Looking Ahead: Take a Crack on Tolvanen and the Kraken
Andrew Santillo
2023-03-31
Welcome back everyone! Is there a better time of year for sports? NCAA Final Four, MLB Opening Day, The Masters is right around the (Amen) corner, and of course, fantasy hockey playoffs. Bad break for your author in my main league and for those out there in really tough matchups I want to say we gave it our all. Is anyone else like me where if you have a bad day in fantasy, you set your lineups right away for the next day? Sends a message to your players maybe. Regardless, there's still fantasy hockey to be played and we're going to do our best to find some value here as the season winds down.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Joel Farabee, C/LW, Philadelphia Flyers (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 30% Fantrax, 7% Yahoo) – I suppose I can't write about Jakub Vrana in back-to-back weeks can I? Still, Joel Farabee has been a player that's been on my radar since earlier in the week for the Flyers.
So, let's talk this out, why Philadelphia and why Farabee. I think the Philadelphia part here might be a nice schedule perk with the Flyers playing both weekend days as well as one of the few that will play four times next week. They'll start this weekend string of games as well playing Buffalo on a back-to-back for the Sabres, and this is a Sabres club that has had their fair share of injuries recently. On Sunday they'll see Pittsburgh who will also be on a back-to-back and to be honest I don't think it matters who will be in net for the Penguins. It's been that bad there lately.
For Farabee he has seven points in his last seven games and I kind of like his line alongside Noah Cates and Owen Tippett. I think this addition is made for those in deeper leagues where you might really be stretched thin on the waiver wire. For those in smaller leagues, you may have other options out there, but given the roster numbers here I think Farabee could make some sense in larger leagues.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Eeli Tolvanen, LW/RW, Seattle Kraken (Rostered in 6% of ESPN leagues, 39% Fantrax, 7% Yahoo) – I looked all over my leagues and of course the Frozen Tools here on the site, to try and find a good Building Block to recommend but I drew a slight blank. Not so much on players, but I kept coming back to the schedule and one team in particular really stuck out. That, friends, is the Seattle Kraken. Roll up your sleeves and buckle up.
Seattle's opponents next week are – The Coyotes, Canucks, Coyotes again, and Chicago. For a club that's looking to distance themselves in the second Wild Card spot in the west, that is a gift from the schedule heavens. For that I looked for a player that was lower rostered that could potentially help your club and settled in the end on Eeli Tolvanen. I'd written about Tolvanen earlier in the season when his line was really playing well, and I think he makes a decent addition given what lies ahead for Seattle.
Odds are in your league, Vince Dunn and Oliver Bjorkstrand are probably rostered at the moment, so I'm going with Tolvanen here thinking more along the lines of how Seattle's future games could play out. There's really no one Kraken line that plays significantly more than the others, they tend to spread the ice time out a fair bit, but if Seattle is up late on any of their future bottom four opponents, than I could see the Tolvanen line getting good ice time. For Tolvanen, he's had a career season and can maybe be the lower rostered player that helps you finish off the season. Like Farabee, I think this goes more for larger leagues with more bench spots available to you. Â
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 60% of ESPN leagues, 76% of Fantrax, 54% Yahoo) – We all have that one player that we either draft or take off waivers (sometimes multiple) times in one season. It's like the kid that for whatever reason is in four of your classes in high school. For me, one of those players is Sam Bennett. I cut my losses with him two weeks ago when Florida had only two games on the schedule, and it might be time to do the same in your league.
Bennett has missed the past six games due to an undisclosed injury. Problem is as always, he is listed as day-to-day, essentially burning a valuable roster spot. Not only has this been a bigger problem with Florida as far as overall health, but missing Bennett also hurts those rostering Panther players who often skate with him. Right now, Anton Lundell has taken Bennett's spot at second line centre, and though he's been fine, he's a different fantasy player than Bennett is. If there's any value left here, it's that when Bennett does play, he can provide a multitude of stat categories that we like to see in fantasy. He not only shots the puck, but with 150 hits and 35 blocked shots, he makes for a great addition. For now, it might time to move on unless we learn that his return to the lineup is sooner rather than later.
