Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where one is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

It's hard to believe this is the last edition of Goldipucks before the end of the regular season; yet sure enough we've reached that point. This is where under the hood player analysis is most important, lest you fall victim to looking at season-long stats, which, as you'll see in two of the cases here, can be deceiving. With that out of the way, let's dive into covering the three skaters this month, who are Alex DeBrincat, Anze Kopitar and Carter Verhaeghe. Once again your task is to try and deduce which of the three is too hot, who is too cold, and whose stats are indeed what they should be. Stats are all current through March 31st games.

Alex DeBrincat (75 games, 25G, 36A 246 SOG, 28 PPPts, 19:06 TOI, 4:02 PP, 66.8% PP%)

Drafted in the second round in 2016, DeBrincat proceeded to score at a rate better than two points per game in juniors that same season, earning him a ticket directly to the Windy City for 2017-18. And looking at DeBrincat's pro numbers, he alternated between great and just okay seasons, until the two most recent campaigns, where his scoring rates were 88 and 78. So when he arrived in Ottawa this season, expectations were high, even though he'd be apart from frequent linemate Patrick Kane. Thus far he has not fared nearly as well as poolies had hoped. Is this just a prolonged adjustment period, or was DeBrincat's success a by-product of playing alongside Kane? Data suggests the former, signifying that DeBrincat should have marked improvement in 2023-24.

If you look at DeBrincat's Frozen Tools page and, specifically, his top three most frequent deployments at even strength during each quarter of 2022-23, you'll notice one name conspicuously absent is that of Tim Stutzle, who has become a star forward as 2022-23 has unfolded. In fact, the two have shared the ice at for only about 12% of DeBrincat's even strength shifts this season. Interestingly though, despite this they were on the ice together for six of DeBrincat's 33 even strength points, or 18%. The takeaway is DeBrincat could've been benefitted by playing with a better center. Fortunately, next season Josh Norris should be back to full health, giving DeBrincat a major upgrade from the likes of Shane Pinto and Ridly Greig.

Also, although it's likely safe to say with the benefit of hindsight that DeBrincat's 20.6% SH% in 2020-21 was unsustainably high, it being 10.2% this season represents a 180 in that it's now unsustainably low. After all, this season his SOG rate per game is virtually identical to what it was for 2021-22. While it is true that he has taken a higher percentage of shots from 31+ feet compared to last season, his rate from 0-15 feet isn't lower and the difference from 31+ feet from last season to now isn't so pronounced to see his SH% as low as it is, especially when, in addition, his rate of hitting posts and crossbars is virtually unchanged. What if DeBrincat was shooting the same as he did last season, which also was essentially identical to his prior career rate? He'd have 12 more goals and be just below the point per game mark ala where he was for 2021-22.

Also, although DeBrincat's SOG rate is unchanged from last season, it's a career best 10.3 per 60 minutes. Moreover, whereas last season he had a total of 62 PP SOG in 82 games, for the 2022-23 campaign he's averaged better than one PP SOG per game. Although his PPPt rate is slightly higher this season versus last, his PPG rate is lower, which should not be the case given the number of pucks he's firing on net with the man advantage. Although someone currently on the Ottawa PP1 likely will be pushed aside in favor of Norris next season, chances are it won't be DeBrincat given his PPG acumen, as he's tied for second on the team in that department.

What about player comparables? Three times by age 24 DeBrincat averaged at least a goal per every other game and 0.9 points per game, yet not better than 1.1 points per game. If we look at other players by that same age and dating back to 1990-91, the only other to also do so three times is Ilya Kovalchuk, who, although he played his best at the beginning of his career, still had two more point per game seasons at age 26 and beyond, plus had his career stalled by going to the Devils, and likely would've been more of a success had he not do so. In all, a pretty solid comparable.

The other thing to like about DeBrincat's 2022-23 numbers is only eight of his 36 assists have been secondary, which is a tiny fraction. Beyond that, his team's 5×5 team shooting percentage when he's been on the ice is 6.7%, versus 9.1 last season and twice having a mark above 10.6%. Also, DeBrincat has had solid IPPs of 69.0% and 71.8% overall the past two seasons overall, versus 64.2% this season. On the drop on the power play is more pronounced, as it's 59.6% for 2022-23 after having been 70.0% and 75.0% the past two seasons. Yes, one would think that by playing with worse players at ES his overall IPP should higher; but as we saw in Chicago, DeBrincat plays his best when he's among the best, as demonstrated by such high IPPs despite being tethered to Patrick Kane, whose overall IPP always was high. Unlike most, DeBrincat apparently needs talent around him to bring to life his own skill, and when he plays with lesser players he falls to their level rather than elevating them.

