Looking Ahead: Take a Crack on Tolvanen and the Kraken

Andrew Santillo

2023-03-31

Welcome back everyone! Is there a better time of year for sports? NCAA Final Four, MLB Opening Day, The Masters is right around the (Amen) corner, and of course, fantasy hockey playoffs. Bad break for your author in my main league and for those out there in really tough matchups I want to say we gave it our all. Is anyone else like me where if you have a bad day in fantasy, you set your lineups right away for the next day? Sends a message to your players maybe. Regardless, there's still fantasy hockey to be played and we're going to do our best to find some value here as the season winds down.

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Joel Farabee, C/LW, Philadelphia Flyers (Rostered in 4% of ESPN leagues, 30% Fantrax, 7% Yahoo)
– I suppose I can't write about Jakub Vrana in back-to-back weeks can I? Still, Joel Farabee has been a player that's been on my radar since earlier in the week for the Flyers.

So, let's talk this out, why Philadelphia and why Farabee. I think the Philadelphia part here might be a nice schedule perk with the Flyers playing both weekend days as well as one of the few that will play four times next week. They'll start this weekend string of games as well playing Buffalo on a back-to-back for the Sabres, and this is a Sabres club that has had their fair share of injuries recently. On Sunday they'll see Pittsburgh who will also be on a back-to-back and to be honest I don't think it matters who will be in net for the Penguins. It's been that bad there lately.

For Farabee he has seven points in his last seven games and I kind of like his line alongside Noah Cates and Owen Tippett. I think this addition is made for those in deeper leagues where you might really be stretched thin on the waiver wire. For those in smaller leagues, you may have other options out there, but given the roster numbers here I think Farabee could make some sense in larger leagues.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Eeli Tolvanen, LW/RW, Seattle Kraken (Rostered in 6% of ESPN leagues, 39% Fantrax, 7% Yahoo)
– I looked all over my leagues and of course the Frozen Tools here on the site, to try and find a good Building Block to recommend but I drew a slight blank. Not so much on players, but I kept coming back to the schedule and one team in particular really stuck out. That, friends, is the Seattle Kraken. Roll up your sleeves and buckle up.

Seattle's opponents next week are – The Coyotes, Canucks, Coyotes again, and Chicago. For a club that's looking to distance themselves in the second Wild Card spot in the west, that is a gift from the schedule heavens. For that I looked for a player that was lower rostered that could potentially help your club and settled in the end on Eeli Tolvanen. I'd written about Tolvanen earlier in the season when his line was really playing well, and I think he makes a decent addition given what lies ahead for Seattle.

Odds are in your league, Vince Dunn and Oliver Bjorkstrand are probably rostered at the moment, so I'm going with Tolvanen here thinking more along the lines of how Seattle's future games could play out. There's really no one Kraken line that plays significantly more than the others, they tend to spread the ice time out a fair bit, but if Seattle is up late on any of their future bottom four opponents, than I could see the Tolvanen line getting good ice time. For Tolvanen, he's had a career season and can maybe be the lower rostered player that helps you finish off the season. Like Farabee, I think this goes more for larger leagues with more bench spots available to you.  

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers (Rostered in 60% of ESPN leagues, 76% of Fantrax, 54% Yahoo)
– We all have that one player that we either draft or take off waivers (sometimes multiple) times in one season. It's like the kid that for whatever reason is in four of your classes in high school. For me, one of those players is Sam Bennett. I cut my losses with him two weeks ago when Florida had only two games on the schedule, and it might be time to do the same in your league.

Bennett has missed the past six games due to an undisclosed injury. Problem is as always, he is listed as day-to-day, essentially burning a valuable roster spot. Not only has this been a bigger problem with Florida as far as overall health, but missing Bennett also hurts those rostering Panther players who often skate with him. Right now, Anton Lundell has taken Bennett's spot at second line centre, and though he's been fine, he's a different fantasy player than Bennett is. If there's any value left here, it's that when Bennett does play, he can provide a multitude of stat categories that we like to see in fantasy. He not only shots the puck, but with 150 hits and 35 blocked shots, he makes for a great addition. For now, it might time to move on unless we learn that his return to the lineup is sooner rather than later.

