Welcome back to The Journey, where we track the development of prospects as they excel in junior, make the NHL, and push towards stardom.

There are five 24-year-old goalies in the top 15 league-wide right now for Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx), a metric that calculates how far a goalie has exceeded or fallen short of their Expected Goal (xG) totals per Evolving Hockey:

Filip Gustavsson, +24.8 (6th overall)

Jake Oettinger, +19.23 (8th)

Jeremy Swayman, +17.18 (9th)

Carter Hart, +15.5 (11th)

Stuart Skinner, +12.91 (15th)

This week, we will dig into the stats to take a closer look at whether or not we can expect to see these five near the top of the fantasy goalie rankings next year and beyond. Goalie outcomes are notoriously difficult to divine, and masked men generally need a much longer runway before making an impact in the NHL. As Dobber reminds readers of his Prospect Goalie Rankings, "Most goalies are 25 or even 26 before they put up fantasy-worthy full-season stats. The only goalies to do it at 23 in the last 20 years are Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy. So 'at best' you are looking at 23 for the very elite."

The fact that these five have put up such noteworthy fantasy seasons at age 24 is very impressive to say the least. Although they might now seem like obvious candidates to remain in the upper echelon at the position moving forward, that was certainly not the case heading into 2022-23. Here is how each of the five were ranked in the preseason by writers from Fantrax, FantasyPros, CBS, Bleacher Report, and The Hockey News respectively (NR = Not Ranked):

Gustavsson: NR, 63, NR, NR, NR

Oettinger: 10, 8, Tier 2, 11, 14

Swayman: 12, 15, Tier 4, 13, 18

Hart: 18, 32, Tier 6, 21, 34

Skinner: NR, 54, NR, NR, NR

Oettinger and Swayman were the most highly regarded of this bunch heading into the year, while Gustavsson and Skinner in particular came out of nowhere. Hart has had a ton of ups and downs over his young career and has burned many fantasy managers at his low points. The tiers that these goaltenders were mostly sorted into during the preseason included phrases like: non-starters, bottom of the barrel, rebounders, dart throws, question marks. Their potential seemed strong but each faced various challenges, including having to overcome established starters like Marc-Andre Fleury in Minnesota (Gustavsson), Linus Ullmark in Boston (Swayman), and Jack Campbell in Edmonton (Skinner).

Filip Gustavsson (MIN)

I see two main concerns with Gustavsson moving forward: 1) Jesper Wallstedt (2021, 21st overall) is increasingly excelling at the AHL level and has been billed as the Wild's goalie of the future, and 2) Gustavsson's contract is up after this campaign while Fleury still has another year left at $3.5 million. Has Gustavsson's excellent performance priced him out of Minnesota? Can the Wild manage without him?

Fleury, now 38 years old, has not had a bad season: 2.81 GAA, 6.30 GSAA, 0.909 SV%, 58.1 Quality Start %, 60.9 Quality Week %. Regardless, he has been consistently outshone by Gustavsson down the stretch. Could Fleury carry the Wild to the playoffs in 2023-24 as a 39 year old? It's possible but the odds are against him, Hall of Fame-level career or not.

Here are the results of Micah Blake McCurdy's look into the effects of ageing on NHL players:

The ability of skaters to make plays and score goals peaks surprisingly early but declines fairly gradually. Goaltenders, however, tend to peak between the ages of 25 and 28, and their performance generally declines quite steeply into their 30s. Fleury is now at the extreme right of that graphic, which does not bode well.

Meanwhile, the Wild have nearly $15 million in dead cap for the next two years from the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise. Pending UFAs at year end will include Oskar Sundqvist, Ryan Reaves, Frederick Gaudreau, Gustav Nyquist, Marcus Johansson, Matt Dumba, and John Klingberg. Factoring in pending RFAs Calen Addison, Mason Shaw, Brandon Duhaime, and Sam Steel on top of those names, Minnesota does not have a ton of space to work with heading into the off-season. Those are mostly depth names, but that is a lot of depth to navigate either re-signing, acquiring, or promoting from within.

The Wild seem to be at an awkward moment in net: Fleury is too old and Wallstedt too young to rely on either exclusively or even in tandem, but Gustavsson, whose success this year was unexpected, may not be affordable as a stopgap. In the team's favor in terms of contract negotiations is that Gustavsson is still relatively unproven; this is his first year playing over 2000 minutes, and he was pretty far below league average in his only other year (with OTT) playing over 1000 minutes.