The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets (Rostered in 97% of ESPN leagues, 97% Fantrax, 92% Yahoo) – This one hurts, but I think we need to highlight Josh Morrissey here as our Anchor moving forward.
The Jets have been on a slide as of late, and I thought maybe if they could coast throughout the regular season that they'd be alright. One of the attributes that has made this Jets team so much different than last season is that I thought that their defense made things so much easier on Connor Hellebuyck in net. Part of this was the stellar play that we got from Morrissey throughout much of the regular season. Up until he slowed down a tad bit in mid-January, Morrissey was a point-per-game player and someone who was valuable on fantasy rosters. Â
What's changed? Morrissey missed two games in the middle of March and since then in seven games back has just two points. He's still skating upwards of 26 minutes a night, but just eye test here, something looks off on the 28-year-old defenseman. I don't like to speculate if a player is harboring an injury, but he just looks like a different player on the ice the past few games out for Winnipeg. Sometimes in fantasy it's the little things that you catch on a player. How willing they are to go to the corners or simply how well a player is moving through the neutral zone, that can help determine if that player is a start or sit on a given night. For the time being I think Morrissey might be a sit.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs through March 31 to April 12
Seattle – Like we pointed out earlier, this is a beautiful upcoming schedule for Seattle. Two games against Arizona and one against Chicago is the perfect way to gain some points before playoffs begin.
Colorado – Another Love 'Em this week for the Avalanche, believe that's three weeks in a row? Same deal as last week, their second line is hurting bad but it's hard to dislike their upcoming schedule. Two games on the road against San Jose and one on the road against Anaheim on the horizon.
Toronto – With two games this weekend and three the next, Toronto is a Love 'Em this week. Next week they will see Boston which is always difficult, but they'll also play Columbus and Montreal. The Canadiens do always play this Leafs team close, but at the end of the day it is still Montreal we're talking about here.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
NY Islanders – It's a string of clubs with only two games on the schedule next week and first up is New York. Low action means less starts for Ilya Sorokin next week, a difficult player to fill for anyone rostering him in fantasy.
Washington – This is sort of an up and down Capitals club when I watch them lately. They're still technically in the race for the postseason, but that's going to be a tough hill to climb with all the clubs around them playing more frequently next week. The Capitals are a Leave 'Em for now.
Winnipeg – It might be a blessing for Winnipeg to have a lighter week upcoming, but for fantasy it makes for a tough task to replace those rostering a Jet. They will have a game on the smaller Wednesday slate next week that only features three games, but they'll also be in action on the much larger 16-game slate on Saturday.
Friday, March 31st to Thursday, April 6th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.32 – Away VAN – Home LAK ARI ARI |
Vancouver 4.25 – Home CGY LAK SEA CHI |
Arizona 4.24 – Away SEA SEA – Home DAL SJS |