The Anchors (They’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets (Rostered in 97% of ESPN leagues, 97% Fantrax, 92% Yahoo)
– This one hurts, but I think we need to highlight Josh Morrissey here as our Anchor moving forward.

The Jets have been on a slide as of late, and I thought maybe if they could coast throughout the regular season that they'd be alright. One of the attributes that has made this Jets team so much different than last season is that I thought that their defense made things so much easier on Connor Hellebuyck in net. Part of this was the stellar play that we got from Morrissey throughout much of the regular season. Up until he slowed down a tad bit in mid-January, Morrissey was a point-per-game player and someone who was valuable on fantasy rosters.  

What's changed? Morrissey missed two games in the middle of March and since then in seven games back has just two points. He's still skating upwards of 26 minutes a night, but just eye test here, something looks off on the 28-year-old defenseman. I don't like to speculate if a player is harboring an injury, but he just looks like a different player on the ice the past few games out for Winnipeg. Sometimes in fantasy it's the little things that you catch on a player. How willing they are to go to the corners or simply how well a player is moving through the neutral zone, that can help determine if that player is a start or sit on a given night. For the time being I think Morrissey might be a sit.

Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs through March 31 to April 12

Seattle – Like we pointed out earlier, this is a beautiful upcoming schedule for Seattle. Two games against Arizona and one against Chicago is the perfect way to gain some points before playoffs begin.

Colorado
– Another Love 'Em this week for the Avalanche, believe that's three weeks in a row? Same deal as last week, their second line is hurting bad but it's hard to dislike their upcoming schedule. Two games on the road against San Jose and one on the road against Anaheim on the horizon.

Toronto
– With two games this weekend and three the next, Toronto is a Love 'Em this week. Next week they will see Boston which is always difficult, but they'll also play Columbus and Montreal. The Canadiens do always play this Leafs team close, but at the end of the day it is still Montreal we're talking about here.

Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

NY Islanders
– It's a string of clubs with only two games on the schedule next week and first up is New York. Low action means less starts for Ilya Sorokin next week, a difficult player to fill for anyone rostering him in fantasy.

Washington
– This is sort of an up and down Capitals club when I watch them lately. They're still technically in the race for the postseason, but that's going to be a tough hill to climb with all the clubs around them playing more frequently next week. The Capitals are a Leave 'Em for now.

Winnipeg
– It might be a blessing for Winnipeg to have a lighter week upcoming, but for fantasy it makes for a tough task to replace those rostering a Jet. They will have a game on the smaller Wednesday slate next week that only features three games, but they'll also be in action on the much larger 16-game slate on Saturday.

Friday, March 31st to Thursday, April 6th, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.32 – Away VAN – Home LAK ARI ARI
Vancouver 4.25 – Home CGY LAK SEA CHI
Arizona 4.24 – Away SEA SEA – Home DAL SJS
Calgary 4.22 – Away VAN WPG – Home ANA CHI
Dallas 4.20 – Away ARI COL – Home NSH PHI
 
Steer Clear
Washington 2.03 – Away MTL – Home NYR
Tampa Bay 2.51 – Away NYR NYI – Home NYI
NY Islanders 2.56 – Away TBL CAR – Home TBL
Anaheim 2.81 – Away EDM CGY – Home EDM
Chicago 2.82 – Away CGY VAN – Home NJD
Saturday, April 1st to Friday, April 7th, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.32 – Away VAN – Home LAK ARI ARI
Pittsburgh 4.20 – Away NJD – Home BOS PHI MIN
New Jersey 4.14 – Away CHI WPG – Home PIT CBJ
Columbus 4.10 – Away TOR NJD – Home FLA OTT
Carolina 4.04 – Away MTL NSH – Home NYI OTT
 