For whatever reason, something has seriously clicked for him this year: he has posted the third-highest Quality Week % (47.6) in the league behind only Ullmark and Ilya Sorokin, meaning he has been incredibly consistent from week to week—the defining characteristic of goaltender success in head-to-head fantasy formats. The Wild have been fairly strong defensively but sit roughly mid-pack for most key team metrics. That lends strength to the perception generated by his individual stats that Gustavsson has vastly outperformed his situation in 2022-23.

Gustavsson was perfect! 👏

Filip Gustavsson (@filipgus) makes 31 saves for his second @pepsi shutout of the season! pic.twitter.com/sdaEnEAlKJ

— NHL (@NHL) March 5, 2023

If he switches teams this off-season, his landing place could have a dramatic impact on what we see from him in 2023-24. Having handcuffed the two in a couple keeper leagues, however, I personally hope he re-ups long term in Minnesota to form an exciting tandem with Wallstedt. Even if he does get priced out of the Twin Cities, I am reasonably confident in Gustavsson remaining an above-average fantasy asset in net moving forward. Watch his contract situation closely over the summer.

Jake Oettinger (DAL)

How many goalies would you value higher than Oettinger in fantasy right now?

I think he now belongs in Tier One alongside Andrei Vasilevskiy, Igor Shesterkin, and Ilya Sorokin. Ullmark is the top Vezina candidate this year, of course, but his elite success is so far a career outlier. The Bruins' core is hitting the nasty side of the ageing curve while the Stars are bursting with young talent; for that reason, I would still prefer Oettinger to Ullmark. The three Russians mentioned above are all elite goaltending assets, but I would have to weigh things out heavily before taking even them ahead of the young American.

Jake Oettinger vs. Flames pic.twitter.com/TaQz6nwqXd

— Saad Yousuf (@SaadYousuf126) March 6, 2023

While Gustavsson has Fleury and Wallstedt, Swayman has Ullmark, and Skinner has Campbell, Oettinger has very little up-and-coming goaltending talent to contend with in the Stars' pipeline. Mathew Murray has posted strong AHL results this year but looks like he will max out as an NHL backup. The Stars' net firmly belongs to Oettinger for the next decade plus, and he should be as close to plug-and-play as goalies come in fantasy.

Jeremy Swayman (BOS)

Heading into the New Year, I projected (with a touch of cheekiness) that Swayman will overtake Ullmark in 2023 as Boston's 1A option in net. That is a gut feeling to some extent—Swayman has that "unstoppable" feel to him that I ascribe to prospects from time to time. But also, Ullmark (29) is five years older than Swayman, and while he has been a solid goalie (58.8 career QS%), his GSAA this year (46.33) is an astounding 35 points higher than any of his previous seasons. By contrast, Swayman is having the best season of his career but his GSAA (12.74) is only a few points higher than his career average.

RE: McCurdy's chart on age-related decline, Ullmark is currently fighting the odds by posting his best season at age 29, while Swayman is entering the statistically most promising window between ages 24 and 25. The main questions with Swayman are: 1) How much better can he become? and 2) How soon and how dramatically will the Bruins hit their imminent age-related decline?

Boston's core consists of David Pastrnak (26), Brad Marchand (34), Patrice Bergeron (37), Charlie McAvoy (25), plus Ullmark (29) and Swayman (24). Overall, they have the seventh-highest average age in the league with 28.69. Leading the list are the Penguins and Capitals, who have each gone all-in on building around Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin and Alex Ovechkin/Nicklas Backstrom respectively, but the other four teams above Boston in average age might surprise you: Tampa Bay (29.3), Minnesota (28.84), Carolina (28.78), and Colorado (28.7). Personally, I think of Minnesota, Carolina, and Colorado in particular as "young" teams, though it is true that their core star players are on average much younger than Boston's. Boston's prospect pool is certainly worse than those three as well.

Still, perhaps the Bruin's imminent age-related decline has been exaggerated somewhat in the hockey zeitgeist. If Boston can get another star-level season or two out of Bergeron (UFA this summer) and several more from Marchand, there would be no reason to panic in terms of assessing Swayman's immediate future. After all, this is a team that is currently rewriting the record book with their regular season dominance. Their top line is sublime, certainly, but this team has very strong systems that are conducive to goalie success. Looking beyond that "Perfection Line," it is actually a bit mystifying how this team has dominated so thoroughly this year. They are the true definition of a team-first mentality trumping individual success.

One further wrinkle when assessing Swayman's future success is the fact that he is also a RFA this summer, whereas Ullmark is signed for two more years at $5 million per. The Bruins will have several big-name UFAs to handle, including Bergeron, David Krejci, and Tyler Bertuzzi. Conventional wisdom says to follow the money when it comes to determining a general split in goalie workload; assuming the Bruins are able to re-sign Swayman, it will be interesting to see whether his value exceeds or falls short of Ullmark's. Regardless, I have invested in Swayman wherever I can. He seems poised to be one of the NHL's elite netminders for years to come.