An RFA this summer, DeBrincat hasn't played so well as to cause his price to skyrocket; and that might be a good thing for both him and Ottawa because it means the Sens could afford to bring him back, where he'd likely slot alongside a back to health Josh Norris. When that happens, based on the data we saw DeBrincat should at least return to the 0.9-1.1 points per game rate that he was in three of the prior four seasons. As such, his 2022-23 was TOO COLD, and he gets a rating of 2.0.

Anze Kopitar (75 games, 26G, 40A, 153 SOG, 17 PPPts, 20:25 TOI, 3:04 PP, 58.6% PP%)

Although Kopitar is putting up his normal numbers this season, father time is ticking such that he turns 36 before the start of next season and will have played more than 1300 career games between regular seasons and playoffs. And the Kings have no shortage of players ready, willing, and able to stake a claim at the top line center spot. Can we count on Kopitar to continue playing this well in 2023-24 and beyond? Probably not.

Although this is Kopitar's 16th season, and only once has he failed to average double digits in SH%, his mark of 17.0% for 2022-23 would be the second best of his career. Moreover, it's nearly twice as high as it was just last season. One could argue it's due to him being more of a selective shooter, as his SOG per game rate is down over 25% from 2021-22; but when he had a similar SOG rate in 2020-21 his SH% was only 11.0%.

Looking more closely, his scoring spike was a result of a Q3 that is beyond unsustainable, potting 12 goals on 37 SOG, on his way to 24 points in 19 games. Dating back to the second quarter of 2021-22 and including Q4 of 2022-23 so far, he tallied 72 points in 93 games, for a scoring rate of 63 points. Kopitar's 2022-23 numbers are bolstered by a quarter where he caught fire to an extent that would be unsustainable for the most potent snipers, and is in stark contrast to the stats that he has posted in over a season's worth of games dating back to 2021-22. As such, I'd go so far as to say his Q3 should be disregarded as an outlier.

Looking also at Kopitar's ice times, they're down both overall and on the PP. In fact, his TOI is on pace to be the lowest it's been since 2014-15, when, incidentally, he had one of the least productive seasons of his career. But Kopitar's 5×5 team shooting percentage of 9.6% is the highest it's been since he was a rookie, and only two times has it even been over 9.0%. All this at age 35. Yes, those are warning bells you're hearing.

Let's examine player comparables. With 11 seasons of a scoring pace between 0.85 and 1.0 by age 35, Kopitar is the leader for all time. Who else had high numbers, and how did they fare at age 36 and beyond? The next highest totals of NHLers who played to age 36 and beyond were by Mats Sundin and Henrik Sedin, each of whom did so seven times. Sedin played until age 37, with identical 50 points in 82 games outputs at age 36 and 37. Sundin had a point per game season at age 36, although he also had one at age 35 and had better scoring rates than Kopitar throughout his early 30s. He then retired after playing part of a season at age 37. Sundin isn't a good basis for comparison due to outperforming Kopitar substantially, leaving Sedin as perhaps a better model, as he had 73 points at age 34 and then 55 in 74 games at age 35. If Sedin is indeed the best comparable, that's not ideal for where Kopitar's production might be headed.

Something else to note about Kopitar is his declining man advantage output. In 2020-21, he had 23 PPPts in just 56 games, which is one more than he had in 25 extra contests for the 2021-22 campaign. This season he's averaging fewer than one per four games. The last two times he failed to best that threshold his scoring rates were 61 (2018-19) and 56 points (2016-17). Not only is he doing better than he should given his poor man advantage output, but unlike in his past seasons his downward trend at this age makes it so he's less likely to rebound the following season, as he'd done previously.

Whereas his PP scoring rate has been dropping, his secondary assist rate has been ticking upward to 45%, marking just the second time it's been over 40% in the past five campaigns, suggesting he's benefitting from unsustainable points. All the while what is remaining constant is Kopitar's OZ% being below 50%, which would be the sixth straight season for that to occur. With younger LA talent needing to acclimate to the NHL, chances are he'll see that number either stay where it is or, more likely, drop further.

Kopitar has been a consistent scorer for nearly his entire career, even if he never was in the NHL's highest scoring echelon. But despite his scoring rate not yet having dropped, he might be running out of gas before our eyes, and right at a time when LA has youngsters ready to take on larger roles. Kopitar had one amazing quarter this season; but before and since that played just okay for what amounted over a full season's worth of games. Looking at his metrics, there isn't much reason for optimism in terms of him bouncing back, especially, to say it again, at his age. As such, Kopitar was TOO HOT for 2022-23 and gets a rating of 9.0, as he's more likely to be a 60 to perhaps 65-point player next season.

