections. Good luck!

Question #6 (from Aaron)

Like many, I've been waiting patiently for Sebastian Aho to become a superstar, or failing that, even a 90+ point player, as was expected when he posted 83 points at age 21 in 2018-19. Yet here we are four seasons later and not only has Aho failed to make the leap, but he's on pace for his worst campaign since that fateful 2018-19 season. Is there any hope he rises to the level that was once expected from him, or should we resign ourselves that he's basically on track to become the next Mark Scheifele, who's always good but never great?

You're not kidding about poolies having high expectations for Aho, as in Yahoo leagues his average draft position was 30th overall, ahead of the likes of Jake Guentzel, Jack Eichel, Jason Robertson, and Elias Pettersson to name just a few. But why was that, when, as you noted, with each passing season it seemed less and less likely that he was going to break out?

I think his high profile early success is a major reason, as that leaves an impression on poolies that tends to last a long time. Plus, since then he'd not gotten worse, making him still tantalizing. It also didn't hurt that he's on Carolina, which, although not a major market team, is a squad that has a lot of talent when it comes to fantasy.

A look at Aho's 2022-23 stats suggest he might just be snake bitten this season. His ice times, both overall and on the PP have remained almost unchanged in the past four seasons; however, in 2022-23 he's on pace for his highest SOG rate per game, but somehow also his worst PPPts per game since 18-19. In looking at his last three seasons, he tallied three PPPts per every ten games, while this season his rate is only 22%. If he was yet again producing at a rate of 30% instead, he'd have five more PPPts, and voila be back at the point per game mark. On top of that, his overall IPP, at 62.1%, is easily a career low, and from someone who'd been above the key 70% threshold in five of his previous six seasons. On the PP it's an even worse situation, with an IPP below 50% when only once previously had he been under 66%. On top of all that, his secondary assist rate is 25%, a career low, and a rate much lower than most centers. His OZ% is the second highest of his career, showing that the Canes might finally be looking at him to score more than he has. All in all, this paints the picture of a player who, had even some of these metrics been more in his favor, might indeed be at or above a 90 point pace.

If I'm in a keeper, I might make a play to get Aho now, while his numbers look worse than they should be. After all, there's little to no downside, and a chance to see him up his output next season. As for one year leagues, you'll have to see whether – and, if so, to what extent – him finishing under a point per game might have on his normally elevated draft spot. If he slips into the 50s at the draft, as I expect will occur, he might be worth grabbing in hopes he finally rises to a new level. Good question!

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For those reading this now, it's never too early to start providing me with mailbag questions, which you can do in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.