Calgary 4.22 – Away VAN WPG – Home ANA CHI |
Dallas 4.20 – Away ARI COL – Home NSH PHI |
Steer Clear |
Washington 2.03 – Away MTL – Home NYR |
Tampa Bay 2.51 – Away NYR NYI – Home NYI |
NY Islanders 2.56 – Away TBL CAR – Home TBL |
Anaheim 2.81 – Away EDM CGY – Home EDM |
Chicago 2.82 – Away CGY VAN – Home NJD |
Saturday, April 1st to Friday, April 7th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.32 – Away VAN – Home LAK ARI ARI |
Pittsburgh 4.20 – Away NJD – Home BOS PHI MIN |
New Jersey 4.14 – Away CHI WPG – Home PIT CBJ |
Columbus 4.10 – Away TOR NJD – Home FLA OTT |
Carolina 4.04 – Away MTL NSH – Home NYI OTT |
Steer Clear |
Washington 2.03 – Away MTL – Home NYR |
Winnipeg 2.05 – Home NJD CGY |
Tampa Bay – Away NYR NYI – Home NYI |
NY Islanders 2.56 – Away TBL CAR – Home TBL |
NY Rangers 2.80 – Away WSH STL – Home TBL |
Sunday, April 2nd to Saturday, April 8th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.64 – Away VAN – Home ARI ARI CHI |
Toronto 4.27 – Away BOS – Home DET CBJ MTL |
Vancouver 4.25 – Home LAK SEA CHI CGY |
Pittsburgh 4.25 – Away NJD DET – Home PHI MIN |
Detroit 4.24 – Away TOR MTL – Home BUF PIT |
Steer Clear |
Tampa Bay 2.61 – Away NYR NYI OTT |
Chicago 2.71 – Away CGY VAN SEA |
Buffalo 2.74 – Away FLA DET – Home CAR |
NY Islanders 2.91 – Away CAR – Home TBL PHI |
San Jose 2.94 – Home COL COL EDM |
Monday, April 3rd to Sunday, April 9th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.64 – Away VAN – Home ARI ARI CHI |
Colorado 3.99 – Away SJS SJS LAK ANA |
Nashville 3.74 – Away DAL WPG – Home VGK CAR |
Vegas 3.65 – Away MIN NSH DAL – Home LAK |
Philadelphia 3.56 – Away STL DAL NYI – Home BOS |
Steer Clear |
Winnipeg 1.89 – Home CGY NSH |
Washington 2.14 – Away MTL – Home FLA |
NY Islanders 2.15 – Home TBL PHI |
Ottawa 2.61 – Away CAR FLA – Home TBL |
Tampa Bay 2.61 – Away NYR NYI OTT |
Tuesday, April 4th to Monday, April 10, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.52 – Away VAN ARI – Home ARI CHI |
Detroit 4.29 – Away MTL – Home BUF PIT DAL |
Florida 4.26 – Away WSH – Home BUF OTT TOR |
Vancouver 4.16 – Away LAK – Home SEA CHI CGY |
Toronto 4.07 – Away BOS FLA – Home CBJ MTL |
Steer Clear |
Tampa bay 2.61 – Away NYR NYI OTT |
Vegas 2.75 – Away NSH DAL – Home LAK |
Columbus 2.89 – Away TOR NJD – Home NYR |
New Jersey 2.90 – Away BOS – Home PIT CBJ |
Edmonton 2.95 – Away LAK ANA SJS |
Wednesday, April 5th to Tuesday, April 11th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.22 – Away VAN – Home ANA LAK ARI |
St. Louis 4.20 – Away CHI NSH – Home BOS PHI |
Pittsburgh 4.20 – Away NJD – Home NSH BOS PHI |
Florida 4.20 – Away TOR MTL CBJ – Home BUF |
Toronto 4.15 – Away OTT – Home FLA DET CBJ |
Steer Clear |
Tampa Bay 1.94 – Home WSH NYI |
Winnipeg 2.26 – Home DET NJD |
NY Islanders 2.57 – Away WSH TBL CAR |
Washington 2.64 – Away TBL – Home NYI NYR |
Anaheim 2.80 – Away SEA EDM CGY |
Thursday, April 6th to Wednesday, April 12th, 2023 |
Best Bets |
Seattle 4.61 – Away ARI VGK – Home ARI CHI |
NY Islanders 4.36 – Away WSH – Home TBL PHI MTL |
Boston 4.35 – Away PHI – Home TOR NJD WSH |
Dallas 4.16 – Away DET STL – Home PHI VGK |
Minnesota 4.09 – Away PIT CHI – Home STL WPG |
Steer Clear |
Edmonton 1.90 – Away SJS COL |
Nashville 2.60 – Away WPG CGY – Home CAR |
Ottawa 2.69 – Away FLA – Home TBL CAR |
St. Louis 2.79 – Away MIN – Home NYR DAL |
Montreal 2.61 – Away TOR NYI – Home WSH |
*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.