With a lot of league's playoffs wrapping up this weekend there isn't a lot of forward planning to do for now. I wanted to take a moment for what has become an annual tradition over here in Frozen Tools. We are using our regular season stats to look forward to playoff leagues and see if we can predict some unlikely playoff heroes.

This all started back when I wrote the Wild West column. I saw a column from Rick Roos on playoff heroes. He looked at players who were performing better in the playoffs than in their previous regular season and attempted to figure out if it was predictive of future performance. I  decided to go the other way to look at if there was anything in the season data that we could use to predict which players might be poised to be this year's unlikely playoff hero for our playoff pools. It has been going on for several years now, and while certainty isn't a fool proof method, it does give better results than picking a low rostered second- or third-line player at random – but more on the criteria in a minute.

First up, why do we care? Well in most playoff pools managers tend to go deep on a couple of teams that they think will go further in the playoffs, the rationale being a second/third line guy on a team that plays 25 games is going to be better than a top-line guy that plays only five. Having a method to prioritize those middle six skaters and finding the diamond in the rough on your selected teams is important.

The below paragraph is an excerpt from that original article and basically sums up what all of the playoff heroes had in common.

" An unlikely playoff hero played 60+ games in the regular season. The player was averaging between 0.4 and 0.7 points per game, was shooting around two shots a game, with a least a shooting percentage of 9%, getting somewhere between 1:00 and 2:15 minutes on the power play, and skating between 13:00 and 17:00 minutes of total time on ice. The data points can fluctuate slightly depending on the situation, and players might miss one point by a little, but this is the general target. Perhaps the single most important factor though is that they play for a team that is likely to get at least 17 games during the playoffs."

The idea is that an unlikely hero is a player that is already doing a little something with the opportunity they are being given (to demonstrate some competence, value in the coach's eyes, etc.), but has room for growth. That growth could be either in deployment (increases in power play time, or total time on ice), or in favorable spikes of luck (team/personal shooting percentage, IPP etc.). A player who is already spiking a high shooting percentage or getting massive deployment isn't likely to see a sudden, relatively unanticipated increase in value.

The most important factor for overall value though is that the player plays for a team that at least reaches the conference finals. Not only does that idea follow the "more games equal more points idea", but it also gives more opportunities for that breakout which maybe doesn't come until round two. So first things first, pick the teams you think are going to make the conference finals and use that to prioritize the list below.

The full list this year comprises 16 players (19 if we include teams outside the current playoff picture, but with a shot at making it) this year so picking your teams is an important exercise. For the purposes of this article, I have looked at various playoff projections and selected the top three teams with the highest likelihood to make the conference finals according to those sources. From the West we have Colorado, Edmonton, and Dallas. From the East we have Toronto, Carolina, and Boston, leaving us with five players. I have included the full list at the bottom of the article in case you would prefer to focus on other teams (New Jersey and Vegas are close-ranked fourth so would be worth reviewing in particular).

Just a note before we get started, a lot of this list is already seeing decent time on ice numbers. Usually our more successful players see a jump from the 13-15 range, but this list could certainly still bump up closer to 20 minutes a night, particularly with the possibility for extended overtimes.

Seth Jarvis is a really interesting name here. He is below two minutes in average power-play time, barely hitting 16 minutes of ice on average and shooting at a group low eight percent. His shot rate is fine, though could be a little higher and he has a history of getting great deployment and getting very hot for short periods of time. His deployment with Sebastian Aho at even strength and on the top power-play, has been inconsistent, but he has seen both in the past. It is a little odd to be listing some of these things as pluses, but the idea is a shift in either deployment or luck is likely to favor Jarvis given his current situation which makes him a candidate to provide some of that unexpected value in the playoffs.

On the flip side, Teuvo Teravainen. While he is currently on a higher point pace, he seems less likely to do something different in the playoffs. He is already approaching two and half minutes on the power-play and 17 minutes of total ice time. He has recently been spending more of his minutes playing a top line role with Aho and on the top power-play already but is still only putting up a 48-point pace. All things staying the same, Teravainen might produce a few more points than Jarvis, but Jarvis seems like the more likely to provide that jump.

I am also reasonably interested in Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall for their context. They are in a similar boat in a lot of ways. They haven't been living up to their names recently, though have put together a run or two this year. Their fall into second-tier deployment, with reasonably low time on ice, and power-play role leave some areas for improvement. In both cases the top power-play has been clicking though and replacing someone might be a long shot. Both have reasonable shot and points rates though so if they can just get a few more minutes in the playoffs more production could follow. 

The full list is included below (and includes Florida and Calgary who at the time of this writing have an outside shot at making the playoffs).

That is all for this week

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