Jeremy Swayman is him pic.twitter.com/wAEiHq0tig

— p – Dani (@danimilczarek) April 1, 2023

Carter Hart (PHI)

This is Hart's fifth NHL season and he is only 24 years old. As Dobber's spiel in the intro underscores, it is incredibly rare for a goalie to enter the league at 19 and post results like Hart has. Nevertheless, his future as a fantasy asset has a ton of question marks surrounding it.

I still sense a lot of bitterness and distrust towards Hart in fantasy these days. That is because after posting two solid seasons to start his career (combined GSAA of 11.82), he then turned in a couple true stinkers (combined GSAA of -25.66). Now he is putting up a very close facsimile to his first year in the league—which is to say, not spectacular but quite solid.

I actually see a similarity here between Hart and Joonas Korpisalo. Although it has been surprising for many to see Korpisalo's immediate success since moving to Los Angeles at the deadline, there was an interesting sign that his might happen: his conventional fantasy numbers with Columbus were not great (0.911 SV%, 3.17 GAA) but he managed to post an impressive GSAA of 6.7 despite playing for the worst team in the NHL. That means he was performing much better than a league-average goalie would have in those challenging circumstances. Move him to a better context and voila…he is seemingly suddenly one of the better goalies in the league.

Hart has accomplished something similar this year by putting up a 7.26 GSAA on the seventh-worst team in the league. While Philly has limped along with a minus-41 goal differential, their starter has re-established himself as a decent fantasy option between the pipes. If his team can finally take a meaningful step forward over the next few years, we could easily see a statline similar to his second year in the league (24 wins, 2.42 GAA, 0.914 SV%, 58 QS%) moving forward.

I wrote last week about a number of young Flyers who have taken noticeable steps forward lately. Throw Bobby Brink (last year's leading NCAA scorer), Cutter Gauthier, Emil Andrae, and Samuel Ersson into the mix, on top of a core consisting of Hart, Ivan Provorov, and Joel Farabee (?), and this could be a young, hungry team next year. So far, however, the Flyers have finished 22nd, 6th, 19th, 29th, and 26th over Hart's five-year tenure. They still lack true top-of-the-lineup star power, and it is hard to shake the feeling that this is a team that could be mired in mediocrity indefinitely. Take that into account when valuing Hart as a fantasy asset.

What a save by Carter Hart 😱 pic.twitter.com/t38y7tMfh6

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) March 25, 2023

Stuart Skinner (EDM)

The other big surprise on this list, Skinner overtook Campbell in 2022-23 to claim the 1A starter's role on a boom-bust Oilers team led by two legitimate superstars. Similar to Hart, his counting stats have not exactly blown the doors down this year (25 wins, 2.88 GAA, 0.911 SV%). But his strong GSAA (9.66) and GSAx (12.91) suggest that he has turned in an excellent season. Should he be considered "the man" for Edmonton heading into next year?

While Campbell's numbers have been in a freefall since his strong first quarter with Toronto in 2021-22, Skinner's have been on the rise for several years now, dating back to his time in the AHL. He spent three years in the minors with Bakersfield, where his GAA (3.31 → 2.38 → 2.21) and SV% (0.892 → 0.914 → 0.920) improved noticeably with each campaign. He has similarly improved over his two years in the NHL so far, posting a higher QS% (46.2 → 54.3) and GSAA (2.13 → 9.66) this year than last.

Skinner is seemingly trending up in lockstep with the Oilers as a whole; they are currently tied with the Wild for seventh-overall in the standings, and their 300 goals lead the league—18 more than the first-place Bruins. Offence will never be a problem for this Edmonton team, so if Skinner represents a real solution in net, that could be the missing piece they needed to experience sustained success in the playoffs.

Further, unlike Swayman and Gustavsson, Skinner offers contract certainty: he is signed at $2.6 million per through the end of 2026. Campbell is signed at $5 million per until 2027, so there is a danger that he rebounds at Skinner's expense. In an ideal world for Skinner owners in fantasy, he plays the 1A to Campbell's 1B, and the two challenge and keep each other fresh throughout McDavid's peak years. The potential is here in spades, making Skinner more than worth a spot on your fantasy roster.

SENSATIONAL SKINNER 🤯

Stuart Skinner earns his 1st @pepsi shutout of the season with an amazing 43-save performance against the Kings. pic.twitter.com/3UM92BgcJV

— NHL (@NHL) March 31, 2023

Thanks for reading! Follow me on Twitter @beegare for more prospect content and fantasy hockey analysis.