Carter Verhaeghe (75 gms, 36G, 30A, 258 SOG, 13 PPPts, 17:41 TOI, 2:18 PP, 40.2% PP%)

Recently anointed the most underrated in fantasy hockey by your votes, Verhaeghe was drafted in 2013 by the Leafs and traded twice before landing on the Lightning, the team which would give him his first taste of NHL action at the not so young age of 24 and after he'd logged well over 200 career games in the AHL. But Verhaeghe was gone from the Lightning following that season due to its cap crunch and Verhaeghe being an RFA. He inked a deal with the Panthers and to the surprise of I'm guessing most everyone he posted 36 points in just 43 games. Although he took a bit of a step back in 2021-22, he still finished with a 58-point scoring pace. This season he's on track to score at a career high rate. Is he a late blooming star in the making, or has he been propped up by his linemates plus his team? Looking at the data, he seems like he's every bit the real deal.

The concern with Verhaeghe all along has indeed been that he's a passenger whose scoring gets elevated by virtue of the linemates with whom he skates and the team he's on. Guess what – his overall IPP in each of his Panther seasons has been 71.4%+. Numbers that high, and with that consistency, signify that Verhaeghe is a driver of offense, rather than just riding coattails of better linemates. Moreover, that number is tops among all Panther forwards for 2022-23. His overall IPP was second highest last season too, when the Panthers become the first team in 25 seasons to average more than four goals per game. So Verhaeghe is a scorer, plain and simple. This also means there should be a cemented spot for him in the top six.

The consistency doesn't stop there, as his 5×5 team shooting percentage has been 8.6-9.1% in his three Panthers seasons. That figure is neither high nor low, and thus his stats for this season, which are above his prior two, are all the more justified. It's a similar story for SH%, as although Verhaeghe has upped his SOG per game rate by 60%, his SH% is barely less than it was for 2022-23 and still a healthy 14.0%. Yes, it's true that his added shots have resulted in a higher percentage of SOG from 31+ feet; but his totals for 0-15 feet, 16-40 feet and 31+ feet are virtually identical, making them sustainable. And lastly, his OZ% has been steady as they come, ranging between 51.6% and 52.6% in his three Panther seasons. So the fact that he's been able to up his scoring without seeing any of those totals spike seemingly validates the output as being realistic.

Why some are skeptical about Verhagehe's production is his lack of PPPts. Last season a mere three of his 55 points came on the PP. To help put that into better perspective, of the 2123 instances of a forward scoring 55+ points in a season dating back to 1990-91, just two had fewer PPPts than Verhaeghe's three in 2022-23 – Pascal Dupuis in 2011-12 and Mike Keane in 1992-93.

If we expand the list to those with five or fewer, we get Nicolaj Ehlers in 2019-20 and Martin Straka in 1992-93, with Ehlers, as we know, being a skilled forward and Straka going on to have two point-per-game seasons and four campaigns of 70+ points. This season Verhaeghe, although certainly not piling on the PPPts, has managed to hit double digits. Still, the lowest PPPts total of anyone with more points is 16 (versus his 13), so he's still lagging in that area. Verhaeghe is tied for sixth in even strength goals, with all those who are higher than him either on pace to score 100+ points this season or having accomplished the feat in a prior campaign. I feel it's safe to say that Verhaeghe's scoring rate can be seen as "for real" despite his lack of many PPPts.

If there is one area of concern for Verhaghe it's his secondary assist rate, which is 56.7% after being 44.7% and 38.5% in his prior two Florida seasons. Still, the impact that's had is likely minimal and carries less weight than his impeccable IPP numbers. Speaking of which, if Verhaghe was to get more PP time, as he has at times of late, he could potentially do well there too, as his PPIPP this season is 61.9% and two seasons ago it was 66.7%. Those are not high percentages by any means, especially since he'd normally taken the ice with less talented players when he did manage to get a PP shift; however, they certainly could be worse and in fact might even make a case for him to continue to see more PP time.

It's not often that I'm genuinely shocked by data; however, upon seeing Verhaeghe's overall IPPs as a Panther I was floored. I figured he was being carried by better players, when in truth he's as much responsible for the scoring that occurs when he's playing as others. Dare I say that his career could follow the trajectory of Joe Mullen, who likewise didn't make it to the NHL until he was 24 and then proceeded to get better and better. Granted, Mullen's career was one of a Hall of Famer, and I'm not saying that'll occur with Verhaeghe; however, like Mullen (or Brad Marchand, who didn't have his first double digits PPPt total until age 28), it's possible that Verhaghe is just scratching the surface, especially if he can stake out a spot on Florida's PP1. But I don't want to get ahead of myself, as for 2022-23 Verhaghe was JUST RIGHT and gets a rating of 4.75, as I see him as a 70-75 point per game player going forward, with the chance to really explode if given the kind of PP time that both Mullen and Marchand eventually received.

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Questions for Mailbag

My next monthly mailbag still has plenty of room for questions. To get yours to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.