Steer Clear
Washington 2.03 – Away MTL – Home NYR
Winnipeg 2.05 – Home NJD CGY
Tampa Bay – Away NYR NYI – Home NYI
NY Islanders 2.56 – Away TBL CAR – Home TBL
NY Rangers 2.80 – Away WSH STL – Home TBL
Sunday, April 2nd to Saturday, April 8th, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.64 – Away VAN – Home ARI ARI CHI
Toronto 4.27 – Away BOS – Home DET CBJ MTL
Vancouver 4.25 – Home LAK SEA CHI CGY
Pittsburgh 4.25 – Away NJD DET – Home PHI MIN
Detroit 4.24 – Away TOR MTL – Home BUF PIT
 
Steer Clear
Tampa Bay 2.61 – Away NYR NYI OTT
Chicago 2.71 – Away CGY VAN SEA
Buffalo 2.74 – Away FLA DET – Home CAR
NY Islanders 2.91 – Away CAR – Home TBL PHI
San Jose 2.94 – Home COL COL EDM
Monday, April 3rd to Sunday, April 9th, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.64 – Away VAN – Home ARI ARI CHI
Colorado 3.99 – Away SJS SJS LAK ANA
Nashville 3.74 – Away DAL WPG – Home VGK CAR
Vegas 3.65 – Away MIN NSH DAL – Home LAK
Philadelphia 3.56 – Away STL DAL NYI – Home BOS
 
Steer Clear
Winnipeg 1.89 – Home CGY NSH
Washington 2.14 – Away MTL – Home FLA
NY Islanders 2.15 – Home TBL PHI
Ottawa 2.61 – Away CAR FLA – Home TBL
Tampa Bay 2.61 – Away NYR NYI OTT
Tuesday, April 4th to Monday, April 10, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.52 – Away VAN ARI – Home ARI CHI
Detroit 4.29 – Away MTL – Home BUF PIT DAL
Florida 4.26 – Away WSH – Home BUF OTT TOR
Vancouver 4.16 – Away LAK – Home SEA CHI CGY
Toronto 4.07 – Away BOS FLA – Home CBJ MTL
 
Steer Clear
Tampa bay 2.61 – Away NYR NYI OTT
Vegas 2.75 – Away NSH DAL – Home LAK
Columbus 2.89 – Away TOR NJD – Home NYR
New Jersey 2.90 – Away BOS – Home PIT CBJ
Edmonton 2.95 – Away LAK ANA SJS
Wednesday, April 5th to Tuesday, April 11th, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.22 – Away VAN – Home ANA LAK ARI
St. Louis 4.20 – Away CHI NSH – Home BOS PHI
Pittsburgh 4.20 – Away NJD – Home NSH BOS PHI
Florida 4.20 – Away TOR MTL CBJ – Home BUF
Toronto 4.15 – Away OTT – Home FLA DET CBJ
 
Steer Clear
Tampa Bay 1.94 – Home WSH NYI
Winnipeg 2.26 – Home DET NJD
NY Islanders 2.57 – Away WSH TBL CAR
Washington 2.64 – Away TBL – Home NYI NYR
Anaheim 2.80 – Away SEA EDM CGY
Thursday, April 6th to Wednesday, April 12th, 2023
Best Bets
Seattle 4.61 – Away ARI VGK – Home ARI CHI
NY Islanders 4.36 – Away WSH – Home TBL PHI MTL
Boston 4.35 – Away PHI – Home TOR NJD WSH
Dallas 4.16 – Away DET STL – Home PHI VGK
Minnesota 4.09 – Away PIT CHI – Home STL WPG
 
Steer Clear
Edmonton 1.90 – Away SJS COL
Nashville 2.60 – Away WPG CGY – Home CAR
Ottawa 2.69 – Away FLA – Home TBL CAR
St. Louis 2.79 – Away MIN – Home NYR DAL
Montreal 2.61 – Away TOR NYI – Home WSH

*For continued fantasy news and notes, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
WILLIAM EKLUND S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency SEA Players
19.8 CHANDLER STEPHENSON DANIEL SPRONG JADEN SCHWARTZ
17.3 JARED MCCANN ANDRE BURAKOVSKY MATTY BENIERS
16.1 EELI TOLVANEN YANNI GOURDE OLIVER BJORKSTRAND

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